Winterbottom Winner

There are many factors that go into winning a race, but in a wide-open Winterbottom, it paid to come back to the highest rated horse (at least in the last two years).

That horse was Paulele, who had run to a mark of 121 on Timeform's scale twice this year. He did so when winning the Schillaci at Caulfield just three starts prior to Saturday, as well as in the Doomben 10,000 when second to Mazu in May.

Despite this, the market largely abandoned him, showing more than a hint of recency bias and drifting him out to $13, even after the scratching of stablemate and equal favourite Vilana.

A genuine tempo and firm ground, and perhaps a bend, all contributed to Paulele equalling his peak of 121 in the Winterbottom, producing a withering final 400m to grab Kissonallforcheeks in the shadows of the post.

As touched on in a previous edition, the previous six-year median of the Winterbottom was 117.83, only Hey Doc (122) bettering Paulele in that time. In fact, Paulele will go down as one of the better winners of the race.

Since the turn of the century, there have been just three other winners crack the 120 mark:

2013: Buffering - 122

2012: Barakey - 121p

2008: Takeover Target - 126

Takeover Target is the best winner of the race in recorded history, his stirring clash with Apache Cat surely the spark that saw the race elevated to Group 1 status in 2010.

Beaten Brigade

Buffering won the race twice, his 2015 win rating 119 but Robert Heathcote couldn't get his current stable star to repeat the dose as Rothfire finished fifth, beaten 1.6 lengths.

I actually thought his run was good, however. He sat sixth in run, was fifth on the turn and was right there until the 100m when just peaking late.

The four that finished above him were all back in the field- Paulele sat 16/16 in run, Kissonallforcheeks 14/16, This'Ll Testya 15/16 and Hot Zed 9/16.

The horses that sat ahead of Rothfire in the run- Indian Pacific, Massimo, Red Can Man, Sniparoochy and The Astrologist finished 16th, 14th, 12th, 15th and 8th so his effort to stick on was solid.

Unfortunately, due to news coming through as I write, Rothfire won't be running in the Gold Rush over 1400m, where I would've been keen to be with him.

Kissonallforcheeks also looks a likely Gold Rush candidate. Her pet trip is 1400m with her previous peak figure of 115 coming at the trip in the Shaftesbury Avenue at Flemington earlier this year.

She's bettered that mark slightly on Saturday, running to 116 (120 under WFA) which would very likely win such a race. The thing in her favour is she's settled back in the field over 1200m on Saturday but has the ability to settle forward over 1400m as she has done in the past.

With no Rothfire, likely no Paulele, and Vilana still having to be some query, $7 about Kissonallforcheeks makes the most appeal in the Gold Rush.