Talking Points: Saturday - 15th April 2023

The inaugural running of The Quokka certainly lived up to the hype from a spectacle, but how did it rate, and what should Amelia’s Jewel do in the Spring?

AMELIA'S JEWEL winning the Drummond Golf - Northerly Stakes

It may seem a bit unfair to Overpass given he just led throughout in a high-pressure 1200m worth $4 million, fending off multiple Group 1 winners late only for all the talk to be about the runner-up, but racing is cruel like that. It's always about the next big thing, and Amelia's Jewel promises to be that.

Just quickly on Overpass, he's run a slight new peak of 119 with Timeform, bettering his ratings of 118 and 117 in last year's Galaxy and Shorts respectively. Early pace is just as, if not more important than late pace and he showed again how vital it is to be able to put yourself into the race.

He's unlikely to win a Group 1 in the Eastern States, although The Goodwood in a month's time would be a great target if they did head that way.

I said Amelia's Jewel would need to run a new peak to be winning The Quokka, and ironically, she has equalled her peak and fallen short by the barest of margins. If she had run a new peak, bettering her 114 in the Group 1 Northerly Stakes (1800m), she'd have won.

I think it's relatively clear that she's not a sprinter, or at least won't be as effective over sprinting trips as a grand final in the future. Of course, on Saturday, there was plenty of talk that the barrier cruelled her chances and if she was in her original gate she wins.

I don't necessarily buy into that- she would've been in the last four anyway and probably needing a bit of luck to come through them rather than around. No matter which route you take, if you go back, you're going to need things to go your way.

Regardless, now the dust has settled, it appears The Golden Eagle will be her main goal in the Spring, but the path she takes is up in the air. Speaking with trainer Simon A Miller post-race, a few options were thrown up, including The Everest, kicking off in Melbourne, and one Simon Dinopolous suggesting The Epsom Handicap.

There have been four Golden Eagle's run and won, and every single one of them had their lead up run in a Group 1 handicap mile. Kolding and Colette, stabled in Sydney, came through The Epsom, the former winning, and I'm Thunderstruck and I Wish I Win both came through the Toorak, the former winning.

An inevitably high pressure mile, back to an inevitably high pressure 1500m is a much better scenario than running in The Everest over 1200m just two weeks before stepping to the 1500m.

Besides that, Amelia's Jewel proved on Saturday, whilst very talented, that she'd struggle to measure up in The Everest. Overpass was okay running sixth in last year's edition but you don't have to back far to see the horses she'd be up against.

I Wish I Win and Giga Kick could both claim to be the best sprinter in the world at the moment, the former rated 127 with Timeform off his T J win, equal with Hong Kong star Lucky Sweynesse (albeit over 1400m).

Giga Kick has already won The Everest and actually bettered that figure in Saturday's Group 1 All Aged Stakes win (1400m). Off the strength off that win, and being a gelding where prize money is king, why wouldn't he look to run in both The Everest and Golden Eagle in the Spring?

Put simply, Amelia's Jewel would need to go to a whole new level to be competitive with Giga Kick and co, over 1200m. She may have upside but her and Giga Kick have both had exactly nine starts, so who's to say she has more upside than him?

Her best shot, in my opinion, to win the Golden Eagle, is to run in The Epsom three weeks before The Golden Eagle, hoping the likes of Giga Kick aren't as hardened by targeting The Everest first. If she were to race exclusively in Sydney, following Collette's path of Tramway-George Main-Epsom-Eagle would be suitable, otherwise the Memsie into the Makybe Diva in Melbourne are certainly possible.



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