Starting with the easier race which does look to be the Group 1 Queensland Derby over 2400 metres where Kovalica, who has been a long-time favourite for this race, has done nothing to harm his chances and in fact has enhanced them.
He drifted out from $1.90 or so to around the $2.80 mark when he missed a run in the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate over 2200 metres but has come back in following an excellent run last week in the Group 1 Doomben Cup over 2000 metres.
He already had a slight ratings edge and seemingly plenty more to offer, but he's now got a substantial ratings edge having run to a new peak of 116 when third behind Huetor at weight-for-age.
That leaves him nine pounds clear of his nearest rival, stable mate and shock winner of the Rough Habit, Special Swey, and 10 pounds clear of Promises Kept through the Group 1 South Australian Derby.
He's arguably got more upside than either of those, draws ideally, had the perfect platform run for a seven-day backup and isn't shorter than what he was before his Doomben Cup third. He deserves to be in the red.
Nothing deserves to be in the red in the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup with Think About It heading the market at $4 in a full field.
Rated 113 by Timeform off his big first up win at Gosford, he'll need to improve again to be winning but profiles to do so. The five-year winning average of the race is 118.8 although the past two winners, Vega One and Apache Chase, have run to just 116 and 117.
That's around the level Rothfire can consistently run but is unlikely to improve upon, while Paulele has a couple of peaks at 121 but had his chance behind Rothfire in the Group 2 Victory Stakes over 1200 metres last time out.
The two that come through the best form are A Case Of You and Vilana, who ran fifth and seventh respectively in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 over 1200 metres behind Giga Kick last start.
A Case Of You ran to 119 in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes over 1200 metres behind Imperatriz first up and has been a sectional mark up at his past two. Drawn better and up to 1300 metres here, I think he can sit closer and run very well.
Vilana ran to 117 first up and his peak of 119 came over 1300 metres in The Hunter. He looks primed for this with J-Mac taking over and both can figure at bigger prices.
