Winterbottom picture muddied

There hasn't really been a dominant sprinter in Perth in twenty years and even then, to call the 02/03 Winterbottom winner Hardrada a dominant horse is a stretch. He was a solid horse but in a time where fewer Eastern horses travelled over and the Winterbottom was still a Group 2, he was rated to a peak of 116 with Timeform.

For that reason, the easy comparison to Hardrada today is Elite Street, who has been the benchmark in the sprinting ranks out West for the last couple of years, winning the 2020 Winterbottom with a peak of 117.

Since then, he's run in Perth nine times and run between 114-116 on five of those occasions and seemingly the Winterbottom this year revolves around that benchmark- if you run over 116, you're a good chance of winning, and the recent history backs that up.
 

As seen in this snapshot of recent winners, the median winning number works out to be 117.83 and in a year where we know the level of the locals, I'd be confident that rating wins this year's edition.

This'Ll Testya took out the Group 3 Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m) on Saturday, a key lead up to the Winterbottom in two weeks' time and likely the last run for most horses, with only the Listed Jungle Mist Classic for F&M and a 1000m 72+ handicap available this Saturday.

The seven-year-old is going better than ever, posting a new peak of 109 in the Colonel Reeves on Saturday, with Red Can Man heading the race at 113 under the weight conditions.

The form of the Colonel Reeves runs true enough due to Red Can Man, who has run his usual race- he's equalled his peak of 113, a mark he's run to thrice in his last six starts.

The favoured runners, Elite Street and Miss Conteki, got back in the field and never really threatened, both working home well from too far back.

Miss Conteki is a flashy horse who will always have her supporters, but she's now had 17 starts and is at an established level. It's a very good level and she's won 11 races, her peak figure actually coming two starts ago when running down This'll Testya over 1000m, running to 110+.

That + often signifies that the horse can go better due to running big late sectionals, but when you're getting back to last in nearly every race, justifying that + is going to be tricky.

That covers pretty much all of the local hopes in the market and so far, only Elite Street has a figure to his name that would win a Winterbottom. It's a touch worrying that he's run well below his best first up, given his last two first up runs have been his usual 116 and 115.

Is there the potential Dan Morton has deliberately left a bit in the tank and is targeting the new 1400m Gold Rush, worth the same as the Winterbottom at $1.5 million?

That leaves us with the raiders, and we've got a few likely to head over.

To my knowledge, Rothfire, Paulele, Kementari, The Astrologist and Beau Rossa are all heading over, with all five having a peak rating capable of winning.

Beau Rossa has run to 118 once when an unlucky second to Behemoth in the 2021 Memsie and did return well, running 114 at Flemington. If you wipe his last campaign he's not hoepeless at $34.

The Astrologist has a peak of 117, but if you look away from his favoured Flemington, his rating drops to 112. He's racing well and is honest as the Perth day is long, but I wouldn't want to be backing him to win.

Kementari actually does make some appeal. Special K's last four ratings read: 115, 113, 120, 117. The lowest of the quarter was in The Everest, and he stuck on well behind Private Eye in the Nature Strip Stakes last start.

We know he can be hit and miss but at $18 I'd be keeping him very safe.

Paulele has the highest recent rating in the field, having run to 121 despite copping a whip to the face when winning the Schillaci. He also ran to 121 last preparation when second to Mazu in the Doomben 10,000.

If he runs to that level he'll very likely win, but his last two runs have been poor, albeit with excuses. The Manikato failure was on a very testing track before a bunched finish behind Roch 'N' Horse in the Champions Sprint, running 11th but beaten 2.5 lengths in his first run down the straight.

Rothfire also has a recent rating of 120, winning the McEwen first up over 1000m. He basically crossed the line with Paulele in the Moir and beat him home in the Manikato and Champions Sprint, running to 116 in the latter.

Rothfire is the $4 favourite for the Winterbottom with Paulele at $8 which looks too big of a gap given their recent SP's:

Of course it all depends on who has freshened up and travelled best at the end of long preparations, but at the current prices, the blue jackets of Paulele and Kementari (with Beau Rossa a smoky) make the most appeal.

