Golden Mile- worst Guineas ever?
The big question mark on Golden Mile heading into Saturday's Caulfield Guineas was whether he'd run the mile, having faded late in the Golden Rose over 1400m. There was no question over his ability- he rated well clear heading in and effectively just needed to hold his rating of 115 and the others would need to improve sharply to catch him.
As it turns out, he's been able to regress by a pound and still win, returning the lowest winning rating of the Caulfield Guineas we've seen in history. By Timeform's measure, Golden Mile rated 114 on Saturday, which is a full three pounds below Mighty Boss in 2017, who ran 117 when knocking off Kementari at 100-1.
Mighty Boss of course, would never win another race, although it becomes hard to 'go through the grades' when your only two wins come in a maiden and a Group 1.
When you consider some of the better recent winner's of the Guineas- the likes of Anamoe (123), The Autumn Sun (126), All Too Hard (125+) and Weekend Hussler (126), Golden Mile has plenty to find.
Ironically, stablemate Aft Cabin, who I wrote about after his maiden win at Sandown, actually rated higher winning the Guineas Prelude than Golden Mile did winning the Guineas. Obviously we can't just drag and drop one rating into another race and say with assurance that it would've won, but I'm of the opinion Aft Cabin would've won on Saturday had he not bled in trackwork and be ruled out.
Of course, Godolphin and connections probably don't care about all this a whole lot. A winner at two and now a Guineas winner at three as a colt, by their very own Astern means Golden Mile's future is assured, but us punters don't care about that.
It'll be interesting to see how he comes back in the Autumn and what Godolphin do. The Randwick Guineas and Australian Guineas are both up for grabs and I'm suggesting that Golden Mile will need to improve a few more pounds to be winning either.
In the short term, things are just as interesting. I've no idea if Golden Mile has another run this preparation but I'd consider it unlikely. I can't see them freshening him for a Coolmore at 1200m, and he's got to be no hope of seeing out 2000m in a Spring Champion. He's done his job, got his Group 1, and is a very real chance to retire without another win to his name, a la Mighty Boss.
The beaten brigade however, are likely to press on. Runner up Elliptical was initially touted as paying up for the Cox Plate, but they've decided to stick to their own age and target the Spring Champion. A good idea in my book- he'd be hard pressed running top six in a Cox Plate.
Of the others, Osipenko and Berkeley Square were the eye catchers, the former charging home from an impossible position and the latter getting into traffic before flashing late.
Osipenko looks right on track for a Spring Champion tilt if they choose to head that way, with nothing in that market having really put their hand up to say they're the one to beat. Williamsburg has run 108 twice now and looks like he'll get 2000m no worries. If it's a bog track (which it probably will be), he comes right into play, whereas Osipenko struggled in the awful conditions behind Aft Cabin which is a little niggle.
Just as Jacquinot made great improvement from two to three, it wouldn't shock to see something (Kibou perhaps?) make similar strides in the Autumn, with the Golden Mile's of the world still having plenty to prove.