Moir to Manikato?

Coolangatta became just the second filly to win the Group 1 Moir Stakes (1000m) in 17 years at Moonee Valley on Friday night, able to lead all of the way and record a narrow victory, earning her a Timeform rating of 116- a clear new peak.

Her second best rating (109) was actually on debut, having been very consistent in between just below that level, including running 107 first up when third in the McEwen Stakes.

For the most part, the Moir was run in two parts. Those settling near the speed finished near the front, and those settling out the back finished out the back. Able to lead on the rail this time, Coolangatta made the most of her 50kg and a red-hot Jamie Kah to fend them off.

Her 116 is on the lower end of recent Moir winners, which in turn pale in comparison to Buffering who ran 121 in 2015 and 124 in 2014.

Horse	Moir Rating	Next Start
Wild Ruler	119	12th- Everest
Pippie	115	7th- Manikato
Nature Strip	118	4th- Everest
Viddora	118	10th- Everest
She Will Reign	119	11th- Everest
Extreme Choice	124+	5th- Coolmore

Interestingly, of the horses in the graph above, each one except Nature Strip regressed significantly, and I'm of the opinion Coolangatta will as well.

Clearly suited on the night, she was out on her feet late, running the eighth fastest last 200m of the race. Obviously leaders typically aren't going to be strongest through the line, but I can't see how some of these horses don't turn the tables in the Manikato, if she heads that way.

116 wouldn't win a Manikato in most years. Recently, there have been just two winners who managed to win running 116- Jonker and Loving Gaby. Pre-Everest, the race took a lot of winning, with the likes of Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee and Hay List all winning in the last 12 years.

Three-year-olds in general have a patchy win record in the Manikato compared to the Moir. Loving Gaby got away with one where Bivouac was a most awful victim of the Moonee Valley coffin and prior to that, top class colts Sepoy and Redoute's Choice were the only two winners.

The market for the Manikato with TAB currently reads:

Bella Nipotina $5

Coolangatta $8

Generation $8

Paulele $8

Rothfire $8

Five of the first six across the line in the Moir, with third-placed Zoustyle at $15. I doubt any of the Everest contenders will bother coming down a week before, so the Manikato might be a carbon copy of the Moir, maybe with another three-year-old chucked in.

I'm saying 120 should win the Manikato this year, and only a few runners in the market are capable of running that.

Paulele and Rothfire easily look the two most likely to turn the tables. Rothfire perhaps wasn't suited staying at 1000m after running 120 first up. He found the line well in restricted room on Friday night and I'd be shocked if he doesn't beat Coolangatta home in the Manikato.

Paulele ran 121 when just missing Mazu in the Doomben 10,000 and was outsped over 1000m. He's a big improver in the Manikato and I'd be surprised if he isn't fighting out the finish.

Bella Nipotina ran her usual honest race but doesn't have the peaks in her that Paulele and Rothfire do. She also has a less favourable racing pattern so looks too short as all-in favourite.

The only other major contender is In The Congo. With ratings of 120 and 121 in the Golden Rose and Galaxy respectively, he's good enough to win, but would need to improve sharply off his disappointing McEwen run.

To summarise, here are my much-awaited Manikato Stakes 2022 Power Rankings:

1. Paulele
2. Rothfire
3. Bella Nipotina
4. In The Congo
5. Coolangatta