Always a competitive carnival and this year is no exception. Plenty of races with each-way priced favourites and with the shorter ones looking a bit shaky, but with nothing really jumping off the page as value to beat them, our best bets come up at longer prices.
I think the best betting race is Race 6, a benchmark 78 over 1700m and a couple of horses make appeal due to the likely position in running of the favourites. Both Estadio Mestalla and Floating draw wide and are likely going to settle in the back quarter of the field.
The one that looks value to me is So United, who is all but assured to sit in the first pair for G Waterhouse & A Bott. He was awful first up but bounced back quickly, only claimed late second up at Canterbury and running to 94 with Timeform.
Up in grade slightly here but comes out quite well under our weight adjusted ratings and should have a big advantage from the map, likely finding an uncontested lead. At $15/4.60 I think he'll give a sight.
The other in that race worth backing is Unspoken. He's had two runs in Australia for ratings of 98 and 95 which measure up quite well against the two favourites, and he had no luck last start in a good Bm78 behind Pretty Amazing and Hometruths. Tipping he's an 100 horse and Sam Clipperton should be able to get him into a decent spot midfield.
The other race I'll be backing a couple in is Race 4. Altivo should come out given Jye Mcneil is booked at $1.90 in Melbourne but even with ~15c deductions, I think both Shipshape and Huesca present as some value.
Shipshape has won his past two and rated highly for a maiden and Bm64 win, running to 91+ and 96, far too good as favourite at Newcastle last start. He doesn't have to lead again but should be somewhere thereabouts and looks well placed to record another win.
Huesca has been costly this time in, rolled at an average price of $3.20 but he's been solid in all of them and I think his best run came on drier ground when wide the trip and just overrun late. Now we're getting double figures, down in grade and with a Hungry Hippo on board.
SYDNEY SPECIALS
Bet of the day: Race 6 #11 So United @ $15 & #8 Unspoken @ 7.5
Also backing: Race 4 #12 Shipshape @ $9 & #3 Huesca @ $10
