Race favourite I'm Thunderstruck started at a bigger price than key rivals, Western Empire, Alligator Blood and Cascasdian in the Memsie but beat them all home and did so impressively enough to be the market leader two weeks on. 

Immediately, 9-1 to 6-4 might seem an overreaction. But deeper inspection goes some way to justifying the lofty market position of Timeform's top rated horse in the race.

The 124-rated I'm Thunderstruck ran race-best closing splits behind a well-ridden winner over the Caulfield 1400m in the Memsie and is far better suited by the mile at Flemington.  

Thunderstruck went to the mile off a 1400m run at Caulfield in both his spring and autumn campaigns last season and improved his rating 5lbs and 8lbs on doing so. There is a little hint that the peak is incoming and if that is the case then $2.50 is for the taking with the others stretched to match that level. 

Western Empire has a peak Timeform rating of 121, earned when winning the Railway in his native Perth last season, and while he was a way short of that number in the Memsie he went there 266 days between runs – a much longer layoff than the other key players in the contest. 

SNAPDANCER!

A sizzling performance to take out the Memsie Stakes.@Brown_Ethan8 @cmaherracing pic.twitter.com/UU04BbfJ9k

— 7HorseRacing (@7horseracing) August 27, 2022

There he travelled well before a rusty-looking finale. Solid but in need of the tune up which he now has. 

Flemington mile, second up, looks a perfect recipe for the best prospect to head across from Perth since Arcadia Queen – at least in the view of Timeform. 

Cascadian split that pair in the Memsie. In customary fashion he was slow to get moving, put himself into a terrible spot, and made good late ground to finish third without threatening. 

Cascadian's pattern means he needs things to fall in his lap somewhat, but his talent (rated 122 by Timeform) means he is always a threat in races such as this.

His Flemington mile record further evidence of that - three Cantala placings and a strong fifth from a hopeless spot in the All-Star Mile. 

There are no wins among those runs but he is a Doncaster winner at a mile and last campaign added the Peter Young and All Aged at either side of a mile to confirm that when things go his way he is a force to be feared. 

There are two more in the field rated above 120 by Timeform. Alligator Blood, the Stradbroke winner who also comes through the Memsie where he was below his best but without a lot of room, and Mo'unga who is the one from elsewhere having contested the Winx Stakes in Sydney first up. 

Like Alligator Blood, Mo'unga was short of room on his return but he failed to beat a runner home in the end and ultimately has to be considered disappointing. 

He used the Winx as a springboard to running second in the Makybe Diva last year, repelled by the high-class Incentivise, but on that occasion he had won the Winx and done so in good style. 

Another listless run behind Cascadian in the All Aged prior to a break leaves Mo'unga with a bit to prove now and it is hard to forecast a return to his 121-rated best with any great confidence. 

Surely a performance at least that good will be required to win this year with Thunderstruck in particular looking in great shape heading into a well up-to-standard edition of the race.