Rail - A Course

Race 1

#5 GENEVA could have easily been unbeaten at his two starts to date but immaturity, size and greenness have been the three costly factors. At 1220lbs he's a massive 3yo son of CAPITALIST who'll need more racing to find his proper mojo but remains a great chance off get it done third time lucky. He was recently taken to Happy Valley for an additional trial and the experience and extra fitness can only further enhance his winning chance here.

#11 HAPPY FOR ALL has drawn poorly at his past couple of runs and in the end the task set was to great. That can be turnaround here today with the drop back in trip to 1200m and a better barrier draw secured. He won a race quite similar to this last season when settling closer in the run and on that occasion James McDonald was also the rider on board.

#3 MUST GO is another sizeable 3yo individual with plenty to learn but registers as one of the major players. Zac Purton jumping back aboard from a favourable draw creates plenty of interest and you can be confident he'll enjoy a good economical run. He has displayed lapses of concentration on more than one occasion, which may be a costly component, but his closing sectional's suggest he's got what it takes.

#12 STRATHBARRY pulled up with blood in the trachea at his first and second starts but is worth including. He's got something to offer judged on his debut down the straight but again pulled up with an issue to his left fore last start. He was also heavily impeded over the concluding stages but continued to run a strong race, so with a good draw and familiar rider atop he's considered.

#10 SUPER BONUS appeared a progressive youngster last season when racing in griffin company but has struggled to find the line this campaign. The low draw here maps him as the likely leader, courtesy of his reliable gate speed, and that'll set him up to dash at the judge. He'll need to find an extra six lengths in the stretch however but the addition of a tongue tie may well do the trick.

Selections : 5,11,3,12,10

R2 - 14,11,1,2,6

R3 - 6,7,10,2,1

R4 - 12,11,10,4,5

R5 - 1,10,2,4,5

R6 - 1,10,2,3,6

Race 7

BMW HONG KONG DERBY
(2000m - Set Weights)
3rd Leg 4yo Classic Series

#4 CHILL CHIBI has ratings to find if he's going to trouble the major players in this year's addition of the Hong Kong Derby but it's not beyond him to win. With many of the top rated fancy's drawing wide the shoe is now on the other foot, as he draws low. That was the case in the Hong Kong Classic Cup where he gave away many lengths through the initial stages from the wide draw when trying to position. Only one horse finished off better then he through the final 400m and that was HELIOS EXPRESS, who enjoyed the economical suck run on speed.
It'll take a cool, calm and collected ride from local young rider Jerry Chau but with a touch of luck they can get it done.

#7 MASSIVE SOVEREIGN is the most unexposed and fascinating runner I've seen in the Hong Kong Derby for many years and likely to measure up. The former Irish galloper won his maiden on the polytrack straight course at Dundalk by a conservative six lengths, before winning a quality 3yo race on turf at Leopardstown under Ryan Moore. The Aidan O'Brien stable don't normally move on there high quality stock but there's a ruff chance this fellows got under someone's guard. Time shall tell, but his debut start and win in Hong Kong over this very course and trip was both exceptional and effortless. With Zac Purton board, and a possible bun fight early for the lead, he might just chug home strongly to win.

#2 HELIOS EXPRESS is looking to emulate the great RAPPER DRAGON and the almighty GOLDEN SIXTY by clean sweeping the 4yo classic series but the wide draw, in gate thirteen, has thrown a major spanner in the works. Do they roll forward, or perhaps ease back, is without doubt the most intriguing and twenty six million HKD question. There'll definitely be an opportunity to roll across with CHANCHENG GLORY but other major chances drawn similar could well be wanting to doing the same. Whatever the case, he's the hardest to beat but definitely vulnerable to tactics.

#5 ENSUED has enjoyed the perfect preparation for his attempt at Hong Kong Derby glory but has also been dealt a blow with the wide and awkward draw. Ryan Moore would've had other options in this event but sticks with the John Size trained runner after a solid and hearty effort in the Hong Kong Classic Cup. Like many of the fancied runners he's going to need his fair share of good fortune but it's worth remembering, he's the one and only runner proven over the trip and in the class.

#14 STAR MAC in some respects was the run of the race in the Hong Kong Classic Cup after beginning fairly, settling back and then covering ground running up to the home bend. He stayed on well thereafter and in the run to the post continued to make further headway through the line. He's drawn to do no work and gives the impression 2000m is going to suit but it maybe tight when he's looking for room. The ratings and handicappers say he's up against the wall but I won't be surprised if he run's a big race.

Selections : 4,7,2,5,14

R8 - 2,8,6,9,10

R9 - 5,4,1,2,11

Race 10

#8 PATCH OF THETA has show plenty of upside in his short career and it'll be tested again today in this open and challenging class 3 contest. What's been the most impressive attribute with this lightly raced son of ZOUSTAR is his ability to recover from obstacles thrown at him during a race. He's yet to compete in an event where everything has gone well but continues to find the line in time. Consistent output of this degree normally tells you they're mentally committed with physical rating points in hand.

#14 AEROINVINCIBLE toyed with his rivals when winning over this course and trip recently and the 3yo looks a good type. He's raced under the same ownership as AEROVELOCITY, a multiple and international Gp 1 winner, so I'd be expecting him to gradually work his way through the grades. Andrea Atzeni is also having a mighty fine season in the saddle and he hasn't let anyone push him out of the seat.

#2 GREEN N WHITE is another good type on the up and with Zac Purton remaining aboard he's going to be hard to beat. He'll be looking for cover early on so the draw shouldn't be of concern, in fact, it'll probably assure he isn't hemmed away. The 135lb maybe a concerning factor when push comes to shove, however, his sectional times suggest he'll be very competitive in class 2, if he wins today.

#5 MAGNIFICENT NINE just missed out on the win last start after receiving a fairly good run in transit. Brenton Avdulla now jumps aboard, with Zac Purton sticking to GREEN N WHITE, and the barrier draw appears tricky. He's yet to win from four starts, but at the same time hasn't don't to much wrong, so he's difficult to completely ignore.

#9 BIG RED shall arrive into this contest fresh from a break following ligament issues in December last year. He had plenty of racing earlier in the season so they'll be residual fitness still in the tank whilst the 1400m should suit. A recent trial behind star sprinter VICTORY THE WINNER was a nice blow out for the sizeable giant, so he's worthy of including in the wider exotics.

Selections : 8,14,2,5,9