Newcastle Winners - Tips for Thursday, 30th March 2023

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a heavy to soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Racecourse : Newcastle
Racecourse : Newcastle Picture: twitter newcastleraces

Race 1 - 1:10PM SHARP OFFICE MIDWAY 2YO MAIDEN HANDICAP (900 METRES)

Tricky race to start, and leaning towards debutante 5. Harlemite who has a positive race setup, and she represents value. The filly showed gate speed but drifted back from an awkward draw and raced wide in a recent heat at Hawkesbury. Further, she found the line well under a tight grip, wasn't extended and went through the line full of energy. She is immature/green, but barrier one will allow her to follow the rail, and she can fight out the finish with even luck.

Dangers: First starter 7. Rapt looks a nice type, and she hit the line well to win a recent trial at Beaumont Newcastle. She is well educated and expect her to be strong late. 6. Pretty Rho brings a race experience edge and comes through some class races. She has peaked on both of her runs in her career, but the step back to 900m looks ideal. 2. The Escape raced wayward on debut at Gosford and can improve. His stablemate 4. Bakerloo will roll forward and can give a sight.

How to play it: Harlemite WIN ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 2 - 1:50PM AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK MAIDEN HANDICAP (900 METRES)

1. Secret Revolution showed natural gate speed first-up at Warwick Farm but was restrained from a wide draw and had too much to do. He got too far back in a slow tempo, made a long-wide sustained run, and clocked one of the fastest 400m-200m splits of the meeting before peaking on his run. He will be fitter for that, drops back to the provincial circuit and has a strong ratings profile for this event.

Dangers2. Gitalong returns as a gelding and has trialled well in preparation for his first-up assignment. The two-year-old quickened nicely in a recent heat at Rosehill and went through the line full of energy. He has solid form lines and maps to have all favours. 5. Welcome Gypsy was heavily backed on debut at Canberra but performed below market expectations. She can bounce back and has trialled up well. 7. Melissa has a fitness edge and add 6. Greyonce to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Secret Revolution WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 3 - 2:25PM NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK MAIDEN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Salaasel looks to have returned in fantastic order after two solid trials. The filly wasn't extended in both heats going through the line full of energy and is ready to perform well first up. She is lightly raced with strong form lines dating back to a placing behind TAB Everest (1200m) champion Giga Kick. The Snowden galloper receives a gear change, maps to have all favours and, with even luck, will be hard to hold out.

Dangers: Both 2. Nosey Parker and 6. Tamar are suited over more ground but can sprint fresh with the big track suiting. Debutante 7. Vegas On Fire has had two quiet trials leading into this event and is a key late market watch. 5. Heiress Hera is now under the guidance of Ciaron Maher & David Eustace and can give a sight rolling forward from a middle draw.

How to play it: Salaasel WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 4 - 3:05PM HUNTER VALLEY PREMIUM MEATS MAIDEN PLATE (1850 METRES)

Forgiving of 10. Gorgeous Zara's last start on a deteriorating/shifting track at Hawkesbury and her starting price of $1.55 must be respected. She wasn't suited to the race shape, and jockey Brenton Advulla reported she never travelled comfortably in the run. However, her two previous starts were solid in time/sectional merit races and repeating those efforts/figures will make her hard to beat. Additionally, she can bounce back with the blinkers going on and Newcastle suits.

Dangers6. Picko Rocks had to make a long-wide sustained run last start at Canberra and peaked late. He is a consistent type and rock-hard fit. 2.Iberian Ruler got too far back in a slow tempo last start but ran on well and kept wanting to find the line. He has an awkward draw but will excel over more ground. 4. Mindspace comes through the same race and ran evenly. 8. Edgewise ran ok in a high-rating race last start and is a knockout chance.

How to play it: Gorgeous Zara WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 5 - 3:40PM PFD FOODSERVICE BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1850 METRES)

4. Magadan was slowly away last start and didn't handle the tight-turning Gosford track. However, to his credit, once he balanced up in the straight, he hit the line hard to run second and beat the rest easily. He is a nice type, on an upwards ratings spiral since his gelding op and stepping up in distance onto a bigger track is ideal. In addition, he can roll forward with a lack of speed engaged and profiles well for this event. Expect a bold showing.

Dangers1. Mirror Queen was restrained from a wide draw last start in a stronger grade and had too much to do. She ran on ok in the inferior ground and will be more suited over the 1850m here. 11. Media Man wasn't run to suit last start, and he surged to the line late. He is rock-hard and gets back to his home track. 5. By Nine arguably should've won last start and market watch on 7. Flying Witness who failed at Goulburn 13 days ago.

How to play it: Magadan WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 6 - 4:20PM HORSEPOWER CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

6. Regal Inheritance has returned improved this preparation, and she savaged the line to score at Canberra last start running one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the margins throughout confirm the quality. She is on an upwards ratings spiral this campaign, brings the best last-start figure, and all key indicators suggest the rise in trip will be no issue. Additionally, she maps to have all favours and expect a bold showing.

Dangers3. In Love And War broke through for her maiden win in style at Warwick Farm last start. She was blocked for a run losing her momentum at a key stage, but she showed a nice turn of foot and ran away from her rivals. The filly drops back to the provincial circuit and can go on with it now. 1. Sizzler is honest and had no luck after racing wide at a fast tempo last start. He can bounce back and is rock-hard fit. 5. Fleur Du Monde held off late challengers to win on debut and has had a tick-over trial between runs. Add 8. Myeyesadoreyou to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Regal Inheritance Win ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 7 - 4:55PM POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL-MIDWAY CHAMPIONSHIP WILDCARD (1400 M)

2. The Poacher profiles well for this, coming through two high rating races this prep, and gets a much more positive race setup here. First-up at Rosehill, he got too far back in the run but got through his gears well and ran honestly behind subsequent Group 3 winner Parisal. His run had merit last start around the tight-turning Gosford track, where he had to sit four wide throughout, albeit having cover. Moreover, he clocked one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting, and the step up in distance should pose no issue. He receives a significant barrier change allowing him to have a more economical trip, and the big Newcastle track is ideal. Expect a bold showing.

Dangers3. Loch Eagle comes through the same race and started much shorter in the market. He ran an even race but will undoubtedly improve from that performance. The rain-affected ground and home-track factors also suit. 12. New Republic brings a different form line, and he was unlucky last start at this track/distance. He was blocked at a critical stage, but to his credit, he hit the line well once balancing up. 1. Kingsheir wasn't suited to the brutal tempo last start after having 35 days between runs. He can bounce back and is a key late-market watch. 6. Willinga Freefall is on a five-day backup and add 5. Cruel Summer to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: The Poacher WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 8 - 5:35PM COASTLINE POOLS AND SPAS PROVINCIAL C1 HCP (1200 METRES)

5. Keikoku, who represents value, had too much to do first-up at Goulburn after getting too far back in a slowly run race. However, he had made significant ground running on strongly into third and clocked the meeting's fastest final 200m split. Second-up last campaign, he produced his career peak figure that lines up well here and the anticipated genuine tempo suits. Expect him to be rattling home late. Each-way.

Dangers2. Karedada was a dominant winner at this track/distance before spelling last prep and repeating that effort/figure will make him hard to beat. He has trialled well enough and maps to have all favours. 1. Jedibeel was a strong winner on debut at Hawkesbury and can make the step-in grade. No knock just has been well found in the early market. 8. Staness will be fitter and add 12. Jesellix to wider exotics.

How to play it: Keikoku E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.


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