As we head into this critical period, the table is neatly split into four categories:
Title contenders – Arsenal and Manchester City.
European competition contenders – Man Utd, Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool, Brighton, Brentford.
No-man's land – Fulham, Chelsea, Villa.
Relegation scrappers – the rest.
This means that nearly every match has some bearing which is what makes this competition so great.
Biggest news over the break has been on the managerial front. Conte unsurprisingly gone from Spurs, and Viera unfairly dismissed by Palace. Only three of the bottom 11 teams have the same manager they started this campaign with (West Ham, Leicester, Forest). Add to that the movements at Spurs and Brighton and we have a 50% attrition rate in 27 weeks, a stark sign of the times.
Three matches this weekend involve relegation candidates going head-to-head, and they often provide the most passionate and entertaining encounters. Then we have the Brighton/Brentford clash which might be dubbed the 'battle of the over-achievers'. The City/Liverpool encounter, while a mouth-watering prospect, has a different emphasis than in recent seasons. Really looking forward to what unfolds in the next week and a bit.
MANCHESTER CITY v LIVERPOOL: Saturday 1 April 10.30pm.
The Reds are looking to pull off a season double over their fierce rival after their somewhat surprising win at Anfield. However, the odds of it happening are slim with City now firing on all cylinders. Three on the trot in the league and 13 unanswered goals in two games in the FA Cup and Champions League has brought back that air of invincibility we often see at this time of year. Haaland continues to blow the records apart and De Bruyne has reawakened.
Liverpool looked to be back in stride after that thumping of Man Utd, then along came Bournemouth and slammed the breaks on their revival. The big problem Klopp's side has is travelling – they have lost four and drawn one of their last six on the road, scoring just three and conceding ten in that run. It's a tough couple of weeks for the Reds who go to Chelsea next then host Arsenal in an Anfield blockbuster. If they get anything out of this game, it will be a huge bonus.
City has not lost at home to Liverpool since 2015 and must take all three points to maintain the pressure on Arsenal; they should do so.
Prediction: Manchester City win (1.60)
ARSENAL v LEEDS: Sunday 2 April 1.00am.
Since their loss to City, Arsenal has been relentless in its quest for a first league title in 19 years. Six wins from six, netting 19 times along the way, has meant they remain firmly in control of their own destiny. A Man City win in the earlier fixture will mean they must get all three points here to maintain that status. Now back to just about full strength and playing with real swagger, perhaps only Pep's side has the talent to match the Gunners on any given day. Indeed, only their nearest title rivals have managed to lower Arsenal's colours at the Emirates this season.
Leeds, under new management, has shown it is up for the fight to stay in the Premiership next season. Just one loss in their last four, a tight affair against Chelsea, has given them cause for optimism. The away win last time out against Wolves was one of their better efforts of the campaign, but they now go from Listed company to Group One.
Arsenal has won the last four clashes between the sides, including a tough 1-0 victory at Elland Road earlier this season. Anything but three points to the home side will be a major shock.
Prediction: Arsenal win (1.30)
BOURNEMOUTH v FULHAM: Sunday 2 April 1.00am.
A very interesting clash between newly promoted sides whose fortunes have been very different in the top-flight this year.
Bournemouth has copped some heavy blows, in particular a 9-0 fleecing at Anfield and a couple of losses after two-goal leads against quality opposition, but they keep getting up off the canvas. Gary O'Neil has recruited well, and his side are rarely uncompetitive these days. Recent efforts at home include a draw with Newcastle and a win over Liverpool.
Fulham, after looking big chances of qualifying for European football a month ago, have hit the skids a little, picking up just one point in the last three games. They were thoroughly outclassed by Arsenal in their last game three weeks ago but did fight back in the second half. The long break probably came at just the right time, and they get the invaluable Palhinha back.
These sides played out two draws in the Championship last season, and a see-sawing 2-2 at Craven Cottage in October. Fulham are pretty good travellers and surprisingly second favourites in this one – they look good value.
Prediction: Fulham win (2.80)
BRIGHTON v BRENTFORD: Sunday 2 April 1.00am.
