Aft Cabin

He's been my Caulfield Guineas elect since his maiden win at Sandown which rated 103+ with more to come. He justified that rating in the McNeil when unsuited dropping back in trip and used it to elevate again here, winning by 3.5 lengths and posting a new peak figure of 112 with Timeform.

I said last week that In Secret (113) posted the best figure of her crop as a three-year-old, with Golden Mile (111) on her heels. Aft Cabin has split his Sydney stablemates and posted a rating that nestles in well against recent winners of the race. Here's how they rated, where they finished in the Caulfield Guineas, and what rating they managed in the Group 1.

Horse	Rating	Finish	New Rating	Difference
Lightsaber	110	4th	115	+5
Crosshaven	112	4th	110	-2
Alligator Blood	113	2nd	117	+4
Native Soldier	115	12th	88	-27
Perast	115	5th	107	-8

Interestingly, the last horse to win the Prelude/Guineas double was Helmet in 2011, one of the best Guineas winners we've ever seen.

Recently, the Golden Rose has been the favoured lead up. Ole Kirk did the double in 2020 and Divine Prophet ran 4th (to Aft Cabin's sire, Astern) in the Golden Rose before winning the Stan Fox and Caulfield Guineas in 2016. Press Statement was in a similar mould the year prior, running 5th in the Golden Rose before winning the Stan Fox and Caulfield Guineas, as was Shooting To Win  (3rd in Rose, 1st in Stan Fox and Guineas) in 2014.

I can't forecast anything turning the tables on Aft Cabin from Saturday, and realistically nothing running in the Stutt Stakes has put up any recent numbers (Let'Srollthedice  ran 108 in the Sires behind Fireburn but hasn't come back well) that have a shot at beating Aft Cabin, so the Golden Rose again looks the only threat.

The only three (male) horses with ratings to challenge Aft Cabin are Daumier (113) who was awful first up, Jacquinot (112) and Golden Mile (111).

I touched on the Godolphin situation last week:

"Golden Mile also has options, and it may rely on other horse's performances as to which way Godolphin lead. Aft Cabin runs this Saturday in the Guineas Prelude and if he were to win, they might keep the pair in their respective states and put Golden Mile on a Stan Fox>Spring Champion path, the former of which he'd be nearly a complete lock in."

If I were Godolphin, my path would be simple. Aft Cabin is the Guineas horse, knowing he should have everything in Melbourne covered, and In Secret and Golden Mile run this Saturday in the Golden Rose, likely as 1-2 picks in the market.

After that, either push to a Thousand Guineas with In Secret or freshen up for a Coolmore along with Daumier. Golden Mile could be kept to 1400/1600m for the Stan Fox, or step to 1800m in the Gloaming two weeks after the Golden Rose, then two weeks to the Spring Champion, where he's already an all-in favourite. Easy!

Boogie Dancer

This filly profiles remarkably similarly to Aft Cabin, but with a bigger spike in ratings here. She ran ratings of 96 and 94 as a late season two-year-old, holding that 94 rating when dropping back to 1200m in the Atlantic Jewel, before elevating sharply on Saturday.

Her 3.3 length win earned a rating of 109, with the market eventually settling her as third pick in the Thousand Guineas. Same as the boys, here's how she compares against recent winners, and how they went in the Group 1.

Horse	Rating	Finish	New Rating	Difference
Bon's A Pearla	103	10th	92	-11
Instant Celebrity	107	3rd	108	0
Acting	108	5th	105	-3
Smart Melody	115	7th	106	-9
Booker	107	6th	89	-18

Not great viewing, however, the timing of the Thousand Guineas differs to the Caulfield Guineas in a couple of ways. Firstly, the Flight Stakes is a direct comparison in Sydney run 10 days before, with the Guineas on the Wednesday.

Global Glamour was one of the better three-year-old fillies we've had recently and did the Flight/Guineas double in 2016 on the seven day backup, but it's not easy and many won't try.

I'd say the only Melbourne based filly that could turn the tables on Boogie Dancer is She's Licketysplit, who is rated 103 in New Zealand and had a tough run with the full weight penalty on Saturday, running 102.

Other than that, Zougotcha is headed to the Flight and unlikely to run in Melbourne, Wolverine is in a similar boat and if anything would be more of an Oaks candidate, leaving In Secret as the big question mark.

Running in the Golden Rose has all but ruled her out of backing up in the Flight, it just depends whether they want to stretch her to a mile, or drop back to 1200m in the Coolmore. With that unknown, it's impossible to take ~$4.50, but much more appealing to take $8 about Boogie Dancer. She's the Melbourne filly to beat in the Thousand Guineas, and might not have to beat anything else.