Who Will Win the 'Arc'?

We ask a range of industry professionals to give us their opinion on who will win the Autumn showpiece.

TARNAWA.
TARNAWA. Picture: (Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)

The question on everybody's lips - who will win this year's renewal of the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (2400m)? 

Simon Holt, UK Commentator

It looks a tremendous Arc. Fillies have a great record and Tarnawa has been trained for the race all season by Dermot Weld. She ran a cracker when second to St Mark's Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes last time despite being carried badly off line by the winner all the way up the home straight. That looks exceptionally strong form as St Mark's Basilica had won two French Classics and the Eclipse previously, and it's worth noting that last year's Arc hero Sottsass also prepped well in the Irish Champion. Moreover, Tarnawa has an excellent record at Longchamp having won the Vermeille and the Prix de l'Opera on Arc day last autumn. She may prove hard to beat.

Paul Kealy, Racing Post Tipster

Godolphin have two serious challengers in Derby winner Adayar and St Leger and Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane, but they may find one too good in the Irish-trained Tarnawa. Dermot Weld's mare suffered her first defeat in six starts when second to the recently retired St Mark's Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes, but she was carried across the track by the winner, and would have been given the race had it been staged in France.

That was over 2000m, which is a trip short of her best, and back over her correct trip she can give the Aga Khan his first Arc winner since Zarkava in 2008.

Mike Cattermole, UK Commentator

I think Tarnawa will take some beating. Although as a five-year-old mare, the stats are against her a bit as both Treve and Enable couldn't manage it. She has an outstanding turn of foot and acts on any ground. Christophe Soumillon is a perfect booking. Adayar is the danger and Chrono Genesis can go well.

Ian Bartlett, Equidia & UK Commentator

The most competitive Arc for many years I think and we could see a decent priced winner. I'm going for Alenquer to win. He has already beaten Adayar, and soft ground on Sunday will be fine for him. With the excellent Tom Marquand on board he should get a good trip. I will suggest Love as another to outrun her odds. With no pacemaker I am hoping she is the Coolmore horse that is selected as the front runner, Dettori will judge the fractions perfectly.

Lydia Hislop, RacingTV Presenter

Alenquer is hugely overpriced. He palpably needed to return to 2400m when chasing home Mishriff in the G1 International Stakes at York and ended up poorly positioned from a bad draw when eating up the ground late behind Hurricane Lane in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris (2400m). He even has a victory over Adayar to his name. In short, his form is interwoven with that of the market leaders and yet he's six or more times their price. Rain has only enhanced his chances.

Patrick Ferriday, Equidia Commentator

Tarnawa has been trained just for this race, and that's a big plus. Teona fits a nice profile of an improving 3-y-o filly and should make the frame. Snowfall would probably beat them all if she was at her best but after that last run that's a big question mark and O'Brien's horses are very in and out at the moment. One of the Godolphin horses should figure but they've had hard seasons.

Katherine Ford, International Editor Equidia & Sky Sports Racing French Correspondant

I'm going with Hurricane Lane to defy the stats and become the first St Leger winner to double up in the Arc. I think Charlie Appleby relishes the idea of writing a new page of Arc history for this 100th edition, the horse has course and distance form and has apparently recovered very well from Doncaster. To cap it all he has a great draw in stall 2.

Nick Luck, RacingTV Broadcaster

Adayar is my fancy for the Arc. A three-year- old of genuine quality should always be the starting point, and his acceleration in the Derby combined with the relentlessness shown in the King George makes him hard to resist. Further rain shouldn't inconvenience him too much.

John Hunt, Equidia, UK & BBC Commentator

I think Hurricane Lane and Chrono Genesis are the two fascinating runners in this 100th renewal of 'the race.'

Hurricane Lane is just the most superb, straightforward racehorse and has ability to match his attitude. I firmly believe his victory in the Grand Prix de Paris was the most taking display of the year. If it comes to a fight, there will be none braver heading to the line. Deep Bond looked good when winning his trial but Chrono Genesis has way better form over a mile and a half and should give Japanese race fans their biggest thrill since Orfevre.

