Round 20 looked like being a season-shaper and that's exactly how it panned out. Wolves, Forest, and Southampton won, and the other five strugglers lost, causing a log jam at the bottom that sees just two points separating 14th and 20th.
At the other end, City's controversial loss in the derby gave Arsenal breathing space and tightened up the chasing pack. A midweek win for Pep's men closed the gap to five, but the Gunners have played one game less.
Such a pity for Australian EPL fans that probably the most anticipated clash of the season to date between Arsenal and Man U kicks off at 3.30am on Monday. Another chapter in the title race will be written at the Emirates in the wee hours.
A poor return of just 5.2 units from 10 outlaid last weekend. The late Newcastle winner cost us a close to break-even round. There looks to be some value across the fixtures this weekend so we might get back on course.
LIVERPOOL v CHELSEA: Saturday 21 January 11.30pm.
Many would have predicted this to be a title-race clash at the start of the season. Instead, it sees the meeting of two sides low on confidence and battling away in 9th and 10th, a massive ten points away from Champions League qualification.
Klopp said Liverpool's second-half capitulation to Brighton was the worst he had been associated with at any club. With and without the ball they are a shadow of recent years. The upside for supporters may be that they were so poor at Brighton there will be a burning desire to wipe that from the memory bank as soon as possible; a midweek Cup win at Wolves certainly helped.
Chelsea got the job done against a Palace side who had been out of sorts but had their chances and could have snatched a draw. Sounding like a broken record, but without a legitimate #9 they will continue to struggle. Mudryk and Joao Felix are significant January signings, but they need a target up front to service. Perhaps they should persevere with Aubameyang, or bring someone in.
These sides haven't clashed in 22/23. Chelsea don't mind a trip to Merseyside, in fact in the last 12 games at Anfield in all competitions Liverpool has won just twice, with four wins to the visitors. Chelsea has not beaten a side above them in the league this season, but I can't have Liverpool at odds-on on current form.
Prediction: Draw (3.70)
BOURNEMOUTH v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Sunday 22 January 2.00am.
What a contrast in fortunes of late for these two clubs. In the last ten rounds, Bournemouth has picked up just four points, Forest 15.
It is hard to be too optimistic about the Cherries' survival prospects. They haven't found the net in the last 381 minutes of EPL football, and don't have the squad that suggests there is better things to come.
Forest continued their resurgence with a solid win at home to Leicester last weekend. Their only recent defeats have come at the hands of Arsenal and Man U, and even the away-from-home bogey was exorcised two rounds ago when they got home at St Marys.
Bournemouth registered their only away win for the season when these sides met on 3 September, but that was in the middle of a run of six games unbeaten. They come to this with the confidence considerably lower. The bookies have this just about lineball, but I fancy the Garibaldi Reds can continue their good form and pull well clear of the relegation scrap.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest win (2.70)
LEICESTER v BRIGHTON: Sunday 22 January 2.00am.
If ever a team didn't want a six-week mid-season hiatus, it was Leicester City. Prior to the break they had won four from five; since the resumption they have lost four from four. With no timeframe set for the return of the vitally important James Maddison, things look grim for the former champions.
Conversely, Brighton continues to scale the heights and added a hapless Liverpool to their big-name conquests last weekend. There is no fluke to this success; they pass the ball sharply and with accuracy close-range, then at the right time explode in attack and are very difficult to defend.
The Seagulls came from a goal down to trounce Leicester 5-2 when they clashed earlier in the year on the south coast. Brighton is on a run of three straight away wins, Leicester has lost three straight at home. I've seen nothing to make me think this trend will change in this encounter, with the odds available about the visitors surprisingly generous.
Prediction: Brighton win (2.10)
SOUTHAMPTON v ASTON VILLA: Sunday 22 January 2.00am.
