The big league still can't coax a big name out of hiding for a Stateside hit out so I'll be turning my sights to Africa this week, as a decent quality field lines up in Sun City, South Africa for the modernised version of one of golf's first big money invitationals.

The Nedbank Golf Challenge put South African golf on the map in 1981 when it offered an enormous for the time $500,000 cheque to the winning player. Beginning as an elite 5-man showcase, it's seen a number of format changes over the years and is now a 66-man field, with the winner pocketing a modest $1m.

Last year's post-COVID revival saw Tommy Fleetwood pick up where he left off in 2019 as he bested one of the weaker fields in recent memory. He lines up again this week for a shot at a three-peat but will face much sterner opposition, as a number of PGA stalwarts have made the trip south.

Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Aaron Rai and Adrian Meronk join Fleetwood in tackling one of the longest walks in golf. The Gary Player Country Club track stretches 7,834 yards however plays a fair bit shorter due to high temperatures and elevation. Driving and by extension par-5 scoring will likely be the difference maker here, with Fleetwood winning back in 2019 on his par-5 scoring alone.

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The event has a long history which means a number of players lining up this week have had a decent number of trips around. Topping the list of history adjustments is local Branden Grace, who has parlayed his home-ground advantage into some excellent showings here including victory in 2017. He's played nearly a stroke above expectation across his 28 rounds and has the equal most experience in the field.

Not far behind him is Fleetwood, whose stats are padded somewhat by his victory against a poor field last year. He's had almost as much experience but has played only two-thirds of a stroke above himself.

At the other end of the spectrum, veteran Pablo Larrazabal doesn't seem to enjoy the thin air, having played half a stroke under expectation across a disappointing 28 round history.

Unfortunately, there isn't enough strokes gained data to perform the course fit approach so it's individual history overlays only.

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This event is out-trading the PGA event in Bermuda 2-to-1 at the moment and I would expect that gap to persist given the gulf in field strengths. Unsurprisingly, reigning two-time champ Fleetwood comes in as a single digit favourite and has been drifting downwards since open.

Fellow nice-guy Max Homa is also on the move downwards, having breached the $11 barrier on the back of heavy volume. Justin Thomas can't find a backer at all and has drifted out to a still too short $20 while after some early love, Rose has also lost favour with backers.

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Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Tommy Fleetwood for 0.5 units at $8.80+ 

Difficult to believe there's any value on a bloke lining up for his third win at a track but the model says Tommy is still trading about 10% above fair value. In a small field that's a bet I have to take.

BRANDEN GRACE

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Branden Grace for 0.3 units at $28+ 

Equally amazing is finding value in another previous winner. Grace's price has drifted over the last 12 hours and he's a great play now. Plying his trade on the LIV these days it's hard to get a great read on his form but his history here is so strong it gives me confidence to load up.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) # Aaron Rai for 0.3 units at $25+ 

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