QEII blockbuster

The comparison between Dubai Honour and Addeybb is an easy one to make. Lazy, sure, but easy and convenient. Both trained by W J Haggas and both sent to Australia to contest the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes (2000m), both would make instant impressions at their first run on our soil.

Trainer aside, the comparisons in their form are also easy to link. Addeybb was rated 124 by Timeform prior to coming here, second to Magical in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot earning that number.

Dubai Honour was rated 123 by Timeform at his top, also having run second in a Champion Stakes at Ascot, beaten by Sealiway, although had been a few lengths below his best at four.

Both improved on their peak at their first run here, Addeybb getting the better of our flagship middle distance horse in Verry Elleegant and running to 125.

Dubai Honour also ran a new peak on Saturday, setting up a mouth-watering clash with our flagship middle distance horse in Anamoe and running to 125+.

A slow tempo up front allowed Dubai Honour to rip home in 33.31 for his last 600m, which was the seventh fastest of the entire day, and his last 200m of 11.22 was the fourth fastest of the day behind Fangirl.

Anamoe on the other hand, rated a fair way down on his best, running to 120 in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m). That doesn't consider the run he endured, three wide without any real cover for most of the race. His peak is 126, which he's run twice- the start prior in the Group 1 George Main (1600m) and in his Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) win.

Interestingly, this was the first time Anamoe has gone back in distance in a preparation and given his performance over a mile prior, and the run he had on Saturday, I'd say he's every chance of at least running back to his peak of 126 in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m). 

That leaves very little between he and Dubai Honour. At their peaks, and taking into account Dubai Honour's potential sectional mark up on Saturday, there'd be less than a length between them, provided they do run to their best.

There was some pre-race chatter that Dubai Honour was a better wet-tracker, and would only improve again if the rain came. I don't agree with that entirely- although his best ratings have come on rain affected ground, he's still run to 119 at York on good-firm going, which is his third best career rating so there isn't enough evidence to say either way. Both he and Anamoe are fine on anything in the good-soft range.

If you go solely off their last start ratings (even taking Anamoe's tough run into account), Dubai Honour is clearly the horse to beat. No doubt about that. But Anamoe has consistency and a bulk of ratings behind him.

His median rating in the past year is 123.5 and he's run 125 or above on five occasions, or 50% of the time. While the last start rating is the best single indicator of the next rating, it's not the only indicator. Dubai Honour is perhaps less likely to run to his peak next time out than Anamoe but has the recency factor.

After all that, I effectively can't separate them, and doing so would be giving more weight to a certain factor. Betting on the race will all come down to price, but I'd love to see Anamoe rise to the occasion and avenge Verry Elleegant's losses to Addeybb in the 2020 & 2021 Queen Elizabeth.

Slipper- Shinzo solid, not spectacular

As you'd expect, Shinzo has run to a significant new peak to win Saturday's Group 1 Golden Slipper (1200m), giving Chris Waller his first win in the two-year-old feature.

His rating of 120, up from 112, is average- in the actual sense of the word. In the past 12 years, the mean rating of the Golden Slipper is 120.67, and he fits right in there, although he is below every male to have won the race in that time, with no male running below 122 to win the race.

His sectional strength is the highlight. Settling midfield, he's run the race-fastest last 1000/800/600/400/200m, compared to a horse like Stay Inside- while they both got great runs, there were signs that others behind him may have more talent. That has obviously turned out true with Anamoe and Artorius coming home fastest on that occasion.

Showing again why the last start rating isn't the be all and end all, with Steel City having been measurably better on the same day the week prior, Shinzo, unlike some recent winners (Stay Inside and Farnan), should be fine at 1400m in the Sires. He'll likely be a deserving favourite there although a horse like Cafe Millenium getting to 1400m would interest me to beat him if Shinzo is over-bet.