Fairly keen to bet this week at Rosehill on what looks a card with plenty of angles across the four feature races. More on one of those in a bit but the best of the day, undoubtedly for me is Howgoodareyou in Race 5 with bet365 offering $2.40.
This four-year-old mare by So You Think has won three from four and has made continual ratings improvement with each outing, culminating in a fairly dominant 2.2 length win here over 1500m last start.
As usual she went straight to the front and just dictated terms, running to 95 with Timeform, and what makes this race (hopefully) so easy to analyse is that the second favourite, Marquess, also ran over 1500m on the same card.
Marquess also ran to 95 on the Timeform scale but Howgoodareyou gets in with 3.5kg less, and a quick look at the times of those races confirms who should be clear top pick.
Howgoodareyou ran an overall time of 1.29.04, the race home in 34.12 compared to Marquess in 1.30.01, nearly a second slower, and only home in 34.05, barely half a length faster despite running a second slower time.
They both lose their jockey from last start but Rachel King looks to control the tempo again here from barrier three, up to 1800m looks perfect, I think she's a genuine even money chance.
For the value play I'm going to be betting in the Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes (1300m) which is the ninth on the card.
The market doesn't seem to have a clue here. Kovalica was put up at a laughable $3.50 all-in and is now out to $6 which is still unders. Nugget I can understand being single figures- he had a great last campaign but 1300m I think is as short as he wants it and I don't think he'll be particularly close to the speed.
Argentia looks ready to win but I don't see any value at $6.50. If they go forward she's the one to beat, but the one who will definitely go forward and probably even lead is Tamerlane.
He flew under the radar a bit last time in, just beaten first up before winning well twice, running ratings of 107 and 109 which see him right in the finish with 54kg. He's a good fresh horse, both trainer and jockey are flying and I can see him getting a cheap time of it in the first two and giving a big sight at double figures.
bet365 SYDNEY SPECIALS
Bet of the day: Race 5 #9 Howgoodareyou @ $2.40 with bet365*
Each-way play: Race 9 #10 Tamerlane @ $11/3.40 with bet365*
*Odds are correct at 11:15am, 7/9/23