English Premier League Preview - Round 25

Due to the Carabao Cup final between Newcastle and Man Utd this Sunday, there are only eight EPL fixtures this weekend, with Brighton and Brentford getting a rest.

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We couldn't possibly see tumult like last weekend again. The bottom three sides all won, moving Everton and Bournemouth out of the drop zone to be replaced by Leeds and West Ham.

Man City lost most of the advantage gained by their win over Arsenal when they drew at Forest, wasting a multitude of chances.

Arsenal regained the ascendancy with the help of a dodgy offside decision that went their way in the 93rd minute. You must wonder whether it's just meant to be for the Gunners in 2023.

Liverpool struck early then held on against ten-man Newcastle. The Reds seem to attract howlers from opposition goalkeepers, starting with Pickford in the derby, then Pope's brain explosion at St James, then the normally unflappable Courtois in the Champions League.  However, any notions that they have turned the corner went out the window midweek when they were mauled by Real Madrid, conceding five at Anfield for the first time in European competition.

Further misery for Chelsea and West Ham, two London sides whose pre-season expectations are light years away from what they are achieving. On the flip side, Fulham move into sixth in a remarkable return to the top-flight. Since the turn of the century, only Ipswich Town in 2000/01 has finished higher than seventh in their first season back in the top division.

Man Utd weathered a Leicester storm and showed their class to prevail again. They are probably too far back to win the league but are there to pounce if the current quinella falter.

After an atrocious tipping performance last weekend (probably not Robinson Crusoe there), this round looks tricky as well but let's see if we can sort out some winners.

FULHAM v WOLVES: Saturday 25 February 7.00am.

Contrasting fortunes for these two sides last weekend, with Fulham winning away at Brighton as underdogs, and Wolves losing at home to struggling Bournemouth as warm favourites.

For Fulham, it was a third consecutive clean sheet. In fact, since a 2-1 loss to Man U on 13 November, the Cottagers have not conceded more than one goal in their last nine games which goes a long way to explaining their lofty position on the table. At home this season, they have lost three times but all against top-five opposition. Marco Silva has done a marvellous job with some clever off-season recruitment. A return to European football is a real possibility.

Wolves came back to earth against the Cherries. It was a pivotal game as a win would have taken them to 13th – as it stands they are now only three off the relegation zone and face Liverpool away, Spurs, and Newcastle away in their next three. March will be a crucial month at Molineux.

The reverse fixture back on 13 August was scoreless, making it four straight games in which Fulham has failed to find the net against Wolves. Since the turn of the century in all competitions, Fulham has only beaten Wolves four times in 23 meetings, all of them at Craven Cottage. Expect a response from the visitors, who know they must get something from this game with their tough road ahead.   

Prediction: Draw (3.20)

EVERTON v ASTON VILLA: Sunday 26 February 2.00am.

It wasn't the most convincing display against Leeds but Everton managed a second straight home win under Sean Dyche and pulled themselves out of the drop zone. A stunning strike from an unlikely source in the stalwart Coleman was the difference.

On the other hand, Villa played extremely well and deserved a point at home to Arsenal. Somehow there was no off-side call for the 93rd minute Jorginho strike that put the Gunners ahead. If not for that goal, the last one would not have been scored as Martinez went forward for a corner. Emery has his side playing attractive football, but defensively there are concerns with 11 conceded in the last three games.

The Villains defeated the Toffees 2-1 at the start of the season when both sides were under different managers. A trip to Goodison has been fruitful for Villa recently, with wins in the last two seasons and a draw in 19/20. Everton will defend well at home but I doubt their strike-power, and the visitors have enough ammunition to take all three points on the road.

Prediction: Aston Villa win (3.00)

LEEDS v SOUTHAMPTON: Sunday 26 February 2.00am.

The bottom two collide in what is obviously a crunch match. Both under new stewardship, with former Watford boss Javi Gracia in charge at Elland Road and Ruben Selles the interim manager of Southampton.

Leeds was poor in the first half but improved in the second when defeated 1-0 at Everton last weekend. For the second consecutive week they get a crack at fellow cellar dwellers and cannot afford to let this chance go. In Gracia they have a manager who did a good job at Watford (not good enough for the unamenable owners) and got them to an FA Cup Final. He has inherited a side that has been coached to go all-out by the last two gaffers; with just four clean sheets for the campaign they need more stability at the back if they want to survive.

Selles had been in charge of the Saints for about five minutes before their shock win at Chelsea, again thanks to a Ward-Prowse special, so he cannot really take credit. He is an unknown quantity at this level of the game. That win was the fifth of the campaign, and strangely the fourth away from home.

Leeds' has won just one of the last nine at home and desperately need the three points here as there next four include Chelsea, Brighton and Arsenal. The vociferous home crowd can get them over the line.

Prediction: Leeds win (2.00)

LEICESTER v ARSENAL: Sunday 26 February 2.00am.

