French Racing - Who Will Win The 'ARC'?

The question everyone wants an answer to - who will win this year's G1 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (2400m).

ONESTO.
ONESTO. Picture: Pat Healy Photography

We ask the Equidia English Commentary team for their opinions on who they think will land the big prize.

Ian Bartlett

I'm going to select the solid proven 5yo mare from the U.K, Alpinista. It is two years since she has been beaten and her last 5 wins have been at Group 1 level over the Arc trip.
I think three year olds Onesto and La Parisienne rate as her main dangers. Onesto has a course and distance win at his only try at the trip and good form at slightly shorter, I think he can reverse form from Leopardstown last time with Luxembourg.

Arthur Cooper

With the rain having arrived in Paris and a soft track at Longchamp, this appears to be a competitive and open 'Arc'. 

The three-year-old continuing to progress is Onesto. He could be the horse to beat. Victorious in the Grand Prix de Paris (G1) over course and distance in July, he followed this finishing second in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown when dropping back to 2000m. With three-year-old colt's record in the race, the weight allowance and that he is proven over the trip, he is the top choice.

The mare Alpinista has statistic that point to her going close to winning. First at her past five stars, all at G1 and all over 2400m, her record speaks for itself, plus she has beaten a number of rivals in the past. Winning the Grand Prix de St Cloud (G1) in early July stamped her as a mare that has the ability and class to win an Arc.

Patrick Ferriday

Luxembourg - A fair favourite. Excellent comeback to win the Irish Champion but I'd worry that O'Brien can pull that trick off twice in a month. Not entirely sure that the extra distance is what he wants.

Alpinista - Can't fault her consistency but this is a giant rise in class if not in Group status. Also I'd prefer to see a Lonchamp jockey. Solid bet to be fifth.

Vadeni - Surprise decision to run. Might stay, might not but held on Irish Champion form anyway. Also fortunate to win Eclipse.

Titleholder - A Japanese horse will win the Arc eventually but better ones than this have been beaten.

Torquator Tasso - Beaten by the average Medocino last time. Deserved winner last year but doubling up seems very unlikely. He's not Alleged, Enable or Treve.

Onesto - Brilliant trial winner, beaten by the draw in the Jockey Club. Had to work to beat Simca Mille in the Grand Prix de Paris and only beaten 1/2l by Luxembourg at the Curragh. Should turn that round over this trip and excellent value at 12/1. Might even drift to longer in UK but not in France.

Alex Fussey

The Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown looks to hold the key to years renewal. A race won in gutsy fashion by Luxembourg. From the beginning of the season he struck me as a colt who would only improve the further he went and that was born out when he powered past Onesto and was well on top at the line. He's an exciting colt who has a real essence of star quality and I hope he will shine on Sunday!

The aforementioned Onesto is a real admirable performer. He's tenacious and battled hardened having run well in a number of top tier races this campaign including when winning the Grand Prix De Paris. He rates as an excellent place prospect.

Kyle Merrick

The 2022 G1 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (2400m) is another exciting yet open renewal. Luxembourg heads up the Irish challenge this time with the Aidan O'Brien trained three-year-old colt now bidding for a hat-trick. Despite being a two-time Group One winner, his zero experience over 2400m is off-putting. Similar comments can be applied too last year's winner Torquator Tasso. If the rains comes then his chances increase. His mixed form which includes some very disappointing runs this year is why an each-way bet is more likely for this five-year-old. 

My top-three selections are headed up by Alpinista, Vadeni and Onesto. Starting with the latter, the G1 Grand Prix de Paris (2400m) winner, Onesto makes plenty of appeal with that course and distance race working out really well. The runner-up, Simca Mille has won a Group Two since and the fourth, Eldar Eldarov was a good winner of the G1 St Leger Stakes (2900m) at Doncaster (UK) last month.

Next on the list is Vadeni, a progressive and hugely talented three-year-old son of Churchill who has been eye-catching on the way he travels through his races with a Group Three win preceding a pair of top-level triumphs (Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (2100m) and the Eclipse (2000m) at Sandown (UK)). He had little luck in running when a solid third behind Luxembourg and Onesto at Leopardstown (Ireland) in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes (2000m).

Overall, Alpinista is my selection bringing brilliant top-class and consistent form. The five-year-old mare by Frankel has been unbeaten since April 2021 with multiple Group One successes in Germany including a victory over 2400m where she beat Torquator Tasso in August 2021. Despite only having two outings this year, she has won both in convincing style, the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (2400m) and the G1 Yorkshire Oaks (2400m) at York (UK). With a great record over the trip and winning form on soft ground, she can maintain the strong recent record for the fillies and mares. The leading contender.

Darren Owen

Onesto was a staying on fifth in the Prix Du Jockey Club, appearing to cry out for 2,400 metres. This was born out with victory in the Grand Prix De Paris, a piece of form which has worked out well.
He ran a big race over shorter behind Luxembourg in the Irish Champion Stakes, acts in soft ground and certainly has the pedigree to make his presence felt in an open Arc.
Luxembourg's claims have grown recently and of those at bigger odds who may have the potential to improve is Al Hakeem, another who shaped well in the Jockey Club.

Richard Swainston

Three-year-olds have an excellent record in the Arc, however the last winner was Enable in 2017. 

Onesto, trained by Fabrice Chappet, (yet to win the race), is nicely bred being by Frankel out of a Sea the Stars mare. He was last seen out finishing second to Luxembourg in the Irish Champion stakes at Leopardstown three weeks ago. Prior to that Onesto won the Grand Prix de Paris in July over the Arc course and distance. 

Obviously, he has to reverse the placings from the Irish race with Luxembourg, but over this extra 400m at a course he has won at, he may well achieve this. 


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