No less than eleven horses having their first run in Australia have accepted to run at Rosehill on Saturday, with New Zealand holding the favourite in both the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) and the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) for three-year-olds.
The card is also represented by the UK, Ireland, France and America which makes for spirited betting races across the day. There are no odds-on favourites, and the shortest pick on the day (Prowess) has Pavitra as a $3.40 danger.
With that in mind, there should be plenty of value to be found with the right horses and I think one of those races presents itself in the fifth.
A whopping $7.50 the field for the Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m) and while there are plenty of chances, I thought Waihaha Falls would be the early favourite. He had a boom on him last time in but didn't manage a win, however did come home strongly first up at weight-for-age for fourth last time in.
He was 0.1 lengths off Weona Smartone there, started 1/3 of his price and now meets him 4.5kg better. He also has strong SP's over the narrow favourite Coal Crusher, who stuck on well first up but likely cops plenty of pressure for the lead again here and his record when leading reads much better than when he can't find the top.
The other one in that race that can run better that his odds suggest is Flying Crazy, who actually tops our weight-adjusted last start ratings, meeting Bacchanalia 4.5kg better at the weights. He'll be back but should get the tempo to suit and find the line well at 40-1.
My best of the day, again with one at a price, is in the Group 3 Racing & Sports Doncaster Prelude (1500m). Check the sponsor out, I've heard good things.
Bandersnatch comes up as an 8-1 chance and that looks too big. He stuck on very nicely first up behind Think About It and Gravina, returning a Timeform rating of 113 and should've at least run to that number second up, not really seeing clear air until the last 100m in the Ajax.
Brenton Avdulla goes on and from a decent barrier I think he can get into a good spot off the pace. Beating him home second up was the flashy Waterford, but drawn the carpark, he's going to be giving them a huge start in a race without heaps of pace.
Cross Talk is the favourite with a nice profile but had every favour at Newcastle, rating down on his first up peak of 111. He'll give a big sight and is an understandable favourite, but Bandersnatch rates as the value.
SYDNEY SPECIALS
Bet of the day: Race 5 #10 Waihaha Falls @ $8.5 (& #12 Flying Crazy at $41)
Also backing: Race 9 #4 Bandersnatch @ $9/3.2
