It is tempting to over-analyse the aftermath of the World Cup: which teams might have jaded players, will some individuals be on a high (or low), which teams will benefit from the reset, and which will suffer? It is perilous to try and sort that stuff out, and best to stick to the formula of using form and historical data.
The best betting advice is to tread warily in this flurry of matches until the FA Cup third-round weekend of 7/8 January. Since round eight, our predictions have found the right result 58.6% of the time for a level-stake profit on turnover of 22.1%. It will be tough to maintain that momentum with so much uncertainty around these next couple weeks, but here is how Round 17 shapes up. The next preview will appear on the Racing and Sports website on 30 December when we look at the New Year fixtures.
BRENTFORD v TOTTENHAM: Monday 26 December 11.30pm.
Great match-up to launch phase two of the season.
The break could not have come at a worse time for the Bees, who stunned Man City 2-1 at the Etihad on 12 November. That ended a run of four without a win but it has been a strong campaign, with other notable scalps being Man Utd and Brighton. They can lapse defensively at times though and have conceded three or more on four occasions this season.
Tottenham's season has been Jekyll and Hyde; good results against lower opposition, poor results against quality opposition. Arsenal and Man Utd have got the better of them on the road, but otherwise the away form is sound.
The corresponding fixture ended scoreless in 21/22. Another draw would not surprise.
Prediction: Draw (3.50)
CRYSTAL PALACE v FULHAM: Tuesday 27 December 2.00am.
A London Derby between sides that have punched above their weight so far and they each sit comfortably mid-table.
Selhurst Park has been a bit of a fortress for Palace this season. They have won three in a row at the old ground, albeit against sides in the bottom third. To the neutral observer they are easy on the eye, but probably don't score as often as they should. Only one clean sheet in eight at home is another niggling concern, particularly against a team with the attacking capabilities of Fulham.
Fulham went into the break with back-to-back 2-1 losses, but against the two Manchester sides they weren't disgraced and only conceded the decisive goals in the final minutes of those games. They have found the net in their last six games on the road so Palace might be in for a torrid afternoon. The market has the home side as firm favourites, but an upset beckons.
Prediction: Fulham win (3.50)
EVERTON v WOLVES: Tuesday 27 December 2.00am.
Only die-hard fans will set their alarms for this one, the clash of the two least potent attacking sides of the 22/23 season. In fact, Everton and Wolves have between them netted 19 times, just one ahead of Erling Haaland.
Everton was booed off the pitch at their last game at Goodison, a meek 2-0 capitulation against Leicester. They have failed to find the net in five of the last six matches, the latest outing a 3-0 humiliation away at Bournemouth. Lampard is on very thin ice.
Wolves prop up the table, picking up just four points in their last nine games. The silver lining is the arrival of manager Julen Lopetegui who brings an impressive CV to Molineux. However, his first game in charge was a Carabao Cup tie earlier this week against fourth-tier Gillingham and it took Wolves 77 minutes to break the deadlock. Miracles won't happen overnight.
Since Wolves returned to the top-flight in 18/19, honours have been slightly their way with four wins and a draw from eight clashes. They won with a single goal at Goodison in March of this year.
No idea which way to go here, so down the middle it is.
Prediction: Draw (3.10)
LEICESTER v NEWCASTLE: Tuesday 27 December 2.00am.
Very interesting match. If both sides pick up where they left off in November, it will be a cracker.
Leicester has gone from bottom of the table at the start of October to 13th, thanks to vastly better defence which has led to four wins from their last five games. Incredibly, their last goal conceded from open play was 559 minutes ago; only a freakish De Bruyne free-kick has bulged the Foxes' net in that time. Despite some significant departures in recent times, this is still a quality squad. James Maddison will be keen to embarrass Gareth Southgate after the England boss let him sit and rot on the bench in Qatar.
Newcastle is the big story of this season. They went into the hiatus with five consecutive wins, including a dominant display over Chelsea in the final game. Champions League football is the carrot to keep them going. Howe has worked wonders with the likes of Joelinton and Almiron, while defensively Pope in goals, Schar, Targett, Lascelles and Burn have made the Magpies one of the toughest sides to breach in the league.
The last three clashes between these sides at the King Power have been goal feasts: 15 in all. Can't see that trend continuing as both teams are now rock solid at the back and won't want to be giving anything away out of respect for in-form opposition. Newcastle at black odds is too good to pass up.
Prediction: Newcastle win (2.20)
SOUTHAMPTON v BRIGHTON: Tuesday 27 December 2.00am.
A south coast clash that is sure to have some bite. Brighton has one eye on European football next season, Southampton will be happy to play Premier League football next season.
The Saints have had some time over the break under new manager Nathan Jones and will be up for this crucial clash. They come into the game off three straight losses that has plunged them to 19th, but if they get something from this and can topple Forest at home in early January, things will look a little brighter.
Brighton is pretty to watch and have torn apart some good sides this season. Scoring four against Chelsea and three against Liverpool at Anfield is no mean feat. They do, however, have trouble maintaining momentum. They went five games without a win following a four-week break in September, then thumped Chelsea and Wolves, before losing to Villa.
