Goulburn Winners - Tips For Friday, 23rd September 2022

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday’s Goulburn meeting. Selections based on a good to soft track with rain forecast. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Picture: @goulburnraces

Race 1 - 12:03PM HIBERNIAN HOTEL COUNTRY BOOSTED MAIDEN PLATE (1500 METRES)

3. Chaotic Beauty was $8-$6 late in the trade last start at Canberra and ran on well for second after having excuses in the run. Further, she was checked/blocked at a critical stage but once clear, she ran one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting in 12.68 and hit the line hard. The four-year-old produced her career peak figure third-up last prep, and she profiles strongly for this event.

Dangers2. Great Week made a long-wide sustained run at Queanbeyan last start and tried hard into second to beat the rest easily. Moreover, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the decisive margins confirmed the quality. He is rock-hard fit and brings a competitive last-start figure. 5. Jauhera comes through the same race as Chaotic Beauty and will appreciate the rise in distance. Add 1. Fille Cheesesteak to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Chaotic Beauty WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 2 - 12:39PM DOUGLASS BLINDS & SECURITY SCREENS BM 58 (2145 METRES)

2. Crime Spree had too much to do last start at Newcastle after settling at the rear of the field in a farcical tempo. Additionally, the gelding had to make a long-wide sustained and clocked the race's second fastest final 600m sectional in 35.28. The Peter & Paul Snowden trained galloper has a strong platform and is ready to peak, reaching an ideal trip on rain-affected ground. Expect him to look to have the last shot.

Dangers1. Reginald is in career-best form and is coming through time/sectional merit races this prep. Further, he maps to have all favours and can undoubtedly win just some query on the wet ground. 5. Kataway is a last start winner at this tack and is proven at the distance. 6. Welcome My Lady is improving throughout her prep and will be running on.

How to play it: Crime Spree WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 3 - 1:14PM RJ MCCARTHY & CO SOLICITORS CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

1. Miracle Spin profiles well for this after a strong first-up effort in a high-rating race at Kembla. Further, the gelding had too much to do, but he ran on strongly into second, clocking one of the fastest final 600m splits of the meeting in 33.88. The Matthew Smith trained galloper will be fitter for that effort, is proven on the rain-affected ground and brings the best last figure. Expect a bold showing.

Dangers2. Enjolras ran fast time winning at Moruya and is rock-hard fit. He brings strong form lines and can rate to win. 8. Mr Cantankerous is racing consistently and maps to control the pace. Add 3. Vancouver Khan and 5. Almahero to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Miracle Spin WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 4 - 1:49PM BRAD WRITER CONSTRUCTIONS BM 66 (1000 METRES)

1. Lord Paramount raced well but got too far back last start at Warwick Farm 23 days ago and ran on for fourth. Further, he sprinted the entire meeting fastest 400m-200m split in 10.88 and maintained a strong finishing speed to the line. The four-year-old drops significantly in grade, and he has multiple winning figures. Expect him to be savaging the line.

Dangers5. Forms Of Fear has been racing consistently at the provincial level and is a 1000m specialist. He will roll forward and give a sight. 8. Packer has trialled well enough and can sprint fresh. Additionally, all his peak figures have come on rain-affected ground. Market watch 4. Important Product who hasn't had an official trial but has solid form lines for this event.

How to play it: Lord Paramount WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 5 - 2:24PM RJ SIDNEY CRAIG COUNTRY BOOSTED CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

6. Heart Of Vancouver ran strong sustained sectionals throughout, and ran his rivals ragged when winning on debut at Canberra. Moreover, he ran fast time, and the decisive margins confirmed the quality. Expect him to be ridden aggressively early, and he will take some catching.

