Brad Gray's tips for Rosehill gardens (Saturday)

Racecourse : Rosehill Gardens.
Racecourse : Rosehill Gardens. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

Race 1 - 12:20PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

15. Syrian Star would've been fighting out the finish in a Highway Handicap won by Smokeshow first up if not for striking traffic issues in the straight. That was over 1100m. She then backed that up with a fast-finishing fourth at Canterbury in benchmark company. The three-year-old filly was allowed to find her feet at the tail of the field before doing her best work through the line. Imagine that this has always been a target race for Rod Northam, third up out to 1400m on the quick turnaround. Last start was just the bridging run she needed on the way through. There's plenty of intent to be read into the set up with the quick eight day back up. The cherry on top is the barrier. She maps to get every chance in the run.

Dangers: How do you knock the claims of 2. Super Extreme? You can't. He is the definition of a proven Highway Handicap performer. He has run in three of them for two wins and a narrow second. The claim of Dylan Gibbons offsets the 60kg impost. It's a similar case for his stablemate 14. Indicative. He has the advantage of tactical speed which will see him make his own luck again. He is seven weeks between runs, however. 4. Preemptory will be at the opposite end of the field. Luck has abandoned him on a couple of occasions recently including last start at Randwick. The knock is how much of a head start he'll be forced to give away. 12. Atmospheric Rock is a lightly-raced three-year-old still with upside. 17. Blood River has knockout claims.

How To Play It: Syrian Star WIN

Race 2 - 12:55PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

6. New Republic has his convictions, there is no denying that but inclined to look wide in a race that could be won by just about anything in the field. It promises to be truly run which is the first part of the puzzle for New Republic. The four-year-old will relish that. He just needs to get the first half of his race right. He can be tardy at the start but from the low draw, hopeful that Brett Prebble can at least hold a midfield position. The son of Dissident will need the splits to go his way thereafter. New Republic's first up last was a complete forget as he never saw daylight then second up he bombed the start, got out the back and made late ground to get into sixth. He was already looking for further. Third up, out to 1500m is an appealing set up and he'll be strong to the line.

Dangers2. True Crime is a tough, honest on pacer that'll make his own luck. Had his chance last start at the midweeks out to 1400m for the first time so there is naturally a little query out to 1500m now but could take a trail if 15. Carolina Fire is bustled out to take up the running. Carolina Fire has claims herself having beaten Glint Of Silver two starts ago before running third in a similar race to this two weeks ago. 1. Cheerful Legend maps to be giving away a big head start given his pattern and barrier but looks for him late. Suspect 10. Oh Golly Gosh is going better than the form guide suggests while 3. Kibosh looks ready now third up given she spent a year on the sidelines prior to this preparation.

How To Play It: New Republic WIN

Race 3 - 1:30PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

15. Parisal has been asked to take the leap from a maiden win at the midweeks into a BM78 that could be a Group race given it's depth but the Astern filly couldn't get a better set up to make that transition. The filly was sent around as a $1.55 favourite first up and after going straight to the front it was simply a matter of how far. Here she is two weeks later with just 50kg on her back after the claim of Zac Lloyd. The daughter of Astern maps to trail what promises to be a hot speed. There will be a race within a race just to find the front. Parisal has a fitness edge on a couple of her key rivals too. On the strength of her return win, in slick time, she promises to race through the grades back into black type company.

Dangers6. Economics gave his rivals a touch up in the Listed Heritage Stakes first up last preparation over this same track and trip. That catapulted him into Coolmore Stud Stakes calculations. It wasn't smooth sailing to get there, scratched at the barriers from his lead up race. Don't know where he gets to in the run. 3. The Poacher has knockout claims doing no work early from the inside gate. He has put together a brilliant record and love the way he has trialled this time back. 9. Party For One is another roughie set up to run well. She is so frustrating but her record doesn't do her justice. Look out late if the breaks finally go her way. It could be handlebars down, catch me if you can with 11. Insurrection again.

How To Play It: Parisal WIN

Race 4 - 2:05PM FUJITSU GENERAL SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100 METRES)

3. King's Gambit had his colours lowered in the Canonbury Stakes last start by Red Resistance, despite being sent around as a $1.28 favourite. The winner was too fit, too powerful and got too easy of a time in front. King's Gambit wasn't anywhere near as dynamic as he was when winning at Caulfield on debut which saw him slingshot into Golden Slipper favouritism. He's lost that mantle subsequently but all is certainly not lost with this two-year-old. Particularly knowing how Peter and Paul Snowden prepare their youngsters. He'd have had plenty of improvement with eyes firmly on peaking up for grand final day. This shapes to be another intriguing battle of tactics in the early stages but he draws to be right there ready to pounce.