Charley Rossi, French Trainer

This 2021 edition is very promising with horses from all over the world, which is very appealing. This Arc 2021 is special for me since my brother has a runner, Sealiway, and my eyes will be all on his horse to encourage him with all my heart. I find this race fascinating with "iron ladies" like Love and Tarnawa especially who are tough mares with accomplished careers. And then, some 3-year-old champions who seek consecration with a victory in the Arc like Hurricane Lane or Adayar whom I like a lot. They are two exceptional horses who are just unlucky enough to be the same age. I see a foreign winner for this Arc. My favorites will be the two 3-year-olds of Godolphin but also Tarnawa who, with an exceptionnal Christophe Soumillon, can achieve something extraordinary. The surest thing about this Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe weekend is my impatience to live it.

Arthur Cooper, Equidia Commentator

An excellent renewal for the centurion running of the 'Arc'. A case can be made for most of the runners. Three-year-old fillies have a strong record in recent renewals with Treve and Enable winning the race during their Classic year. Prior to her disappointing run in the G1 Prix Vermaille three weeks ago, Snowfall had been the standout filly of the season winning three consecutive Group One races over 2400m, two being Classics. With the weight allowance, standout fillies aged three prove hard to beat. Snowfall can return to the winners' enclosure. It could be a one/two for the fairer sex as the surprise horse may be Raabihah following her fourth in the event last year and she should have conditions to suit. The Japanese horse Deep Bond was impressive winning a course and distance trial contest three weeks ago whilst Hurricane Run could prove the best three-year-old colt. A race to savour.  

Theo Bachelot, French Jockey

It's the 100th Arc with no absolute favourite horse. There are a lot of contenders for the victory. My own favorite is Tarnawa. For this Arc, there are a lot of parameters to take into account: the first is the ground with a going that could be very heavy given the rain forecast all weekend. Handling this will be as important as a little draw number. Tarnawa has these two positive points for her.

In the opposition, there are the Japanese competitors on whom I lack perspective. Chrono Genesis apparently has more backing but these two are still question marks. I have more confidence in Charly Appleby's two horses, the two Godolphins, who will race with ambitions and in particular Adayar who has ran great in the past while Hurricane Lane has certainly won G1s but against maybe weaker lots. You have to consider Love and Snowfall especially who is only 3 years old. The German Alenquer has a good profile but we do not know the level of the races he has run. It's an exciting race with possible surprises like Sealiway too.

Richard Swainston, Equidia Commentator

Sottsass kept the prize on French soil last year, but with no great French fancy this time round, Sunday's Arc could be heading overseas. Although Epsom Derby winner Adayar is the shorter of Charlie Appleby's duo and the pick of William Buick, Hurricane Lane has excellent claims. Winner of the Grand Prix De Paris in the summer (over course and distance), and the St Leger at Doncaster he can continue his success under James Doyle. Chrono Genesis looks to be the better fancied of the Japanese runners, but compatriot Deep Bond looks interesting, and stamina will not be a problem for the Prix Foy winner, if the rains arrive in Paris. A big price alternative.

Christopher Head, French Trainer

I loved Deep Bond's performance in the Prix Foy and I'm lucky to see him every morning in the stable next to mine. For this 100th edition, the Japanese contenders certainly have one of their best chances. Being French, I am a little bit disappointed to see only a few French contenders in this historic 100th edition of the Arc. With the heavy going announced, there could be some big surprises.

This day will remain historic for me anyway since I am running the Prix de l'Opéra with Sibila Spain. Everything looks good. The filly prepared according to our wishes. She hasn't raced on soft ground since her debut, but it was one of her most spectacular victories. We approach the race with humility against Group 1 fillies but in terms of tracking data, I know that Sibila Spain has times that give it all her chances

Eddy Hardouin, French Jockey

This 100th edition is a good vintage. Alas, I don't think a French horse that will win. I rode in the Arc Trials and since my partner is German, I also observed the German horse, but if he has won great races at home, we do not know his level against international horses.

Tarnawa is my favorite and thanks to the riding of Christophe Soumillon, it would be at least one jockey from France who would win. And then, I like Adayar, Hurricane Lane, Chrono Genesis even if she runs fresh because she looks ready given her gallop on Wednesday and Snowfall rather than Love at the O'Brien's.


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