2023 AFL Round 7 Preview – ST KILDA v PORT ADELAIDE

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2023 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.


ST KILDA v PORT ADELAIDE

Friday 28 April @ Marvel Stadium

Two last start winners kick off the next round of the AFL in what normally wouldn't be a hugely sought after clash but who knows in 2023.

And with both entrenched in the Eight, it could mean a forerunner of bigger matches to come.

I suspect the football world is both admiring and somewhat perplexed at the speed of the St Kilda turn around.

Hard to be critical of the Saints at all
Hard to be critical of the Saints at all Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

There is one obvious reason but the flow on effects are real and repeatable.

Ross Lyon has clearly put excellent systems in place because they aren't fielding their best side. Max King still hasn't hit the field and yet they have lost one game and it was by 6 points.

The fact Sinclair and Hill have been joined by Wood, Ross and Clark shows the depth of their work-rate and run off half back. That had to be done with the lack of forward strength.

Tackling has been a mantra for the hard working mids and the smaller forwards locking it in.

That will certainly need to be done if they are to hold Port Adelaide off. They are a good side and seemingly finding their true mojo. Since that somewhat fortunate win at the SCG, they've had a couple of solid victories.

Still not at their best, you can see how the midfield has been transformed with the new guard taking over. Rozee, Butters et al have superseded Boak and Wines with a backline handing them support.

They will have to do that more with Jonas suspended. But they have a structure which could well trouble the Saints.

Port's midfield is transferring
Port's midfield is transferring Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images

To emphasis this, St Kilda has had all sorts of dramas with Port down the years. From 34 played, they've won just 11 of those. The most critical loss of all was the Prelim loss in 2004 but even recently, the record from their last 12 games is ONE solitary victory.

Those trends can be hard to avoid as some teams simply match up better albeit the Saints have not been great for a while too.

Confidence is a great thing for a side on the rise. Playing at home will help but also consider the Power has won their last 7 games at the Docklands. Not bad for a non-Victorian side.

For that reason, Port looks great value. At the very worst the start is appealing.

Match Selection: Port Adelaide by 11 points

Suggested Bets: Port Adelaide +12.5 @ $1.90

Suggested Bets: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.20


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