Dangers: 2. Cylinder was exceptional from the back of the field at Newcastle on debut when second to 5. Fire Lane over 900m. He was then held up at Caulfield at start two as an odds on favourite. The winner Little Brose franked that form line by running second to Barber on Saturday. The trial of Cylinder since then was a beauty. Fire Lane looks your likely leader in what could be hugely advantageous given the make up of this race, especially when you consider the Rosehill 1100m. 8. Platinum Jubilee is already a Gimcrack winner and ran second in the Magic Millions Classic. 7. Mumbai Muse was an eye catcher on debut and promises to be strong late again. Might be looking for a touch further though.

How To Play It: King's Gambit WIN

Race 5 - 2:40PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Super Pursuit is flying without reward this preparation. The former Kiwi brings that upon himself with his get-back style but it might all finally be set to fall into place for the six-year-old on Saturday. He had the excuse of heat stress when fifth behind Mariamia two starts ago and wasn't suited back to 1100m on that occasion. He bounced back with a fast-finishing third out to 1350m three weeks ago, beaten by a lack of speed. He savaged the line to run Think About It, who has since won again, to half a length, clocking the second quickest last 600m split of the meeting. In his first and second up runs he found the line behind I Am Me. With due respect to his rivals this week, there doesn't look to be any up and coming stars among them.

Dangers: It looks a particularly strong crop of three-year-old fillies at the moment and keen to find out where 13. Tajneed fits in among them. She raced exclusively in Melbourne in her first campaign, earning a late berth in the Thousand Guineas, failing on the Heavy 10 track. Have liked the way she has trialled this time back. 14. Lindermann found the 1200m a touch too sharp first up. Should be able to bounce off that out to 1400m and he can take up another forward position. 12. Kokoro won against the pattern first up at the midweeks. Might want the mile now but that confirms that he has returned well. 5. For Valour and 3. Willinga Rufio will give a sight, proving they don't bring about each other's undoing.

How To Play It: Super Pursuit WIN

Race 6 - 3:20PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300 METRES)

2. Mariamia doesn't have a straightforward map to overcome. That's the only knock if playing devil's advocate for a moment but we'll back in Tim Clark to find a spot in the running line. The six-year-old mare produced a career best performance three weeks ago when making a mess of her rivals in the G2 Expressway Stakes, leaving Golden Mile to eat her dust. That was on the back of a brave first up win over 1100m despite giving away plenty of weight and covering ground. If she reproduces what she did last start, it's game over. It's never quite as straightforward as that in this game but there's no reason why she won't get near to that mark again. Even allowing for some natural regression, she is still entitled to be a short-priced favourite. Mariamia is now three from three at Rosehill too.

Dangers10. Pavitra adds a wildcard element to the race being the line three-year-old. She's one of the early favourites for the Oaks so the question has to be whether she is going to be sharp enough for 1300m but if she finds the front and gets into her rhythm, she looks dangerous, particularly on the strength of her most recent trial win. 1. Electric Girl will forever be an under the radar style of mare. Only knows how to run well and she is beautifully placed under the conditions of this race as the equal highest rated runner along with Mariamia. 7. Katalin is an explosive fresh mare and saves her best for dry tracks so the formula is right for her to run up to her best. 6. Roots is undefeated first up herself but has never resumed at this level. 5. Cliff's Art the blowout.

How To Play It: Mariamia WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM PARRAMATTA CUP (1900 METRES)

10. King Frankel won three of his first four Australian starts, charging through the grades, before trainer Mark Newnham sent him to the paddock with an eye on autumn staying features. The one defeat was due to a track that heavily favoured fence in run so he had a genuine excuse. The five-year-old is being set for the Sydney Cup over two miles but this looks a perfect kick off for him. He isn't a plodding style of stayer. He has speed. He showed that in the way he won his most recent trial at Randwick over 1200m. Ending last campaign on the high of a dominant Beauford win at Newcastle has raised expectations this carnival. The task on Saturday is made tougher given that his key rivals have a fitness advantage but they don't have his scope to keep improving.