The Saints ended a run of six straight losses with a thrilling win at Goodison last time around. Ward-Prowse again pulled his side out of trouble; the second goal from a free-kick was one of his specials. It is not a squad glittering with stars but they do always put in a shift, and won't go down without a fight.
Villa got the money at home against Leeds but were very fortunate. The visitors were clearly the better side for most of the game and could easily have won by two or three. There is certainly more ticker there since Emery arrived, but it must be a little concerning for fans that Wolves and Leeds have had the better of them for large chunks of games in the past two weeks. The luck will run out sooner or later, but maybe not in this one.
The Villains got the job done 1-0 when they met in September, a game which turned out to be Gerrard's last win at the helm. Since Villa's return to the top-flight in season 19/20, the sides have met seven times with the wins going four-three in Southampton's favour.
The last win at St Marys for the home side was against Chelsea in August, so they are due, but I'm finding it hard to split them.
Prediction: Draw (3.20)
WEST HAM v EVERTON: Sunday 22 January 2.00am.
This will be a desperate struggle between biggish clubs looking down the barrel of relegation, headed by managers whose nooses are tightening. If this ends a draw, we might see two sackings from one game in a first for the Premier League!
There are similarities to be drawn. Little brothers in their respective cities but with proud histories, albeit most of the glory happening long along, and fervently supported by fans who are increasingly disillusioned by limp displays. Everton escaped narrowly last season so they are well-versed in the battle to avoid the drop. The Hammers on the other hand have really slumped after back-to-back- European qualification seasons. Despite a massive off-season spend they are the most pedestrian side in the league.
Everton looked the sharper of the two in their respective defeats last weekend, and probably deserved something from their enthralling clash with Southampton. West Ham was poor once again at Wolves; it is difficult to remember their last uplifting display.
Since the turn of the century, the results in London in this fixture read West Ham four wins, six draws, Everton 12 wins. Couldn't believe it when I saw West Ham come up at $1.75 – I must be watching a different team. The visitors are massive overs in what looks a flip of the coin game.
Prediction: Everton win (4.75)
CRYSTAL PALACE v NEWCASTLE: Sunday 22 January 4.30am.
After a slow start Palace pushed an in-form Man United and deserved their point at home on Wednesday night. Olise's free kick to equalise was one of the best we've seen in a while, while De Gea's effort to tip over Edouard's first-half strike is early favourite for save of the season. Following on from a gutsy effort against Chelsea, things are looking a little brighter in south London.
Newcastle maintained their momentum with a heart-stopping win over an under-rated Fulham outfit. It was just the third time the Cottagers had been kept goal-less this campaign, and their first loss without scoring, so it was a considerable feat by the Magpies. Defensively they are peerless in the league this season. They haven't conceded more than one goal in a game in their last 14 outings, and now have five straight clean sheets. While their efforts in front of goal might be stuttering a little, the other end of the park has them covered.
Palace continue to find scoring hard work, so the visit of Newcastle is daunting. The last five meetings at Selhurst Park have been tight, low-scoring affairs, with a win apiece and three draws. Newcastle should get away with this in another close one, although the price on offer is a little skinny.
Prediction: Newcastle win (1.85)
LEEDS v BRENTFORD: Monday 23 January 1.00am.
Expecting an entertaining clash as usual when the Whites are involved. They must be heart-breaking to follow, but from a neutral perspective they are terrific value. How they didn't beat West Ham two games back, then get at least a point at Villa last weekend, is astonishing. The good news for them is the Bamford scored twice in their big mid-week Cup win over Cardiff. Add him up front ahead of the livewire Gnonto and they will give every opponent nightmares.
Brentford was clinical against Bournemouth at home most recently without dazzling. They have now built a commendable seven-game streak without defeat in a run that has included clashes with Spurs, Man City and Liverpool. Frank constructs outstanding game plans to adapt to each opponent. One of them is the absorb then counter-punch approach that worked so well at the Etihad. Given Leeds' bull-at-a-gate approach, expect something similar today.
