AMERICAN EXPRESS 2024
Last Week's Wrap
Aaron Rai burst out of the blocks and was trading at 20s at the end of the first round, good for a 0.7 unit profit if you had laid him off. Henley took a little longer to get moving but made a big move on the final day which saw him trade at under evens before missing a four-footer on the 16th which ultimately cost him a spot in the 3-man playoff. Laying off just half the stake at the low price would've yielded a 3.5 unit profit.
In fairness, hindsight is 20/20 and cherry picking the low points is a little cheeky but in general a strategy of laying off long shots after a strong opening round while hanging onto tickets of stronger players who had a poor opener has worked well for me – if a player was a value play pre-tournament they will likely remain that way in-play, at least in the opening couple of days. Trading out exposure down the stretch in a tightly run race is also a worthwhile play as even the best players do funny things when the pressure is on.
This Week's Event
After two weeks on island time – that delivered two very long-shot winners – the Tour returns to the mainland for an event with a long pedigree of delivering champions with triple figure starting prices. PGA West at Palm Springs will host the American Express and welcomes players to a stunning multi-course desert setup not known for its difficulty. The event is a pro-am format, necessitating the need for three tracks to get all players through while the sun still shines.
The ease of the three tracks goes a long way to explaining why it has delivered so many unheralded winners – there just isn't enough challenge to separate the wheat from the chaff.
The Pete Dye Stadium Course will host two rounds and certainly presents the sternest challenge, with birdies available to players who take risks but water penalty lurking for those who miss their targets. There has historically been a benefit for length here but this week's layout has been trimmed by over 100 yards so it will be interesting to see whether this trend continues.
The Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course offers a number of reachable par-5s, presenting players with opportunities to gain strokes through big tee shots or long irons. Finally, the La Quinta track is an absolute walk in the park giving the amateurs in the field an opportunity to smash wayward drives down the wide fairways and attack very receptive greens with no spin required – the pros will have a field day here.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
The Stadium Course is the only track with enough history to be making much in the way of overlays and there's really only a couple of standout players. Adam Hadwin must love the desert air as he has destroyed his expected performance to the tune of 2 strokes per round across 15 trips, while Andrew Putnam has performed similarly across 13 rounds.
Fit wise, La Quinta should suit everyone while the Tournament and Stadium courses give a bit of a dump to longer hitters with the former requiring accuracy while the latter does not.
BETTING MARKETS
The Euro event over in Dubai has interestingly captured more attention from bettors this week however volumes have still been decent. World number 1 Scottie Scheffler is currently a single digit favourite as he'll likely do most weeks now that Jon Rahm is out of the picture. While he has received the most volume, Tom Kim is right behind him with his price see-sawing on the back of big volume.
Prices have been fairly stable once the volume came through with Sam Burns the only real shortener – coming in from $42 to $36. Jason Day is the big drifter and will likely see his price start in the 50s after trading below $40 early on.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER
He's short, but without Rahm and McIlroy in the field he should be shorter. Despite this event's history of delivering long price winners we have to take the big value on the Scheff here.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Scheffler for the win for 1 unit at $7+. 
PATRICK CANTLEY
In a surprisingly bad week for value, I'll take the slender overlay on Cantlay. With a Pebble Beach title to his name, he can clearly handle the glacial speed pro-am events are played at and should thrive on the easier tracks.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Cantlay for the win for 0.3 units at $12.50+.
AARON RAI, STEPHAN JAEGER, BEAU HOSSLER, DANIEL BERGER, MICHAEL KIM
With plays on the shortest price names on the board I thought I'd better throw in some long odds value just in case. These guys are all solid overlays at their current prices and are worth a first round dash.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Aaron Rai for 0.1 unit at $140+
BACK: Stephan Jaeger for 0.1 unit at $100+
BACK: Beau Hossler for 0.1 unit at $110+
BACK: Daniel Berger for 0.1 unit at $150+
BACK: Michael Kim for 0.1 unit at $290+
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