Competition creates spectacles, and opinions create markets. When strong opinions about strong competition arise, we get a hell of clash.
To bill the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes II (2000m) as a two-horse race would perhaps be buying into the theatre with the likes of Cascadian in career best form and Unicorn Lion, the bold front-running Japanese horse. Nevertheless, this race is all about Anamoe and Dubai Honour and it feels like a race Australia needs to win.
Bested on three of four occasions by Addeybb, including in both grand finals, Verry Elleegant passes the baton to Anamoe, who will need to be at his absolute best to repel the Haggas challenge.
Anamoe at his best is rated 126 with Timeform and has run to it twice, but remarkably, since this race last year, he has only dropped below 120 once, his failure a dismal 117 when beaten 2 lengths at Flemington.
Dubai Honour, on the other hand, ran to 125+ in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes (2000m), effectively matching Anamoe's best, but in the same number of runs (8), he's run to 120 or above just twice, and never above 123.
I expect Anamoe to run right up to his best on Saturday, getting to 2000m fourth up and give him the edge given his bulk of ratings.
If you do want something for exotics, Alenquer at 50-1 was rated identically to Dubai Honour (123) before coming here. Awful in the All-Star Mile, soft ground and 2000m is certainly a better scenario. Funnily enough he used to be with Haggas and ridden by Marquand. How about the irony if he knocked off Dubai Honour.
Anamoe, while I will likely be backing, doesn't feature in the best bets. Randwick to me seemed fairly cut and dry- no unreasonable favourites, nothing at a big price looking far too long and so it is up to a couple of market leaders to justify their prices.
The first of those if Aft Cabin in the Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint (1200m). A dominant winner first up at the track and distance, he ran to his best of 116 there and did it with ease, putting 1.7 lengths on Zou Tiger and it could've been a bit more.
A tough run in the Hobartville over 1400m, he simply didn't run a mile in the Guineas, running the race fastest last 800, 600 and 400m before levelling out late.
Freshened, with a near perfect trial since and back to 1200m with his main danger scratched, I think he deserves to be in the red and should be winning.
The other favourite that looks justified is in the Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) with Cleveland profiling beautifully for this.
He was the fastest last 200m of the Tancred at weight-for-age after ducking back to the inside, earning a + at the end of his 113 rating for a sectional mark up. Interestingly his peak rating is only 115 but he's only had nine starts and only six have been over 2000m so I'd think he's capable of bettering that peak on Saturday.
He drops 8kg down to 51kg, will relish every bit of a testing two miles and wet ground should be no issue.
The other Joseph O'Brien trained horse, Baron Samedi, isn't to be discounted either. At his peak he's rated 119, over two miles on wet ground. He's perhaps not as well in at the weights compared to his stablemate but he's not poorly in with 55kg and he is an absolute swimmer. I'd suspect he's going forward from the wide draw and turning this into a strong test which will suit both he and Cleveland.
SYDNEY SPECIALS
Bet of the day: Race 5- #1 Aft Cabin @ $2
Also backing: Race 7 #11 Cleveland @ $4 and #3 Baron Samedi @ $14