Along with Arsenal, these two sides are the success stories of the season. The clash of the silky smooth Seagulls and the clinical Bees this weekend is eagerly awaited, and might go a long way to sorting out the top-six contenders. Although equal on points, Brighton has two games in hand, so a win or even a draw here will give them a big advantage over Brentford heading into the final quarter of the season.
The recent records of these teams is remarkably similar. In calendar year 2023, Brighton's record is nine played, five wins, three draws, one loss. For Brentford, it is 10 played, five wins, four draws, one loss. When they clashed in October, Brentford got the cash 2-0, with a brace to their talisman striker Ivan Toney. It came on the back of a couple of poor results and, bar an awful 15 minutes at Villa, Thomas Frank's side has been close to invincible since.
I've said many times how much I love watching Brighton – as a long-suffering Hammers fan I wish we were coached to play their style of football. But Brentford has the happy knack of upsetting quality opposition as Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd and Man City have all experienced this campaign. Brighton is warm favourite, so it gives punters a nice opportunity to snap up a massive price.
Prediction: Brentford win (5.50)
CRYSTAL PALACE v LEICESTER: Sunday 2 April 1.00am.
Palace has not won since New Year's Eve, but every match in that run of 12 has been against sides in the top 11 so the sacking of Patrick Viera on the strength of those results is harsh. As highlighted in this column a fortnight ago, Palace has the softest run home of any team in the relegation battle. The 75-year-old Roy Hodgson walks into the managerial role again at just the right time.
Before their 4-1 loss to Arsenal a couple of weeks back, the Eagles had conceded just nine goals in the previous ten matches. Clearly, it is scoring that is the problem. The talent is there, headed by Zaha, so maybe the return of the club legend will spark something.
Leicester has had an awful run of results, but did grab a vital point at Brentford last time out. James Maddison's outstanding form on the international stage is needed back home for the Foxes to pull out of this slump.
Meetings between these sides in the last four seasons has been a bit lop-sided, with Leicester winning four of the seven encounters and the other three being draws. However, there might be a bit of the 'manager-bounce' on show at Selhurst this weekend and the home side can get their campaign back on the rails.
Prediction: Crystal Palace win (2.50)
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v WOLVES: Sunday 2 April 1.00am.
Another important relegation match between a couple of sides just out of the drop zone.
Forest hasn't won a game since they luckily knocked over Leeds on 5 February, but did manage that unlikely draw against Man City at home. They gave Newcastle a run for their money at the City Ground at the latest outing but were denied a return from the game by a stoppage time penalty. It is their longest run without a win since the dark days at the start of the season, and to be fair their form hasn't warranted anything more;.
Wolves are becoming one of the tougher sides in the league to pick. Just take their last four home games: defeated Liverpool 3-0, lost to Bournemouth, defeated Spurs 1-0, lost to Leeds. Away from home they have won just twice this campaign, both times against fellow strugglers. Under Lopetegui they look far more likely to score goals and have improved their ladder position, but danger still lurks.
Wolves won the reverse fixture 1-0 at Molineux thanks to a second-half penalty. Nothing in the form of either side fosters any great confidence when trying to pick the outcome. I think if both coaches were offered a draw pre-match, they'd take it – that's how we'll go.
Prediction: Draw (3.00)
CHELSEA v ASTON VILLA: Sunday 2 April 2.30am.
Chelsea's recovery looked to be gaining momentum until they allowed a usually toothless Everton to score twice in the final 25 minutes and force a draw at Stamford Bridge a fortnight ago. They give the impression of being a shiny blue sports car stuck in second-gear. Squad stability may be the problem, as Potter does love to change things up as he did at Brighton. Felix has settled in well to the pace of the Premier League and his on-going good form is key to the Blues climbing the table.
Villa has pulled through a February slump and picked up ten points from their last four games. There is plenty of attacking talent in the squad with the likes of Buendia, Watkins, Ramsey and Bailey. A push for European spots is probably out of reach this season, but with a full year under Emery in 23/24 they are a big club capable of better things. Their form against quality opposition has been mixed – success on the road at Brighton and Tottenham since the change of gaffer shows they are capable of unhinging classy opposition.