The Bees spanked Leeds 5-2 at home back in September although it wasn't until the 80th minute that they put the visitors away for good. Remarkably, the bookies have the home side favourites quite clearly which is puzzling to say the least. Happy to back Brentford to keep their magnificent season going.
Prediction: Brentford win (2.90)
MANCHESTER CITY v WOLVES: Monday 23 January 1.00am.
Man City seemed in total control at 1-0 against their old foe at Old Trafford last Saturday. The equaliser has been hotly debated – for mine Rashford shadows the ball far too closely and for far too long not to be considered 'involved in active play'. Regardless, the comeback shocked City and once again showed vulnerability of late. Pep reacted by resting a number of key players against Spurs on Thursday night and the move looked to back-fire until a wonderful second half revival that saw them take three valuable points. To win the title they will need to be close to flawless through the final 18 matches. Recent evidence suggests they are not consistent enough to pull it off, but the Spurs fight-back showed they can never be written off.
Wolves got the money against West Ham and continue to slowly improve under new management. They have recently been defeated by Arsenal and Man U but managed to keep both of those sides scoreless in the first-half – they are not push-overs.
At the Etihad, it is impossible to tip against the Sky Blues, particularly with the likes of De Bruyne, Walker, Cancelo and Foden likely to be recalled on fresh legs. They won 3-0 at Molineux earlier in the season to make it five straight wins against Wolves. Anything less than three points in this one would be disastrous in their title chase.
Prediction: Manchester City win (1.18)
ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UNITED: Monday 23 January 3.30am.
An eagerly awaited clash and probably the most important between these rivals in the post Ferguson/Wenger period.
Arsenal made yet another big statement last weekend when they easily accounted for Spurs in the north London derby. There are no weaknesses in this side, and with a five-point buffer and a game in hand they have their destiny firmly in their own hands. Significantly, they line up here against the only team to lower their colours in 22/23, way back on 4 September. Since then, they have dropped just four points, winning ten from 12.
Man United's hopes were dealt a severe blow when Casemiro picked up a fifth yellow against Palace midweek and must sit this one out. That, along with losing the lead in injury time at Selhurst Park, puts them in a less then perfect state of mind after winning nine in a row prior to Wednesday night. Ten Hag's reshuffle will probably involve the inclusion of Fred or McTominay which is retrograde.
The Gunners have won three of the last four EPL games against Man U at the Emirates, with the other game a draw. The Red Devils' momentum may have stalled a little following midweek events, and Arsenal will take full advantage.
Prediction: Arsenal win (1.83)
FULHAM v TOTTENHAM: Tuesday 24 January 7.00am.
Fulham had a quick back-up and a long trip to the north of England but matched Newcastle last weekend, only to succumb in the dying stages to a scrappy goal. Under Silva, and with some quality signings off-season, they have gone from a good Championship side to Europa League contenders.
At home, the Cottagers have lost just twice this campaign against Newcastle and Man U, the latter defeat coming in the final minute of regular time. On the negative side, six of their seven defeats this season have come against teams above them in the ladder, including a 2-1 loss at Tottenham.
Spurs woes post World Cup continued Thursday evening when they surrendered a two-goal half-time lead at the Etihad. It was the fifth time in the past seven matches that at least two goals have been scored against them in a half of football, although usually it is in the first period. They have conceded 14 goals in their last six games against top-ten opposition. A big part of the problem is poor possession retention when playing out from the back. Fulham like to press hard and will again cause Spurs problems in this department.
Craven Cottage has been a happy hunting ground for Tottenham, with six wins in a row there dating back to 2011. However, the 2023 Fulham side is a vastly different proposition. There should be a few goals in this – it promises to be a classic London derby. A win for the home side will put them ahead of the visitors and in rarefied air. A Spurs win puts Champions League qualification back on the table. Very hard one to call.
Prediction: Draw (3.50)
