It certainly takes some winning this French race. Whether our Melbourne Cup heroine (rated 127) could've won is unlikely given her recent form but off that peak figure in isolation she would've been a leading chance.

Coincidently, 127 is exactly what the German Torquator Tasso ran to win the race last year, and Sottsass the year prior, and Found in 2016. Only once in the last ten years (Solemia 124) has the winner rated below 127. It's a decent benchmark to assume again that the winner will need to run at least 125 this year to be a winning hope.

With that in mind, I'll run over a handful of the key chances and how they stack up here.

Torquator Tasso ($7.5)- Last year's winner shock winner who I'm happy to take on here. Went around at ~70-1 last year and seemed most favoured by the heavy conditions. His form leading into last year was actually better, coming off a German G1 win and G1 second to Alpinista. He's ventured out of German waters to tes himself once since last year, no match for Pyledriver in the King George with some 8 lengths back to Mishriff in third. Rated 122 there, basically identical to what he was rated going into last year, however he'll go around 1/10th the price this time.

Alpinista ($5.5)- A key chance. The mare has won her past seven, her last five at Group 1 level and her last three in different countries. Arguably her best win was this time last year, towelling up Torquator Tasso to the tune of 2-¾ lengths at Hoppegarten and she's maintained her form this time in with a comfortable win at York last time out. I've got her just below one or two but she's the clichéd 'box ticker'. You know the level she'll run, she can settle in a good spot from the draw and she should be fighting out the finish.

Vadeni ($9)- The French Derby (Prix Du Jockey Club) winner turned heads with a 5 length demolition of Europe's sole Cox Plate hope El Bodegon and Modern Games in very fast time. The latter has certainly franked the form with back-to-back 125's over a mile and Vadeni hasn't done much wrong since either. He marginally improved his own 125 rating in the Derby win, toppling a small but select field in the Coral Eclipse which included the unlucky Mishriff, whom he now meets 1.5kg worse at the weights. Unfortunately for Mishriff, his peaks are few and far between, having struggled in three runs since. Vadeni beat him home again in the Irish Champion Stakes and was off 2 months there when third to Luxembourg. Forced to duck back to the inside, fitness likely told there with the Irish Champion perhaps not given as much respect as it deserved. It wouldn't shock me to see him turn the tables with that nice little 'prep run' under the belt, with this the absolute grand final.

Luxembourg ($4.5F)- One time Derby favourite, Luxembourg, despite already being a G1 winner over a mile, delivered on his promise with a big new peak at Leopardstown, running 124 with Timeform. Never tested over a mile-and-a-half due to the Derby miss, it's not unreasonable to suggest the son of Camelot will be even better in a further test of stamina which we will surely see on Sunday. He'll likely need to improve a couple of lengths to win if others run to their peaks, but that's very possible. The Irish Champion has been a strong recent guide to the Arc and on face value, that makes Luxembourg perhaps the horse to beat, however I'm suggesting Vadeni has the peak that Luxembourg still needs to rise to. There's virtually nothing between them but a few points in the market. Onesto was the one splitting the two in the Irish Champion, another putting up a strong peak there. He did have every chance and was well held by Vadeni at Chantilly so I'm prepared to risk him as a single figure chance in the market.

Titleholder ($11)- Is this Japan's year? The land of the rising sun haven't had a chance (at least by the market's standards) since… last year. Chrono Genesis went off at 9-1, finishing midfield in the testing conditions Japanese racehorses so rarely encounter. She was rated 124 off a Takarazuka Kinen win at Hanshin, interestingly having split Mishriff and Loves Only You in Meydan the start prior. Prior to that, even the mighty Orfevre (128 prior, 129 after) fell agonisingly short to 2x Arc winner Treve at Longchamp. Titleholder comes in also rated 128, having really hit his straps at four. In three starts since a fifth to Efforia (with Chrono Genesis in third) in the Arima Kinen, he's gone 122-127-128, having won the Tenno Sho over 2 miles and the Takarazuka Kinen over 2200m. He's got the speed to lead, and at brutal tempos which other horses simply can't match. If this were run in Japan, he'd be favourite. No question about it. Unfortunately for Japan, France's (and the world's) greatest race isn't run in their backyard. Concerns about the ground are often thrown up as an excuse, and with Longchamp set to be 'very soft', the weather may be one of, if not his biggest threat. It's a complete unknown, but you're getting a price to find out. Keen to be with him at double figures.

2022 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Tips:

Top tip: #11 Titleholder @ $11
Also backing: #15 Vadeni @ $9