FP	Silk	Horse, Age & Sex Sire & Dam	Jockey Trainer	SP WT
1st		13. THIS'LL TESTYA (AUS) 7yo M TESTA ROSSA (AUS) - CAMILLE'S GIRL (AUS)	LUCY F WARWICK MITCHELL PATEMAN	$7.5 54.5kg
		G J Hunter, M J Nelson, N P Ryde, W H Lavender, R J Logie, S D Bayley, T J Lavender, P J O'rourke, B K Stubber, Miss K A E Smith, A Want, J R Want, S A Parr, R L Hortin, Z Hortin, G P Manley, A Ryde, G C Weinert & Go Charlie (Mgr: L J Dwyer)
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2017 Perth Yearling Sale (192) | Dawson Stud Myalup Wa (As Agent) | Mark Nelson | AUD $ 52,000 2017 Perth Yearling Sale (192)   Dawson Stud Myalup Wa (As Agent)  Mark Nelson AUD $ 52,000
2nd		3. RED CAN MAN (AUS) 6yo G GINGERBREAD MAN (AUS) - BROCKY'S ACE (AUS)	SHAUN MCGRUDDY STEPHEN WOLFE	$7.5 57.5kg
		S J Wolfe, P D Braimbridge, L A Benson, N W Carter, B W Wolfe, T Alvin, D Mcauliffe, T C Guelfi, K G Battison, N A Walton, K R Watson, C J Spiniello & N P Ryde
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (34) | Western Breeders Alliance (Darling View Stud Einoncliff Park And Westbury Park) Wa | Commercial Bloodstock Services P/L (Fbaa) | AUD $ 50,000 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (34)   Western Breeders Alliance (Darling View Stud Einoncliff Park And Westbury Park) Wa  Commercial Bloodstock Services P/L (Fbaa) AUD $ 50,000
3rd		4. INDIAN PACIFIC (AUS) 6yo G ZOUSTAR (AUS) - ROSARINO (AUS)	BRAD PARNHAM NEVILLE PARNHAM	$20 57.5kg
		N D Parnham, Mrs C A Parnham, R C Pearson, Bagden Pty Ltd Syndicate (Mgr: W D Biggs), Ridgeport Syndicate (Mgr: S E Guagliardo) & G W Webster (Snr)
	Sales Information  | Inglis | 2018 Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale (46) | Bowness Stud, Young, Nsw | Parnhams Racing Stable | AUD $ 110,000 2018 Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale (46)   Bowness Stud, Young, Nsw  Parnhams Racing Stable AUD $ 110,000
4th		1. ELITE STREET (AUS) 6yo G STREET BOSS (USA) - ELITE ATEATES (AUS)	BRAD RAWILLER D MORTON	$3 59.5kg
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (58) | Anita Vale Stud Mardella Wa | WITHDRAWN 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (58)   Anita Vale Stud Mardella Wa  Withdrawn
5th		10. MISS CONTEKI (AUS) 6yo M EUROZONE (AUS) - TIPSY MOMENT (AUS)	PATRICK CARBERY SIMON A MILLER	$4 55.5kg
	Sales Information  | Inglis | 2017 Australian Broodmare and Weanling Sale (111) | Coolmore Stud, Jerry's Plains | Amelia Park Racing & Breeding | AUD $ 55,000 2017 Australian Broodmare and Weanling Sale (111)   Coolmore Stud, Jerry's Plains  Amelia Park Racing & Breeding AUD $ 55,000
6th		7. NERODIO (AUS) 7yo G PLAYING GOD (AUS) - BLACK CARAT (AUS)	LAQDAR RAMOLY STEPHANIE BAKRANICH	$41 57.5kg
7th		8. COMES A TIME (AUS) 6yo G SESSIONS (AUS) - LET'S GO (AUS)	PAUL HARVEY MICHAEL GRANTHAM	$31 57.5kg
8th		14. WILCHINO (AUS) 6yo M MASCHINO (AUS) - WILD PARK (AUS)	CHRIS PARNHAM D MORTON	$9 54.5kg
