Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1450m):
We start with a testing and moderate maiden at set weights on a surface that is gradually drying out & may even get close to a Good 4. Like tough Tamworth filly 10. Arrabbiata who shapes well at her fifth start, and coming through superior formlines. Has been under two lengths from the winner all prep, and has enough tactical speed early to off-set the outside barrier.
Dangers: Improving mare 14. Walkin'onwater comes through that same race as the top selection. Draws to get a nice trail, and down in weight after the claim. Expecting further improvement from 1. Backlash fourth-up with a much needed 3kg claim. Emerging three-year-old 9. The Real Prince at very big odds can peak at his third start; while included in wider exotic plays 3. Conversations deep into the prep, with winkers being added; 11. Cashmere Inn hard fit from a soft draw; and 12. Perspetina getting back on firmer footing.
How to play it: Arrabbiata to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):
Back to the shorter course stacks up nicely for provincial filly 1. She's A Bad Girl third-up. Has shown speed and boxed on okay in two runs against deeper opposition this prep, and over a 100m shorter with winkers added is the ticket to break through.
Dangers: Watch the betting big time on Scone filly 7. Insightful Award who dropped on debut at home as a well fancied $2.40 favorite, but had won previous two trials, and has more than enough ability. Provincial-based three-year-old 2. Sir Tom is hard fit, and also comes via slightly better races; while keeping safe at much bigger odds 3. Tiny Emperor after missing by a whisker on debut, and draws to get a good run.
How to play it: She's A Bad Girl to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 3 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):
Not much between several of these over the mile. Settled on tough five-year-old 4. Cheeky Nugget who only has an ordinary strike rate, but comes off a strong finishing win in similar company through heavy ground. Up in weight, but draws to get a cosy run with cover around midfield, and will be strong late.
Dangers: Provincial-based 5. Pippen mixes his form, but won a similar race at this track two starts back; while 9. Badboy McCoy is also a value chance from a handy draw, and carries a half kilo less coming through a deeper race. Honest mare 2. Enthralled back slightly in class with a 3kg claim; and 7. Order Of Merit who has been okay this prep in slightly deeper races, and a stronger jockey goes on; both go in trifecta and first four bets.
How to play it: Cheeky Nugget to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):
Plenty of chances in this very open battle too headed by lightly raced provincial three-year-old 2. Capitamy at the value who comes back to the right distance third-up. Gets a nice weight drop too after a 3kg claim, and key gear changes have been made.
Dangers: Wyong mare 7. Alegna has been freshened up, and is ready to win having beaten all bar the winner in two of his last three against better opposition, but will need some early luck drawn off the track. The money will tell a story around ex-Qld mare 9. Hot Sauce resuming with multiple gear changes off two quiet trials in her first run for the new Muswellbrook stable, but also drew wide. Expecting a much better run from 10. Atacama back in this company fourth-up, and in well at the weights carrying 2kg less; while improving three-year-old 5. Utopian Spirit is the best of the rest at big odds.
How to play it: Capitamy each way and box exacta 2,7,9
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m):
Potentially an even more open sprint here. Settled on underrated and tough mare 5. Shooting Zaa who has been working home okay in races with a little more quality, inducing finishing just over two lengths from the winner in the John Clift at Tamworth. Looking for the extra furlong now. Was scratched from Mudgee on Sunday to be saved for this.
Dangers: They could be queuing up headed by tough veteran 7. The Lion who is bursting to win another race having placed in four of his last five in and around this grade. Include 3. Sparks who is also well into the prep, and draws to get a nice trail just off the speed. Improving 1. All Business fifth-up and dropping down from a Midway CL1; honest mare 4. Myeyesadoreyou who draws well coming back a long way in trip off a four week break; and 6. Oodles resuming from the inside draw with a 2kg claim; are all capable of running into the money.
How to play it: Shooting Zaa to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m):
It doesn't get much easier here, although keen on progressive provincial five-year-old 1. Defiant Heart who looks very well placed under a 2kg claim to make it three wins from four this prep. Loved the way he motored home from midfield to win a similar race at Scone three weeks ago, and can park even closer here from a better draw.
Dangers: Talented three-year-old 8. Acotango must be a threat from a softer gate coming back from Saturday Highway company where he hit the line late. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Impact Star who shapes well over the odds from this draw third-up with blinkers off after two fair efforts in provincial Midway company; while 4. Zoom Outcome second-up; and 5. Transformation also back from Highway grade; go into the exotics.
How to play it: Defiant Heart to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):
We stay at the short course for the closer, and it shapes well for tough and consistent mare 3. Chiky Chiky Mama who can finally snap a run of four consecutive third placings, with blinkers going on. Likes to roll forward, and was only beaten under a length in the John Clift at Tamworth which is superior form for this.
Dangers: If improving mare 4. Totally Discreet gets over from a tricky barrier, she'll be right in the finish second-up coming through that same race as the top selection. From a good trailing gate, keep safe 2. Lanks who is far better served here than in Saturday Highway grade; while 6. Boss Shelby can run into the minor money at big odds deep into his prep.
How to play it: Chiky Chiky Mama to win
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R6 1. DEFIANT HEART
R7 3. CHIKY CHIKY MAMA
BEST VALUE:
R4 2. CAPITAMY
