Of all the Derbies worldwide, and a quick look at the R&S database has that number pegged at around 45 (but there are probably more), only the English Derby could lay claim to having a better honour roll.
In recent years, I'd argue the Japanese Derby has matched the English Derby in terms of ratings and winners, with the likes of Deep Impact, Orfevre, Duramente and Contrail winning the race.
All four of those won the Group 1 Satsuki Sho (2000m) the start prior and all of them ran equal or higher to Sunday's favourite, Sol Oriens, however Sol Oriens became the first horse to win the guineas at just his third ever start.
Deep Impact was rated 121 after three starts, then 130 & 131 in the guineas and derby. Orfevre was rated just 102 after three starts, not winning the guineas until start seven. Contrail (117) and Duramente (111) were also well behind Sol Oriens at such a young stage of their career.
Sol Oriens had promised to be pretty special with a soft win at start number two in the Group 3 Keisei Hai (2000m) and was enormous in his guineas win, drawing barrier one and forced to spear very wide around the turn to get away from the chopped up rail, rattling home to score by 1.3 lengths from 17th on the turn.
It seems as if the further the son of Kitasan Black goes the better he'll be and 2400m at Tokyo should suit him down to the ground. The way he picked them up there was the style of a serious horse and drawn a good barrier here, having shown tactical speed in his first two runs, he should be able to take a spot midfield.
He'd need a big reverse of form for something out of the guineas to beat him. Tastiera had his chance there but gives himself every chance riding near the speed with Damian Lane onboard for the first time.
Phantom Thief started favourite in the Satsuki Sho (although I thought Sol Oriens deserved to) and was solid in 3rd, beaten 3 lengths. I didn't think his late two-year-old form and the form out of his first up run was much good and I think that's about as good as he goes.
Another son of Kitasan Black is expected to start second pick, bringing different form into the race. He's won his past two starts, both at the Derby track and distance, so he does have that going for him.
He typically gets back in the field so it'll be interesting to see where how far forward Lemaire can get him from barrier two. It was a good win last time out but he only just got the better of Hearts Concerto late and that horse brought the shaky Hopeful Stakes and Hai Nisai Stakes form as a two-year-old.
Japanese markets have Sol Oriens predicted to start a $3 favourite and that is what he's been all-in with some Australian books for a while. I think that's a great price. He'll eat up 2400m and has more upside than anything in the field while also having won the main lead up in a big way. I'd be happy to bet him down to $2.20.
Liberty Island stole the show last week but Sol Oriens is already rated just a pound below her and had had half the starts she has. Tipping he gets the job done and sets up the potential for mouth-watering clash with Equinox later this year.
