Won by some very good horses in the last few years, the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes is the boys' turn to shine and while the fillies' five year winning average was ~111 (which Liberty Island equalled last week), the boys have been even more impressive.
Last year Do Deuce ran to 115 beating recent Group 1 winner Serifos before winning the Tokyo Yushun. Salios won it in 2020 with a whopping 120 mark yet hasn't managed to win another Group 1. Admire Mars (117) would go on to win a Hong Kong Mile over Beauty Generation in 2019 and Danon Premium (118+) would win another three Group 2 races before placing in the Queen Elizabeth at Randwick.
This year, Danon Touchdown looks set to jump the favourite coming through a strong historical lead-up, the Group 2 Daily Hai Nisai Stakes. Serifos (111) and Admire Mars (109) have both done the double in recent years.
Danon Touchdown ran to the same mark as Admire Mars of 109 at his second race start there and to the eye clearly looked the run of the race, having plenty to do at the top of the straight but closing off very strongly for second, beaten 0.5L by All Parfait who led all the way.
He'd want to land a little bit closer this time but he looks plenty talented and with the right run looks a big chance.
No knock on All Parfait, who started $5.90 there (Danon Touchdown $3.5) who did win dominantly at Nakayama prior, but he's likely to cop a fair bit more pressure in the Group 1 with a few coming through the Tokyo lead up likely to race on the speed.
I think that's the premier lead up, with the Saudi Arabia Royal Cup perhaps the next best, won by Dolce More. A son of Rulership, he ran to 108 there and was able to sit on a good tempo and kick away to win comfortably.
Salios and Danon Premium both used that race as a lead up to success, as did Brave Smash, who Australian fans will know won a different Futurity Stakes at Caulfield, as well as a Manikato.
Danon Premium ran to 108 in the lead up but exploded in the Group 1 and Dolce More can similarly race on the speed or take a sit.
Obamburumai ran to 107 at Tokyo winning the Keio Hai Nisai Stakes but I think that form looks a bit shaky. Not often the best lead-up for this race, Obamburumai started 50-1, with From Dusk (2nd @ $56) and Speed Of Light (3rd @ $16) filling the trifecta in a busy finish. I'm happy to ignore that form line.
Labeling is probably the only other serious chance, bringing completely left of field form. A son of Frankel, he came from back in the field off a slow tempo and ripped home in 33.1 seconds for his last 600m on debut in a newcomer race at Tokyo.
His rating of 93 with Timeform doesn't measure up to the likes of Danon Touchdown's debut win but if the market ignores him (currently $8) and we get double figures he may be the one worth keeping safe.
All that said, I think Danon Touchdown is a rightful favourite. His run last start was enormous and with a genuine tempo up front all but assured he'll be very hard to hold out late. A half-brother to star two-year-old Danon The Kid, I think the market has him right at around the $2.50 mark.
GROUP 1 ASAHI HAI FUTURITY STAKES
Tip: Danon Touchdown
