They say that change is the law of life but to many punters, rain over the Sydney Autumn carnival may transcend even that as La Nina just rolls over slightly, not quite waking from her brief respite.

A soft 7 track and up to 15mm on Friday should have us on a genuinely rain affected track and making ground could be tricky. I found the day tricky with a few fancied horses likely to get back and give themselves a much harder task than necessary.

If Star Sparks had had a run (and run well) I'd be much keener in Race 8 but I'll take the gamble Gai has him ready to go with two solid trials including one over 1175m. He's built a strong record of 5 from 8 and although the misses have been by a lot, the wins have shown plenty.

Estadio Mestalla is the obvious favourite having won 3/4 but he showed at this track and distance two back (as an evens favourite) that he's not bombproof and poor tactics can bring him undone.

Whether Nash tries to send him forward will be the key but I'd think he goes back and Star Sparks finds a fairly comfortable lead if he wants it. His peak rating before a spell came on a soft 7 so conditions should be fine.

Trying to solve the Waller puzzle in a 2000m listed race is near on impossible but I'll try to attempt it as I think Aleas is the one who sets up perfectly to win, and any rain around is a bonus.

There will be strong tempo assured with 4-5 genuine on pacers and Aleas drawn 1 should just get a soft trail midfield, with Clipperton just needing to be proactive in finding gaps as they appear.

He closed off well out to 2000m last start and has had a lovely tick over trial since- with blinkers on which he wears for the first time here. If he holds his 106 rating from last start he's right in the finish and I think he gets the right scenario to do so.

SYDNEY SPECIALS

Bet of the day: Race 8 #1 Star Sparks @ $6

Also backing: Race 7 #5 Aleas @ $7