Empire Rose picture unfurling

A few likely Empire Rose candidates stepped out on Saturday with the Rose Of Kingston Stakes over 1400m at Flemington, as well as the Epsom at Randwick.

Excelida won the race and returned a Timeform rating of 108, however the second placed Argentia rated a touch higher at 110 due to the weight conditions of the race.

Argentia is the one I want to focus on given she was first up and rated highest in the race, with her 110 stacking up well against recent winners of the race.

Only Invincibella (112) has rated higher in recent years and traditionally, it isn't much of a jump to win the Empire Rose.

Shout The Bar won as a three-year-old filly rating 111, as did I Am A Star (also as a 3yo) in 2016. Melody Belle is the best recent winner of the race, rating 118 at her Australian debut in 2019.

Argentia and Excelida both returned a new peak rating on Saturday but it is Argentia that I think sets up ideally for the Empire Rose. She was only first up on Saturday and did go 108-106-106 last time in before being put into the dreaded Artorius path of trying to making a miler (and beyond) into a sprinter.

It seems now the Freedman camp are setting a mare by Frankel out of a NZ Oaks winner in Princess Coup to not run over 1200m. Seems like a good plan to me. Third up at a mile, history says she won't have to improve more than five pounds to be a likely candidate, and she's only had seven starts, four of them at 1200m or below. I quite like her chances come Derby Day (cue segue into next talking point).
 

Super Impose the right Derby form?

Also on Derby Day is the VRC Derby! Traditionally the Super Impose has been a key pointer to the VRC Derby, with three of the last four Melbourne trained horses having run in the race. Johnny Get Angry, Warning and Extra Brut all ran well, with the latter two winning this race, then getting beaten in the Caulfield Classic before bouncing back to win the Derby.

Mr Maestro won the Derby Trial on heavy ground rating 100 with Timeform and has matched that rating on Saturday on a firm deck with a soft win which has sent him to the top of the Victoria Derby betting.

Recent winners of the Super Impose (formerly UCI Stakes) have certainly rated higher than Mr Maestro who was visually impressive but with the data suggesting he may have been a bit flattered.

El Patroness 95

Khoekhoe 103

Warning 105

Extra Brut 109+

Main Stage 108

Of course, history is only a small guide and Mr Maestro doesn't have to beat any of these horses- only what's in front of him on the day, however the Derby takes more winning than 100. Even Johnny Get Angry, easily the worst winner of the race in recent years, and likely ever, rated 112. The eight year mean is 116.5, and Mr Maestro has now run 97, 100, 100 in his last three. The more a horse runs a rating, the more likely he is just that good and no better. Maybe he can make the jump with more ground and against better horses, but 7/2 for the Derby is horrendous betting.