Leicester threw everything at Man Utd early doors last weekend but the Red Devils held firm and put away their chances to score what was a comfortable win in the end. It was the third time this season the Foxes have gone into a game on the back of two wins and come away in defeat without scoring. It also highlighted their problems this season against the better clubs. In eight matches so far against teams that currently sit in the top six, they have lost seven times.

Arsenal got away with the three points against Villa last time but not without controversy. In the circumstances, however, against a testing opponent, they fought back well after trailing twice and proved they won't be intimidated by the chasing Manchester clubs.

The Gunners have won the last two encounters at the King Power after failing to win and scoring just once in their previous four visits. This should be a highly entertaining game that might be a little like the Villa/Arsenal match last weekend. With their confidence restored it looks like Arsenal will get away with this, but the price is a bit skinny.

Prediction: Arsenal win (1.70)

WEST HAM v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Sunday 26 February 2.00am.

It seems every week there is a 'must win' game for the Hammers, but for David Moyes' sake it is certainly true of this clash. He is even-money to be the next manager sacked, and if this goes pear-shaped for the Irons that looks delicious value.

After another tepid display against Spurs, Moyes was openly critical of his team for the first time. Rice showed uncharacteristic frustration on the pitch and lost his cool towards the end with Hojbjerg. Hopefully, Moyes has been introspective as well and should question his decision to leave Ings on the bench until the 71st minute. Most Hammers fans would love to see a Scamacca/Ings front pairing with Antonio an impact player.

Forest has been outplayed at their last two home games but walked away with four points against Leeds and Man City. Scrapping results like that will keep them up, although away from home they continue to struggle.

With Pacqueta and Zouma back for West Ham, a positive response is on the cards. Five of their seven after this are against sides in the top seven, so a win is essential.

Prediction: West Ham win (1.75)

BOURNEMOUTH v MANCHESTER CITY: Sunday 26 February 4.30am.

For the second weekend in a row Man City travel to the home of a relative minnow, and although they won't openly admit they will be expecting maximum points. Aside from Bernardo Silva's glorious strike, the champions were wasteful and should have been four or five clear before Forest grabbed their late goal. Another frustrating draw midweek in the Champions League added to a poor week for Pep.

Bournemouth did a great job to travel to the midlands and eke out a massive win for them over Wolves. It was only their second on the road this season and dragged them once again out of the drop zone. During the Cherries last stint in the EPL they played Man City ten times and lost them all. Add a 4-0 belting at the Etihad at the beginning of this campaign and the ledger reads 11-0-0-11, 5 goals for, 34 against.

It is hard to see City slipping up again.

Prediction: Manchester City win (1.30)

CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL: Sunday 26 February 6.45am.

Palace hasn't won a game since New Year's Eve but have picked up points against four teams in the top nine. An upset was on the cards last weekend until Brentford equalised in the 90th. It has been said here repeatedly, but a lack of firepower holds the Eagles back, with just six scored in their last ten matches. Zaha is back training and Palace need him desperately.

Liverpool look like their old selves in patches, but with a leaky defence the momentum is impossible to maintain. The five shipped at home to Real on Tuesday evening was the fourth time in 2023 they have conceded three or more. Another interesting stat is that the last time the Reds have scored a goal after the 50th minute was Boxing Day. It may mean many things, a lack of ruthlessness one possibility.

The silver lining for Klopp's team is that their last defeat at the hands of today's rival was in April 2017. Since then, Liverpool won ten straight until a 1-1 draw at Anfield earlier this season. While Champions League football in 23/24 looks off the table, a Europa spot is still on the cards, but they need to keep winning.

Prediction: Liverpool win (1.75)

TOTTENHAM v CHELSEA: Monday 27 February 12.30am.

Rarely do Spurs start favourite against Chelsea regardless of the venue, but it's hard to argue with the bookies' assessment. Chelsea spend and spend yet the results get worse and worse, a humiliating 1-0 defeat to last-placed Southampton last weekend surely rock-bottom. Remarkably, since Potter's arrival in October, Chelsea has scored more than one goal just once in 14 EPL fixtures, a couple at home to Bournemouth on 27 December.

Spurs did enough to overcome West Ham last weekend but it was hardly one for the highlights reel. Since the turn of the year they have recorded four wins but also four losses, making a climb up the ladder impossible. The Son/Kane combination was back in swing at the London Stadium, and a fully fit Richarlison adds to the strike-power.

Tottenham got out of gaol when these sides met at Stamford Bridge in August, but Chelsea has been on the slide since. Historically, things look brighter for the Blues. They have won without conceding at their last three visits to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Indeed, the last eight clashes at both venues have seen Chelsea win six, two drawn, and Spurs finding the net just three times.

A draw doesn't really help either side, but it is tough to split this pair.

Prediction: Draw (3.30)


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