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (165) | Alwyn Park Stud Serpentine Wa | Morton Racing Pty Ltd | AUD $ 55,000 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (165)   Alwyn Park Stud Serpentine Wa  Morton Racing Pty Ltd AUD $ 55,000
9th		11. AMASENUS (AUS) 6yo M TIME FOR WAR (AUS) - KELENDRIA (AUS)	STEVEN PARNHAM SIMON A MILLER	$31 55.5kg
	Sales Information  | Inglis | 2017 Australian Broodmare and Weanling Sale (125) | Taghadoe Stud, Scone | Aquanita Racing | AUD $ 14,000 2017 Australian Broodmare and Weanling Sale (125)   Taghadoe Stud, Scone  Aquanita Racing AUD $ 14,000
10th		2. LAVERROD (AUS) 6yo G TORONADO (IRE) - DEMASHEEN (AUS)	WILLIAM PIKE S & J CASEY	$21 58.5kg
	Sales Information  | Inglis | 2018 Australian Easter Yearling Sale (93) | Coolmore Stud, Jerrys Plains | Yenrise Pty Ltd | AUD $ 270,000 2018 Australian Easter Yearling Sale (93)   Coolmore Stud, Jerrys Plains  Yenrise Pty Ltd AUD $ 270,000  | Magic Millions | 2017 Gold Coast National Weanling Sale (288) | Lauriston Thoroughbred Farm Corinella Vic (As Agent) | James Bester Bloodstock | AUD $ 140,000 2017 Gold Coast National Weanling Sale (288)   Lauriston Thoroughbred Farm Corinella Vic (As Agent)  James Bester Bloodstock AUD $ 140,000
11th		12. JERICHO MISSILE (AUS) 6yo G SMART MISSILE (AUS) - ONECATSTOOMANY (AUS)	JORDAN TURNER D R HARRISON	$201 55kg
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2018 Adelaide Yearling Sale (139) | Maluka Thoroughbreds Kilmore Vic (As Agent For Milawa Park) | Bridge Patrol Lodge Pty Ltd | AUD $ 77,500 2018 Adelaide Yearling Sale (139)   Maluka Thoroughbreds Kilmore Vic (As Agent For Milawa Park)  Bridge Patrol Lodge Pty Ltd AUD $ 77,500  | Magic Millions | 2017 Gold Coast National Weanling Sale (502) | Holbrook Thoroughbreds Scone Nsw (As Agent) | Zamac Pty Ltd | AUD $ 32,000 2017 Gold Coast National Weanling Sale (502)   Holbrook Thoroughbreds Scone Nsw (As Agent)  Zamac Pty Ltd AUD $ 32,000
12th		5. MONEY MATTERS (AUS) 6yo G CANFORD CLIFFS (IRE) - MIZ NICHOLLS (AUS)	SHAUN O'DONNELL C & M GANGEMI	$101 57.5kg
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2018 Adelaide Yearling Sale (122) | Redbank North/Huntworth Stud Harden Nsw (As Agent) | Durrant Racing | AUD $ 37,500 2018 Adelaide Yearling Sale (122)   Redbank North/Huntworth Stud Harden Nsw (As Agent)  Durrant Racing AUD $ 37,500
13th		15. EXPRESS TIME (AUS) 6yo M WAR CHANT (USA) - EVEN ASTAR (AUS)	KESHAW DHURUN NEVILLE PARNHAM	$31 53kg
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (62) | Yarradale Stud Gidgegannup Wa | Parnham's Racing Stable | AUD $ 110,000 2018 Perth Yearling Sale (62)   Yarradale Stud Gidgegannup Wa  Parnham's Racing Stable AUD $ 110,000
14th		6. OUTRAGEOUS (AUS) 7yo G ALL TOO HARD (AUS) - FIT AND READY (AUS)	J AZZOPARDI LUKE FERNIE	$201 57.5kg
	Sales Information  | Magic Millions | 2017 Gold Coast Yearling Sale (17) | Vinery Stud Scone Nsw (As Agent) | Hawkes Racing | AUD $ 460,000 2017 Gold Coast Yearling Sale (17)   Vinery Stud Scone Nsw (As Agent)  Hawkes Racing AUD $ 460,000
15th		9. PANDEMIC (AUS) 6yo G SEPOY (AUS) - CATACLYSM (AUS)	PETER KNUCKEY C & M GANGEMI	$101 57.5kg