Dangers: 11. Irish Legend looks the likely leader, keeping King Frankel company up front. Brock Ryan has got the timing spot on at his past two starts which has resulted in to two bold front-running wins. That won't change here. 5. Banju has his first run beyond the mile but the timing is right to try. He has won three straight, winning from behind and in front. That versatility could prove significant out to 1900m for the first time. 7. Raging Bull has knockout claims. He was 1400m to 2400m second up yet didn't shirk his task. He won over the Rosehill 1800m last campaign. 3. Bonny Ezra loves Rosehill too while 12. Aravene gets the blinkers back on and there was more to her first up run than the form guide suggests.

How To Play It: King Frankel WIN

Race 8 - 4:40PM PETALUMA HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400 METRES)

3. Aft Cabin will be looking to join Anamoe, The Autumn Sun and Pierro as recent odds on winners of the Hobartville Stakes and further cement his spot as one of the most exciting three-year-olds in the country. Aft Cabin returned with an empathic victory in the Eskimo Prince Stakes. That's the obvious form reference for this and the fact that Zou Tiger and Osipenko are second and third favourite tells you everything you need to know about the stranglehold Aft Cabin has on the race. He gapped both of them. The barrier looks tricky on paper but the son of Astern has the gate speed to offset that. That looks significant given the lack of pace on paper. He won the Caulfield Guineas Prelude from outside of the leader. Over to you Tim Clark.

Dangers5. Zou Tiger was the 'best of the rest' in the Hobartville and could find himself as the default leader. The last time he tackled the Rosehill 1400m he ran a gutsy third in the G1 Golden Rose behind Jacquinot and In Secret. 4. Osipenko was squeezed out soon after the start first up and that spat him out the back. He then covered ground three wide. The race was a disaster from start to finish. Despite everything that went against him, he still fond the line. This'll top him off perfectly for the mile third up. Talented Kiwi 2. Pier at least brings a different form line. He is already a Group One winner over the mile and should be coming here a last start winner if not for bad luck. It was hard to miss the runs of 9. Communist and 10. Brosnan in the Eskimo Prince.

How To Play It: Aft Cabin WIN

Race 9 - 5:20PM CHANDON HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

This race looks 1. Cross Talk's to lose. Black odds look good odds. He's the best horse in the race, flies fresh and maps to get complete control. The lightly-raced five-year-old has won five of his 10 starts and he raced his way through the Group One Epsom over the spring where he started single figure odds. That was on the back of a third in the Bill Ritchie behind Top Ranked. The Waterhouse-Bott-trained gelding has won both of his trials this time back, with regular rider Tim Clark in the saddle. Cross Talk has been stretched out to the mile in the past but he appears to be at his most dynamic over 1400m. The only possible knock, if there is one, is that he is yet to win on a good track. That could be deceptive, however.

Dangers: 5. Lackeen will jump on the back of Cross Talk in the run and he too boasts a handy fresh record. First up last preparation he was beaten by the barrier. There wasn't a lot between Lackeen and Cross Talk when they met in the Bill Ritchie. 10. Bullfinch gets some weight relief up in grade and the four weeks between runs helps him cope with the drop back from the mile to 1400m. There's good depth to his form lines. 8. Cuban Royale finds himself in career best form as an eight-year-old. His two recent wins were at Randwick but reluctant to overlook him again. 2. Superium is going to need another special ride from Zac Lloyd to get him home, like the one he produced back in December on this six-year-old.

How To Play It: Cross Talk WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM CLEANAWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Midwest found the front over this track and trip five weeks ago before going down narrowly to Mariamia. Spacewalk ran a luckless third. Those two have subsequently come out and won again with Mariamia fancied to also take out the Millie Fox Stakes earlier. The four-year-old was hard to get a read on prior to last start given his form lines in Victoria and South Australia. That isn't the case now. The gap between runs would be by design from the Anthony and Sam Freedman stable given how well the son of Zoustar has reacted in the past to such freshen ups. Midwest's record of 14 starts for six wins and six minor placings speaks for itself. He isn't going to have it all his own way up front but he's the obvious starting point in assessing the winning chances here.

Dangers4. Handle The Truth has knockout claims. In two of his past three first up assignments he has tackled 1000m and ran well behind Nature Strip and Eduardo. It comes down to if he can keep in touch early. 2. Andermatt has been teasing without winning most recently but his last start fourth behind Remarque was excellent, running sharp closing splits. Has raced well over the Rosehill 1100m earlier in his career. 10. Quick Tempo had no luck through that same race. Look for him to balance up out the back before charging late. 8. Maotai never travelled in the Gold Coast last start. Might pay to forgive him that. 5. Kiss Sum is more of a 1400m-1600m style horse these days but his class will see him run well. 11. Kote might need a wet track to show his best.

How To Play It: Midwest WIN


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