Not the easiest day with a few 'almost' bets in a few races where I could happily back any of three horses but the market as it is now doesn't really show an edge.
The one where I think we could see a slight edge is in Race 7 with the set up for Cepheus looking to suit. He was nearly eight weeks between runs last start at Eagle Farm and it told late under 60kg but he wasn't all that bad and it gives him a nice platform for this.
This isn't a strong Group 2 by any means and I think his four starts prior to last start, where he went 114-113-114-112 are good enough to win this. Nash takes the ride which is a huge positive and he looks to get a lovely trail just behind the leaders from barrier two.
He did beat the favourite Waterford in the Autumn equivalent of this race, the Ajax, when leading all the way, still running the fastest last 200m of that race. He meets Waterford again here who was good closing off in a slowly run race first up but he's going to back near last again in a race devoid of tempo.
Cepheus looks the safe way to go and he should right there in the finish at market leading bet365 ($4.80).
No each-way play as such this week with the other best bet coming up in Race 9 where I find it hard to get away from Chorlton Lane. He's one that will be in the second half of the field but there is at least genuine tempo on paper here.
He won well at this track and distance two back and ran a new peak again last start at Caulfield, flying home to just miss the handy Rheinberg. 110 with Timeform there has him clear on our weight adjusted ratings from Pereille, who is racing well but will be back in the field as well, coming through weaker form and perhaps a query at 1400m.
It'll be a bit nervy late, but I think Chorlton Lane gets over the top late.
bet365 SYDNEY SPECIALS
Race 7 #3 Cepheus @ $4.80 with bet365*
Race 9 #9 Chorlton Lane @ $2.80 with bet365*
*Odds correct at 11:30am, 21/9/23