Group One racing continues in Melbourne on Saturday with the William Reid bringing the Newmarket trifecta and the Oakleigh Plate quinella.
That all sounds very nice and competitive and it can certainly be so, but the race is headlined by last year's winner Imperatriz who ran to 124 to do so, remaining unbeaten until last start in the Newmarket.
On ratings, her Newmarket run was good. Very good really, and just as good as what she'd been doing prior, she just bumped into one with a strong pull at the weights who showed up on the day.
She now meets said horse, Cylinder, at weight-for-age, and comes out clearly on top in that scenario. Really, any of her runs in the past year should win this race. She's back to The Valley which I think she goes best at and considering the started $1.60 to beat Private Eye in the Lightning, $1.80 here is probably pretty good shopping.
That said, it's the easy way out and for the best bet we'll instead look to her Tangerine teammate in Campionessa.
She won the Peter Young last time, beating a pair of Melbourne Cup winners, and rather than step up to the Australian Cup, Te Akau have placed her very well, dropping back to a mile in the Sunline Stakes.
Three of Campionessa's last four runs have been at a level good enough to win this and she's got a length or two on most of the established mares in this field. Roll On High is the three-year-old with the profile to challenge, but she's going to give the Kiwi a headstart and will need a new peak.
Struggled to find a push for one at odds but the other horse I'm keenest to back on the card is Strawberry Rock in Race 3. This isn't a strong race and his past two starts have been very good.
I like backing horses at the top of the weights that already rate highest which is what he does, and if Melham can land him just a bit closer in the run, he should be too strong for them late.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet of the day: Race 5 #1 Campionnessa at $3.40
Also backing: Race 3 #1 Strawberry Rock at $3.60