Dangers2. How Do You Sleep resumes without an official public trial but raced well first-up last prep in a high-rating race. He is more suited over a further distance but is a key late market watch. 4. Oakeys Choice started a $1.90 favourite at this track/distance 14 days ago and ran second. He would have undoubtedly improved from that run and can rate to win. Add 9. Blackhill Kitty to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Heart Of Vancouver WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 6 - 2:59PM KILPATRICK METAL RECYCLERS MAIDEN HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

2. Boy Loves To Run is still learning but was brave in defeat last start at Hawkesbury 27 days ago. The three-year-old led at a fast tempo and raced wayward in the final straight but never shirked his task to the line. He has since had a tick-over trial with winkers and is rock-hard fit. Expect him to roll forward with the step back in distance suiting, and he can rate to win. Each-way.

Dangers17. More Mischief resumes as a gelding and ran fast time/sectionals, winning a recent heat at Warwick Farm. He has early speed, and he'll take some catching over the 1000m. 5. Selous trialled well at Hawkesbury and went through the line full of energy. He has metropolitan form lines and is a key late market watch. Nothing has gone right for 14. Red Card in her two career starts but undoubtedly has the ability. Add 13. Kai Tak and 6. Writrose to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Boy Loves To Run E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 7 - 3:34PM TASH BURLEIGH RACING MAIDEN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

4. Lonrioli started a rock-solid $2 favourite last start at Hawkesbury, and her run had merit. The three-year-old was 1100m-1300m, and she tried hard in defeat, holding for second place. Further, she led at a strong tempo before showing acceleration and peaked on her run over the concluding stages. That race rated highly relative to the day after adjusting for age, class and additional factors. Prior to that start, she was exposed early and slightly outpaced when the tempo quickened but found the line well after balancing up. The Richard & Will Freedman trained galloper profiles well for this event, and her sectional/ratings profile suggests she is ready to run a peak figure third-up. Expect her to roll forward, and any improvement from her last start effort will make her hard to beat.

Dangers2. Floating got too far back first-up over an unsuitable distance but hit the line well, running on for fifth. Moreover, he ran some of the fastest 600m/400m/200m splits of the entire meeting in 34.05/22.93/11.89. The gelding will be fitter for that effort, the rise in distance is ideal and the big Goulburn track suits. Debutante 10. Lilliput was extended in a recent trial at Hawkesbury and is a key late market watch. 11. Sleigh Queen is rock-hard fit/consistent and 6. Gulf Of Lion receives a gear change and will roll forward.

How to play it: Lonrioli WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 8 - 4:14PM TASH BURLEIGH RACING MAIDEN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

1. Golden Doubt resumes as a gelding and has trialled well in preparation for this assignment. Further, the time was solid, and there has been a subsequent winner to come out of that heat. The four-year-old raced well in time/sectional merit races last campaign and looks to have come back improved. He maps to have all favours from the kind draw, and the stable is renowned for having their runners wound up and ready first-up.

Dangers3. Daft Leopard, who represents value, also has been gelded and brings solid form lines to this event. The Brad Widdup runner has had two solid hit outs at the trials and has a strong starting price profile. 4. Badge will be fitter from his debut run at Kembla and the 1300m second-up suits. 11. Offspring will have to overcome a tricky draw, but if she can repeat her last start figure, she can win. Add 10. Loveyoulikeason who receives blinkers for the first time.

How to play it: Golden Doubt WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) &
Daft Leopard WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS

Race 9 - 4:54PM PHOENIX CONVEYANCING CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

10. Perpignan ran time, broke through for her maiden win at Newcastle 24 days ago, and was a dominant winner. The Godolphin galloper sat outside the leader at a moderate tempo, and when asked for an effort, she sprinted hard and ran her 400m-200m split in 11.56. The filly maps to have all favours, brings the best last start figure and can improve again.

Dangers11. Miss Thatcher had all favours last start and battled on ok to finish sixth in a TAB Highway (1400m) last start. She is lightly raced, will roll forward and drops significantly in grade. 1. Retiro got too far back first-up over an unsuitable distance and ran on ok. He has strong form lines and is a market watch. Add 4. Our Belle Fille and 7. Rubigal to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Perpignan WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Best Bet: Race 7 # 4 - Lonrioli

Next Best: Race 3 # 1 – Miracle Spin

Best Value: Race 6 # 2 - Boy Loves To Run


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