Track Good 4 and rail True:
| Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1000m): |
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We start the Showcase Bega Cup day card with a small field of maiden sprinters, and the rail position unchanged from Saturday. Keen to be aboard Canberra-based Bull Point three-year-old 1. Too Sharp who debuts as a gelding off a smart trial win. Draws the fence, and the stable loves to attack this district.
Dangers: Another first starter, Nostradamus filly 4. Eight Of A Kind has reportedly been working well for some time; while 5. Gypsy Romance first-up since spring behind a quiet trial can complete the trifecta.
How to play it: Too Sharp to win
Odds and Evens: Split
| Race 2 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (2200m): |
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Mainly older stayers do battle here in the Sapphire Coast Cup, and it shapes nicely for lightly raced five-year-old 3. Tavifern to go back-to-back. Powered home from the back to win a handy CL1 third-up, and well capable of making the sharp step up in distance here against better opposition carrying 1.5kg less. Importantly, drawn to get cover settling back in the field.
Dangers: Big watch on 2. Diamond Class who finished best to win a similar-graded race two starts ago before working home okay in provincial company. Also gets a cosy run inside just off the speed. Gap to the rest headed by 1. Island Bay Boy who hasn't won for a long time, but capable of finding his best over further, and dropping back in class. Include 8. Garratt Road who drops sharply in weight fourth-up across exotic bets.
How to play it: Tavifern to win
Odds and Evens: Split
| Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m): |
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Wide open battle, with plenty of chances. Like improving South Coast-based three-year-old 7. Heir Jordan who can peak third-up after charging home to beat all bar the winner 17 days ago. Bit more depth here, but settles a touch closer from a softer draw, and hitting peak fitness now.
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 8. Spitfire Sun who returns off a lengthy break for just his fourth start, and importantly first outing on firm ground. Keep safe too 6. Zedly resuming behind two progressive provincial trials; while both 2. Dodgeball first-up for seven months off a forward trial; and 4. Open Sky with winkers replacing blinkers for his second start; can run into the minor end of the prize.
How to play it: Heir Jordan to win
Odds and Evens: Split
| Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m): |
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A weakened clash for the restricted sprinters shapes well for resuming five-year-old 1. My Bold Boy from a low draw. Won two straight up to country BM 66 level last prep, and while he hasn't publicly trialled, bound to come to hand quickly, and big weight has been off-set by a 3kg claim.
Dangers: Improving Canberra five-year-old 9. Beau Rock is a threat second-up after chasing home a promising sprinter at home off a near six month break, and also gets right back into the race at the weights after the full claim; while keeping safe 5. Zelago resuming from a soft draw.
How to play it: My Bold Boy to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special
| Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1200m): |
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Very tough and tactical affair, with a stack of hopes. Improving four-year-old 3. Rhythmboat is well placed here second-up at good odds. Worked home nicey resuming in a slightly weaker race, but gets good weight relief and draws to get a nice trial just off the speed. Scratched from Saturday's meeting to be saved for this.
Dangers: Speedy four-year-old 5. The Predictor bounced to the front and gave nothing else a look in first-up at Moruya, but naturally tougher here and a trickier gate to overcome. If honest four-year-old 1. Greek Tycoon gets over from the wider barrier okay, he'll be right there. Been in the money all three runs this prep, and building a solid record over this trip. Watch the betting on resuming mare 2. Eberlee off a quiet trial; while 10. Maresca, third-up and down sharply in weight, is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Rhythmboat each way and trifecta 1,3,5/1,2,3,5,10/1,2,3,5,10
Odds and Evens: Odds
| Race 6 BEGA SPRINT (1200m): |
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The main support battle is naturally wide open, with several formlines in play. Keen at the value around lightly raced five-year-old 11. Who But Roo first-up with a light weight for more than six months. Has been strong through the line in two 92m trials nearly four weeks apart, comes to hand quickly, and already has a 40 percent win rate from 10 starts.
Dangers: Plenty to like about 8. Don Luigi who also rates among the best weighted runners dropping back down to the limit 55kg. Finished best off a nice trail to win a feature sprint over this trip before battling on well in a deeper Midway BM 72 at Rosehill. Just needs to get across from a tricky gate, and will be a big factor. So too will be ex-Albury mare 2. Takissacod who resumes for a new provincial yard off two trials with blinkers removed, and was good enough to win a BM 78 race at Caulfield this time last year. Include in exotics, 3. Akeed deep into his prep; 7. Look Only dropping back from metro opposition; and 10. Flying Sultan who has placed in his last two.
How to play it: Who But Roo to win
Odds and Evens: Split
| Race 7 BEGA CUP (1600m): |
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Now the feature race over the mile, and naturally there are plenty of chances. At the value not about to get off progressive and lightly raced Canberra five-year-old 16. Trooper Knuckle who shoots for five wins from his last six starts. Progressed strongly though to a goods closing effort in BM 70 Federal grade two runs back before tracking the speed & going home best to claim a deeper Highway at Rosehill. Hard fit, and gets in beautifully on the limit 54kg.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by smart four-year-old 12. Manderboss who looks primed also on the limit weight after hitting the line hard against BM 78 metro opposition in his last two. Keep safe underrated provincial mare 8. Divine Breath who went close in a Midway BM 72 at Rosehill before having little or no luck from a tough draw in similar company eight days ago. Another one in the each-way mix is metro four-year-old 13. This'llbetheone who has trialled okay since a disappointing effort over this trip at Randwick, and draws inside. Included in exotics 4. Tarn's Prince second-up; while 2. Five Kingdom can improve sharply second up at big odds.
How to play it: Trooper Knuckle each way
Odds and Evens: Evens
| Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m): |
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Keen on tough and consistent mare 6. Lady Tabloid from a good trailing draw, and deep into her prep. Found the line okay on consecutive Highways before Xmas, then hit the line in a handy CL2 at Nowra three weeks back. Stays at her best distance.
Dangers: Keep safe 2. The Herald first-up off a 12-week spell and dominant CL1 win in heavy ground; while 3. Last Quest can run into a place fourth-up.
How to play it: Lady Tabloid to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
BEST BETS:
R1 1. TOO SHARP
R2 3. TAVIFERN
BEST VALUE:
R4 1. MY BOLD BOY
