EPL Preview - Week 9

September has been a quiet month as far as EPL action goes, with the Queen's passing and international friendlies punctuating the schedule. 

Premier League action moves into October
Premier League action moves into October Picture: Alex Motoc via Unsplash

It will be interesting to see how Palace, Leeds and Brighton shape up as they have not played competitive football for four weeks. 

Four of the top five in the ladder clash in a couple of local derbies that should change the shape of the table and answer a few questions about who are contenders and who are pretenders. At the other end, the bottom four play each other in what will be desperate scraps. 

 

ARSENAL v TOTTENHAM: Saturday 1 October 9.30pm.

There is probably more at stake in this edition of a fierce London rivalry than there has been for many seasons. Both clubs are on the ascendancy and, although probably not title contenders, would feel anything less than Champions League qualification next season is a failure. 

The pair come into this clash following very easy wins last time out, and just a point separates them at the summit of the Premier League. In fact, in the last four seasons, Tottenham has finished ahead of Arsenal but only by 1,2 or 3 points so they are historically an even match. As far as common match-ups this campaign, they have both recorded 2-1 wins at home over Fulham and big wins against Leicester. 

The Gunners won this encounter 3-1 quite early last season when both sides were struggling, a far cry from the situation in 22/23. 

The market has Arsenal as clear favourites. They deserve top billing, but 2.00 is a bit short. In the 14 games the teams have collectively played so far, they have managed to score two goals or more in 11 of them. Expect plenty of action in a blockbuster to open the round.

Prediction:        Draw

Bet:                  Both teams to score @ 1.55      

 

BOURNEMOUTH v BRENTFORD: Sunday 2 October 12.00am.

Full credit to Bournemouth. Since the Anfield massacre they have picked up five points from three matches under caretaker manager Gary O'Neil. A more aggressive approach has restored confidence, particularly against less daunting opposition after a very tough start to the campaign. 

Things were going well for Brentford until they were utterly dominated at home by Arsenal last time. The fortnight off came at the right time.

The Bees are yet to win away from home this season, and the Vitality is not an easy place to visit. The Cherries lost just three games there in the Championship last season and have claimed the scalp of Villa at home this campaign. 

There doesn't look a huge gulf between the sides on recent efforts. Brentford deserve marginal favouritism, but I expect it to be close and with a few goals in a match that will see either team in the top half of the ladder with a win. 

Prediction:       Brentford win

Bet:                  Over 2.5 goals @ 1.98

 

CRYSTAL PALACE v CHELSEA: Sunday 2 October 12.00am.

Palace first up for four weeks against a Chelsea side under a new manager. This game throws up more questions than answers. 

Six points after six matches doesn't look a great return for the home side but it hasn't been an easy start to the campaign. The two losses came against Arsenal and Man City, and in both games the Eagles were highly competitive at times. Draws away at Liverpool and Newcastle are commendable outcomes. 

Chelsea has stuttered its way into 7th. Their three wins have been by single goals against Everton, West Ham and Leicester who between them have won just two games all season – it's not gilt-edged form. 

Potter's arrival is interesting. His success at Brighton, a lower/middle table outfit, won't necessarily convert to the high-pressure, high-ego Blues. Moyes from Everton to Man U and Espirito Santo from Wolves to Spurs are recent examples of this progression not working. 

Chelsea has won the last four encounters at Selhurst Park, and despite the above remarks regarding Potter there should be a honeymoon period. They need this win badly to stay in touch with the top six and can continue the run of success in this fixture.  

Prediction:        Chelsea win

Bet:                  Chelsea to win @ 1.80

 

FULHAM v NEWCASTLE: Sunday 2 October 12.00am.

This is a crucial game for Newcastle. They have had too many draws of late in games they should be winning if European football in 2023 is on the menu. A terrific 3-3 with Man City and an unlucky defeat at Anfield have been overshadowed by stalemates at home against Palace and Bournemouth. Key injuries have played their part, but they need something from this to keep in touch.

Fulham's season has been outstanding, the latest offering a come-from-behind win at Forest. High-flying Arsenal and Spurs are the only defeats in seven. At home, the Cottagers have taken full points from in-form Brighton and Brentford and drew with Liverpool on opening day. 

This will be entertaining and is hard to predict as the betting suggests. 

Prediction:       Draw

Bet:                  Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90

 

LIVERPOOL v BRIGHTON: Sunday 2 October 12.00am.

Brighton's first match in a month and the first in the post-Potter era couldn't be much harder. They sit fourth on the table and deserve their spot. They look super confident in possession and have dominated games, but the reality is that they haven't had a stern test yet. 

Liverpool has experienced mixed fortunes in Europe since their scoreless draw at Goodison on 3 September. Klopp has most of his troops back now and their long shot at the title must start in this match. If 90 points is used as the rock-bottom target to win, the Reds can only afford to concede 15 more points in 32 matches.

