Just the three meetings around Japan on Thursday to whet the appetite before the Japan Cup this weekend. We've got racing at Nagoya, Sonoda and Urawa and have picked out our best bets across the day.
Nagoya Race 3 #3 Real Monster
Looks a race in two here and I'm siding with the fit horse Real Monster who should start second favourite here but looks a big chance of upsetting the likely top pick. This colt ran very well two back when finishing second before a slight regression in ratings last start despite running second again. If he can recapture his figure from two starts ago he'll prove tough to beat, with #7 J L Smile also having the same peak rating as Real Monster but does come here first up off a poor run last preparation. He did start $2 there so I expect there's a good chance he's favourite and I'd rather back Real Monster.
Sonoda Race 7 #2 Special X
Easily the race of the day in Japan with some very promising two-year-olds, none more so than Special X, a colt by Danon Legend who is coming off a second placing in the Kamakura Kinen at Kawasaki, a 25,500,000 yen race which rated very highly. The overall time there was very fast so his effort to lead and hang on for second was good and he looks primed here. The slight drop back to 1400m looks in his favour and he should prove very tough to catch. The danger is definitely #3 Omatsuri Otoko who brings a slightly better last start rating into the field having won a strong race at Chukyo last start. He's progressive and I'm expecting the winner to come from the two.
Urawa Race 4 #9 Pino Zen
Keen on Pino Zen here who looks the best of the day at Urawa. She gets in with 53kg here under the weight conditions of the race which has her rating on top in a field with a few out of form horses. She does have the ability to rate higher than her last start having won very well two starts back, a repeat of which will win this race. She went around at $4.90 last start but I am expecting she starts closer to $2.50 this time which looks fair given the quality of this race. #6 Mikki Sienne might be the main danger despite still being a maiden. Her form in the JRA is solid and this is obviously going to be easier. If she brings her best first up she'll be hard to beat.