Since arriving in the EPL, the Seagulls have beaten Southampton just once in ten clashes. Six have been drawn which shows how competitive this derby can be. I'm giving the home side a big chance to cause an upset.
Prediction: Southampton win (3.40)
ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL: Tuesday 27 December 4.30am.
The arrival of Unai Emery at Villa Park has delivered nine points from four games and pulled them clear of the relegation scrap into a mid-table position. The latest victory, after conceding inside a minute at Brighton, showed this team has been injected with some real ticker which it lacked under Gerrard.
Liverpool's stuttering season settled down before the World Cup with consecutive wins, but they remain unconvincing. A win over Man City and losses to Forest and Leeds, all in the space of 13 days, shows how unpredictable they have become. On the plus side they had fewer players involved in Qatar than the other top sides so they should be reasonably fresh.
Villa has defeated the Reds just once in the last nine EPL clashes, but is was memorable. Their 7-2 drubbing early in the 20/21 season exposed Liverpool's frailty against the long ball. Other than that, it has been eight from nine for the Klopp's men since the beginning of 2015.
I suspect the break has done Liverpool the world of good. They can win this and continue the press for a top-four spot.
Prediction: Liverpool win (1.75)
ARSENAL v WEST HAM: Tuesday 27 December 7.00am.
The second London Derby of the round and one which neither side can really afford to lose for different reasons.
Arsenal pinched a five-point gap at the head of the table prior to the break, registering three straight wins with clean sheets, and aided by a slip-up by Man City. There is no flash-in-the-pan about the Gunners' resurgence as some pundits have suggested. Since October they have claimed the scalps of Spurs, Liverpool, and Chelsea despite the pressure of leading the league. The loss of Jesus, however, is significant. While his goals may have dried up, the attention he draws inside the opposition box cannot be underestimated.
Conversely, West Ham went to the break with three straight defeats, the last two of them at home. A squad of this quality should not be languishing a point above the drop. After this encounter, the fixture list looks kind for the Hammers, but they still need to get something here, or at least give the Gunners a fright, to take some confidence into upcoming clashes with Brentford, Leeds, Wolves and Everton.
West Ham has just one win at the Emirates since 2007. Arsenal will be desperate to kick this stanza of the season off positively and should get maximum points.
Prediction: Arsenal win (1.50)
CHELSEA v BOURNEMOUTH: Wednesday 28 December 4.30am.
Glamour club Chelsea experienced a terrible slide down the ladder in the five matches preceding the World Cup, picking up just two points and scoring only twice (once from the penalty spot). The long- term problem of lacking a reliable striker upon which to focus their attack continues to haunt the Blues.
Bournemouth were also on the slippery slope until they easily despatched Everton at home at their last appearance. However, away from home the Cherries are still prone to leaking goals; 24 in seven games to be exact.
Curiously, Bournemouth has a terrific record at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League, winning three out of five. However, this is a desperate match for Chelsea if they are to stay on track for Champions League qualification. They should get home.
Prediction: Chelsea win (1.33)
MANCHESTER UNITED v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Wednesday 28 December 7.00am.
There is an illusion that Man United ship is sailing more smoothly these days, but the fact is they haven't won two in a row since 4 September.
The key to their mini revival this season has been that Old Trafford has become a safe haven again, at least since the loss to Brighton on opening day. Wins over Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal at home is top-shelf form. The Ronaldo issue is done and dusted, and the squad looks pretty steady with the likes of Rashford, Shaw, Fernandez returning to form. While they are still vulnerable away from home, the Theatre Of Dreams is once again a fearful visit for most sides.
Forest has begun to gain momentum, picking up two wins and two draws from their last five. Travelling is their big issue. Remarkably, Steve Cooper's men have scored just once on the road this season in seven matches.
The starkness of these form-lines suggests this is a nailed-on win for Manchester United.
Prediction: Manchester United win (1.30)
LEEDS v MANCHESTER CITY: Thursday 29 December 7.00am.
The noose around Jessie Marsch's neck was tightly secured after Leeds lost at home to Fulham on 23 October, but an unlikely win at Anfield then a couple of seven-goal thrillers that went both ways for his side has given the American a stay of execution. The side's flamboyance has returned, although the brittleness in their own box remains a curse. Young Summerville has been a real revelation in the absence of Bamford.
Before the break the title-holders looked like a Testa Rossa stuck in first gear. The incredible run of scoring three or more at home for ten games straight ended when an injury-time penalty got them out of gaol 2-1 against Fulham. Then came the stunning loss to Brentford before virtually the entire squad headed to Qatar; perhaps their minds were on bigger things.
However, with Arsenal showing no signs of fatigue in front, Guardiola needs his men to switch on straight away or this title chase could slip from their grasp. Playing a side as fearless as Leeds might mean a huge win if things go right, or another banana skin moment if the counter-attack catches them out as it has done in the past.
City thumped 11 past Leeds without reply in their two encounters last season. When they win titles, their form from Christmas is relentless. I expect another surge to begin at Elland Road on Thursday morning.
Prediction: Manchester City win (1.30)