Anfield hasn't been a graveyard for the Seagulls recently. A 2-2 draw last season and a shock 1-0 in the 20/21 season should give them some confidence. However, this game has come at a bad time for them. Liverpool will look to hit the potentially rusty visitors hard early and should take the three points.

Prediction:       Liverpool win

Bet:                  Liverpool to lead half-time/full-time @ 2.05

 

SOUTHAMPTON v EVERTON: Sunday 2 October 12.00am.

Southampton is probably the hardest side in the league to predict. A come-from-behind win over Chelsea in late August put them midtable but since then they have lost both games away from home and been held scoreless. 

Conversely there is a sense of steadiness and steeliness in the Toffees that has built at each appearance. Not all that pleasing on the eye in attack, but the inclusion of Tarkowski and Coady has led to a couple of clean sheets in September. They have only leaked five goals from open play all season: just one in the first half.

The head-to-head is interesting. The Saints have won seven of the last nine match ups at St Marys, including a 2-0 win last season. Maybe for that reason they have been posted clear favourites, which on current form doesn't compute. There hasn't been a draw in this fixture since January 2013 but this match could break the run. Expecting a tight tussle with few goals. 

Prediction:       Draw

Bet:                  Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85

 

WEST HAM v WOLVES: Sunday 2 October 3.30am.

The clash of the two lowest scoring sides in the league with a paltry three each after seven games; Haaland has scored that many in one half. 

West Ham were awful against Everton at Goodison a fortnight ago. Fornals and Coufal between them were dispossessed a total of 42 times in that game – Moyes should not persevere with either player who, at present, are nowhere near EPL standard. He's had a further two weeks to work with a squad with a lot of new faces. Of the players brought in only Kehrer at the back has made his mark. This match against fellow strugglers is a real litmus test for the Hammers. 

Wolves were uncharacteristically frail in defence in the first half against Man City. The send off sealed their fate but, at 2-0 down at the time, they were not in the hunt. The addition of an aging Diego Costa to fire up the front line needs to work if Wolves are to pull themselves out of a relegation scrap.

Both meetings last season went 1-0 to the home side. Leaning to West Ham but I can't see any value in the 1.90 on offer, so we'll bank on the win coming in a low-scoring encounter.

Prediction:       West Ham win

Bet:                  West Ham to win and there to be less than 3.5 goals in the match @2.50

 

MANCHESTER CITY v MANCHESTER UTD: Monday 3 October 12.00am.

Manchester Utd passed the first big step of their revival when they ended Arsenal's perfect start at Old Trafford a month ago. The goal scorers Antony and Rashford are crucial to Man U's success this season. If they can put in 40 or 50 between them a top four finish is on the cards.

Fortunes in Europe have been mixed since that victory. On what we have seen in those three games in September, the Red Devils need to go to a whole new level to match their noisy neighbours.

Man City took Wolves apart like no other team has this season when they met two weeks back at Molineux. They will dominate possession in this and, while they might be vulnerable on the counter, should outscore the visitors and potentially go to the top of the ladder for the first time this season. 

In a strange quirk, Man Utd has won four of the last six games at the Etihad in all competitions. However, it was City who convincingly got the three points in their last meeting in March. Expecting more of the same in this one. 

Prediction:        Manchester City win

Bet:                  Both teams to score and there to be over 2.5 goals @2.00

 

LEEDS v ASTON VILLA: Monday 3 October 2.30am.

This is the tale of two teams moving in opposite directions.

After a bright start Leeds has only picked up one point from that past three games, including a 5-2 thumping at the hands of Brentford. Villa on the other hand backed up the unlikely draw against Man City with a dour 1-0 triumph against Southampton. 

This is a difficult game to read on the stats. Leeds at Elland Road in 22/23 is a far different proposition to the side that travels, including a 3-0 thrashing of Chelsea. Conversely Aston Villa has lost all three on the road this campaign, conceding seven times along the way. While this paints a clear picture, the form in the past two seasons between this pair is counter intuitive. Both games at Elland Rd have gone to the visitors, while Leeds have a win and a draw at Villa Park.

Leeds haven't played since 3 September so they might take a while to warm into this game. When it happens, they have far more to offer offensively than Villa and might just get away with it.

Prediction:       Leeds win

Bet:                  Over 2.5 goals @1.77

 

LEICESTER v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Tuesday 4 October 6.00am.

It's a bit early to drag out the 'six-point relegation battle' line but a loss here for Leicester might spell trouble. 

You don't have to look to far to see where these teams' problems lie; they have each conceded 12 goals in the past three games. They start okay: Leicester have gone to the break at 2-2 in their past couple against Brighton and Spurs, while Forest has led at half-time at home in their last two only to walk away with 3-2 defeats.

The tipping point regarding the result is the home ground advantage. Forest have been far less fluent away from the City Ground and, in a high-scoring affair, the Foxes should get off the mark and grant manager Brendan Rodgers a stay of execution for at least another week. 

Prediction:       Leicester win

Bet:                  Leicester to win and there to be over 2.5 goals @2.45


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