However, the recent form of Villa at Chelsea is dismal, with six losses and a draw from their last seven visits to west London. The home side should have a little too much class and pull clear of the visitors; both are on 38 points leading into this clash.
Prediction: Chelsea win (1.70)
WEST HAM v SOUTHAMPTON: Sunday 2 April 11.00pm.
The meeting of 18th in 20th in what is potentially do-or-die for both sides. Should West Ham be beaten, Moyes is surely sent packing as the Hammers will be rock-bottom. If Southampton lose, they will be further adrift of safety, and they have played more games than the teams directly above them. A draw doesn't help either team terribly much but would certainly be more palatable for the visitors.
Before the break, the Hammers had enough chances to get maximum points at home to Villa but settled for a draw. It was a big improvement on the disaster at Brighton the week before, but the on-going problem of poor creativity and impotency in the final third was again evident. Rice was masterful in the England jersey against Italy after some modest efforts in the claret and blue by his standards … I don't think captaincy sits well with him.
Southampton is on the ropes but keep swinging and land the occasional blow. Scoring twice in the last 13 minutes to peg back Spurs at their most recent match showed a commitment to the cause. Ward-Prowse, Adams and Alcaraz are all capable of testing the best defences and, knowing how brittle the Hammers can be, they may cause some problems.
West Ham had won four in a row at home against Southampton, and scored three on each occasion, until toppled 3-2 at the London Stadium last season. The sides shared the points at St Marys in October. This will be closer than the market predicts but I think (hope) the Hammers fall over the line; however, I wouldn't back them at 1.75 with counterfeit money.
Prediction: West Ham win (1.75)
NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER UNITED: Monday 3 April 1.30am.
This is probably the most appealing match of the round, not just because it is 5th v 3rd but because the atmosphere at a packed St James will be something else.
A win will drag the Magpies level with Man U and continue the resurgence that has been inspired by the outstanding form of Swedish striker Alexander Isak. Despite going without a win for two months until their win at home on 12 March, it is easy to forget that Eddie Howe's men have lost just three times this season; indeed, only two sides have been able to conquer them. The 2-0 loss at home to Liverpool, their only defeat on Tyneside this campaign, was a low point but even that day, with ten men, they rallied and were still in the game in the second-half.
Manchester United's slim title hopes were left in shreds at Anfield on 5 March, a 45-minute, seven-goal horror show. The hangover was a 0-0 draw at home to cellar-dwellers Southampton. The Red Devils have won six on the road this season, but only one against a side outside the relegation contenders. Away from home against sides in the top half the record reads: played seven, won one, lost five, drawn one, scored nine, conceded 25.
A very hard one to pick as there should be some response from Ten Hag's side. The last two meetings have been draws, we'll go for another.
Prediction: Draw (3.30)
EVERTON v TOTTENHAM: Tuesday 4 April 5.00am.
The Everton revival under Sean Dyche mightn't be the prettiest thing to watch but it is effective as the Toffees have picked up 11 points in eight games since his arrival. If they manage another 11 in the next eight matches, they are just about safe.
Their grand old stadium is about to be ditched for a younger, prettier version but it is still the key to their survival, with all but one of their wins this campaign coming at home. Recent victories over Arsenal and Brentford are outstanding results.
The Conte departure is probably a good thing for Spurs. What they didn't learn from hiring Mourinho came back to roost when they took on his Italian version. Fans weren't happy with the negative style which culminated in a meek departure from Champions League football at home to Milan. Form on the domestic scene has been mixed. It is safe to say without Harry Kane they are a mid-table outfit at best. Everton has some experienced campaigners in the centre of defence and their number one job will be to keep the big England #9 quiet.
The glaring stat to come out of this match-up is the dominance Spurs has enjoyed for many seasons. It is more apparent when they play at home, but even on the road the Toffees find Spurs impossible to crack. The last nine encounters at Goodison have seen three wins to Tottenham and six draws. That weight of history, and a caretaker in charge who enjoyed great success when Conte was sick a little while back, leads us to a narrow win for the visitors.
Prediction: Tottenham win (2.20)
