Talking Points - Black Caviar Lightning

A look at the key points of interest out of Saturday's Group 1 feature

COOLANGATTA winning the Black Caviar Lightning Picture: Colin Bull / Sportpix

Coolangatta might have, as Matt Hill said, announced herself in Saturday's Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington, but the main talking point out of the Group 1 was the performance of Nature Strip.

The two-time Australian Horse of the Year and 'world's best sprinter' was unplaced as a $1.95 favourite.

He was given a Timeform assessment of 112, which lends weight to the growing number of racing fans who consider his career at the crossroads.

Only in last year's Challenge Stakes, when he finished third behind Eduardo and Shelby Sixtysix and earned a 108 rating, has he rated worse in his past 17 starts, which date back to The Everest of 2020.

Saturday's number was his lowest first-up figure since he went 109 when unplaced in the 2020 Lightning, won by Gytrash.

He ran to 117 when first-up in the following campaign, but had not run below 124 in his next four campaigns, which included a career first-up peak of 127 in the Concorde Stakes in September 2021.

Saturday's figure was a regression from the 119s he ran in The Everest and Champions Sprint to round out his spring campaign, which is a worrying decline for a horse who and had not strung together consecutive sub-124 performances since the start of 2021.

Nature Strip's failure stole some of the spotlight from Coolangatta, who now has claims on being considered the best 1000m horse in Australia, having won our only two Group 1s over that distance.

The daughter of Written Tycoon rated 118 on Saturday, which was two pounds higher than her win in the Group 1 Moir Stakes last spring.

It was the same figure returned by the previous female horse to win the Lightning – In Her Time, in 2019 – but was two pounds inferior to the previous filly to win, Regimental Gal in 2004, and one pound down on Isca, who won in 1999.

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained filly is now bound for the Group 1 King's Stand Stakes (1007m) at Royal Ascot in June, a race that four Lightning winners have won since 2003.

The sobering news for Coolangatta's team is that even accounting for the four-pound allowance for fillies and mares, she is down on what those horses did in the Lightning and in England.

Choisir went 126 in both races, Takeover Target was 123 in the Lightning and 126 in the King's Stand, Miss Andretti 122 and 127, while Scenic Blast 124 and 128.

Nature Strip was beaten in last year's Lightning, but ran to 125 when narrowly beaten by Home Affairs, before registering a career peak of 131 at Royal Ascot.

The lowest King's Stand Stakes winning figure since 2003 is 120 by The Tatling in 2004 and Goldream in 2015.

So, if Coolangatta strikes a King's Stand like those years she will be in the finish on repeat of her Lightning performance but would need to elevate a few pounds if she strikes a King's Stand run to its average rating of 125.45 from the past two decades.



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