Half the races at Rosehill are Group 1's, one is amazingly a Midway, a few Group 3's and a listed race all add up to a huge day and I think the features provide some of the better betting opportunities.
Often, and especially earlier in the week, the Group 1's would appear to shoot very straight, and while I think that's true in the George Ryder, made easier by Anamoe taking up 66% of the market, I think there are serious discrepancies in some of the others.
Starting with the Rosehill Guineas- Pericles has come up a $2.60 favourite and looks poisonous odds to my eye. He beat a weak field in the Autumn Classic with every favour and his rating of 109, an equal peak, he'd need to improve a fair bit here.
Elliptical actually ran a better figure (110) last start despite running seventh, and his past two runs at 2000m have returned ratings of 116 when beaten a nose in the Spring Champion and 114 when midfield in the Champions Stakes.
He looks primed getting to 2000m third up and I have him favourite. The other horse who makes appeal is Matcha Latte, who is another crying out for 2000m now. His return in the Hobartville was excellent running to 114 and whilst a touch flat in the Randwick Guineas, his Spring Champion run when three wide the trip was enormous.
Lindermann has to be a strong hope having stuck on gamely over a mile but the other two are proven at 2000m. Happy to stick strong with the proven Group 1 form here and be strongly against Pericles.
Also over 2000m is the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes and it's another fascinating race with plenty of angles. Gold Trip is into favourite off the back of a slashing first up run at Sandown from back off a hot tempo, but this race may not suit him as much.
I can't see them breaking any records here with Hinged and Mo'unga the speed influences and it may not suit Gold Trip who would prefer a stiffer test.
Montefilia is the one that has come up overs in my market off perhaps a hidden run first up in the Chipping Norton. I haven't seen anyone talk about it but take out Anamoe and she's easily the run of the race for mine. Her sectionals home were the race-fastest, bettering Anamoe in every split and her 115+ rating is easily her best fresh run.
She won this race last year running to 122+ beating Verry Elleegant in a very high rating performance and has the turn of foot to get over the top of them at as much as $10 in some markets.
Anamoe, while probably a touch short at $1.60 can just hold his form to win again in the George Ryder, although Artorius does create plenty of interest getting to 1500m drawn the inside.
Later in the day we have the Golden Slipper for the two-year-olds. Feel free to read my full thoughts on the race here, but to summarise I have Steel City on top at 17-1, and finally we have The Galaxy as the final Group 1.
On our weight adjusted ratings Remarque comes out clearly on top, finishing 1.5 lengths behind Eduardo in the Challenge Stakes and now dropping 7kg. He looks as good a chance as any, along with Asfoora who meets Uncommon James 2.5kg better from the Oakleigh Plate where he had the better run off the pace.
She has the run under her belt now and her figure of 110 with Timeform there is six pounds off her best of 116, which if she's able to run here at the weights would go very close.
Big edition of the Sydney Specials but it's a day worthy of a good rambling- best of luck.
SYDNEY SPECIALS
Bet of the day: Race 4- #2 Ellipitcal @ $4.4 and #4 Matcha Latte @ $9
Each-way play: Race 6- #7 Montefilia @ $10/2.7
Golden Slipper: #15 Steel City @ $18/5
