Queensland Derby aspirant stakes claim
Chris Waller looks to have an (admittedly very early) hold on the Group 1 Queensland Derby (2400m), not run until May next year, if the win of Kovalica on Saturday is anything to go by.
The Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes (2100m) hasn't been the greatest lead up to the three-year-old feature in recent years, mainly because the races are now further apart than they used to be, but it can be a good early guide and Kovalica looks well above average.
A son of Ocean Park, Kovalica has only been beaten once, over 1300m on debut and has since run a strong ratings progression. Before Saturday, his other three wins had an all-important + attached to his rating due to a key sectional mark up, indicating the potential he could rate higher in a more favourable scenario.
He justified that (and his $1.45 SP) on Saturday, coming from back in the field off a genuine tempo and run to 108 on Timeform's scale.
That comfortably betters last year's winner, Gypsy Goddess, who has turned out to be the best winner of the race in recent years, beating a modest field and running to 99. Her next start, she ran to 108 over a mile, a number she slightly bettered in her Oaks win. She would've very likely won the Derby had she been targeted at it.
The Elanora and Chains Of Honour (103), Fun Fact (104) Heavenly Thought and Order Again (109) are the other recent winners of the Grand Prix and of the two who rated higher than Kovalica, Heavenly Thought was beaten a head in the Derby and Order Again didn't contest it.
Waller especially has used the race (albeit before it was moved) to great effect. He's won it five times, and the best comparison is Hawkspur, who won the 2013 Grand Prix, Rough Habit and Derby within a month.
Another potential comparison is 2021 Derby winner Kukeracha, also trained by Waller (and in the same colours as Kovalica).
At the end of their spring three-year-old season, Kukeracha was rated just 97, eventually working towards a big peak some five months later of 113.
That 113 is around what it takes to win an average Queensland Derby in recent years.
Pinarello ran to 109 last year which is the equal lowest rating since 2014 when Sonntag gave Henry Dwyer his first Group 1 win.
Ruthven (116+) was the best, never recapturing his form in Hong Kong.
Looking back through recent winners of the race, it's not often you have one rated so highly before Christmas that didn't run in the better three-year-old races during the Spring.
Mr Quickie is one of those- rated a whopping 106 off just a Sandown Bm70 win in November before running to 114 in his Derby win.
Of course the key will be what Waller does with Kovalica- a plethora of three-year-old options to contest over the Autumn, but given his early preference (and demolition of Queensland), a return in May seems the likely path.
Off what he's done so far, he'd only have to improve 1 pound to equal last year's Derby winner, and only 1-2 lengths to be an up to scratch winner, and if he's dealt up similar opposition to Saturday, he'll win it doing cartwheels.