The top-level action doesn't stop in Japan this time of year with the Group 1 Champions Cup (1800m) on the Chukyo dirt track.
One of just two JRA Group 1 races on the dirt, the other being the February Stakes, it will come as no shock that the honour roll may not be the usual Japanese stars we're used to seeing, but some very good horses have won the race nonetheless.
We'll start with T O Keynes, who will start a short-priced favourite having won the race last year. He ran to 120 with Timeform on that occasion and that figure has all but guaranteed a win in this race.
Every winner in the past 10 years has fallen in that 115-120 bracket, including back when the race was run as the Japan Cup Dirt, but outside of T O Keynes this year looks very thin.
T O Keynes tuned up for his title defence with a comfortable win at Morioka in the Listed JBC Classic (2000m) at Morioka, running to 114 there in a 2.5 length win which is good enough to win this year's edition.
He easily accounted for second favourite Crown Pride, who is lightly raced and has scope to improve, but even still, T O Keynes can go some 3 lengths better than he did at Morioka. Crown Pride led the field up at Morioka and stuck on well for second, his peak coming when a strong winner of the Group 2 UAE Derby (1900m) at Meydan, running to 112 there.
Gloria Mundi is also on the second line of betting but is more exposed with 14 starts under his belt. A peak of 110 in the Nagoyajo Stakes in March this year just isn't good enough to win. Forgive his last start in the Group 1 Takurazaka Kinen (2200m) on turf behind Titleholder but he'd need to go to a new level.
The three-year-olds might be the only possible way of getting the favourite beaten.
Notturno won the Listed Japan Dirt Derby (2000m) at Ohi in July, running to 111 with Timeform on that occasion. That isn't good enough to win here and he was very poor against the likes of Crown Pride at Funabashi latest and the stable seem to think he's better on wet ground which he won't find here.
Hapi ran fourth in the Dirt Derby which was run on muddy ground but bounced out of that nicely and ran a new peak of 113 when third in the Group 3 The Leopard Stakes (1800m) at Niigata. He's been beaten 0.8 lengths in two runs since behind Jun Light Bolt and Sunrise Hope but has only had seven starts and is trending the right way.
Jun Light Bolt equalled his peak of 110 last start but with 24 starts under the belt I can't see him making the leap, nor Sunrise Hope who was a shock 90-1 winner in a low rating race last start.
T O Keynes basically just has to turn up to be winning this. His last start win was dominant and the figure he ran wins this edition more than 50% of the time. The scary thing is, he's got another 3 lengths up his sleeve.
He's a genuine $1.40-1.50 against this lot and should be winning comfortably. Crown Pride is the obvious danger again but I think Hapi is the horse at 20-1 that can run a place and add some value to exotics. He's trending the right way and is he runs up to his best he's a genuine chance of running second which should be a handy exacta payout.
GROUP 1 CHAMPIONS CUP
Tip: #12 T O Keynes
Value: #3 Hapi
