Unlike last season, there is no interest in relegation spots coming into final day. Luton sit three points and 12 goal difference behind Forest so that is as cut and dried as it gets without being mathematically certain.
The focus lies at the head of the table. Manchester City's task is straightforward – win at home to West Ham and an unprecedented fourth consecutive top-flight title is theirs. Draw or lose and they need Arsenal to not win at home to Everton to retain the title.
The more complicated scenario surrounds Europa League and Conference League qualification, with the possibilities hinging on the result of the FA Cup final.
Europa League spot(s) go to the fifth-placed side and the FA Cup winner (if the FA Cup winner is outside the top four). A Conference League spot goes to the sixth-placed side if the FA Cup winner is outside the top four, or the seventh-placed side if the FA Cup winner is inside the top four.
Hence, if City win at Wembley, the sixth-placed side joins the fifth-placed side in the Europa, and the seventh-placed side goes to the Conference. Simple.
If United wins the final, it's potentially messier. By winning the Cup they gain automatic entry to Europa. If they finish sixth in the EPL, the seventh-placed side goes to the Conference. If they finish seventh or lower, the seventh-placed side miss out altogether on European football (if it's not Man U as Cup winners of course).
With these permutations in mind, the games of importance on Monday morning regarding European qualification are Brentford v Newcastle, Brighton v Man U, Chelsea v Bournemouth, and Sheffield Utd v Spurs. Add those four games to the two involving the title contenders, and we have just four 'dead-rubbers' out of ten games.
All games kick off at 1.00am Monday 20 May.
ARSENAL v EVERTON
ARSENAL FORM: Keep doing what they must do, but the premiership dream is out of their hands. Looked a bit nervy in despatching Man U on Sunday despite taking an early lead. Seven clean sheets in the last nine games is the backbone of their success. At home in 2024 it has been seven wins from eight, the loss to Villa in April looking very much like the pivotal game in their season.
EVERTON FORM: Without defeat in five, winning four, and like Arsenal they have built their fine run around excellent defence. The concern for the Toffees is that in the ten away games since a win at Turf Moor in December, they have collected just four points.
HISTORY: Arsenal has won three of the last four encounters, including by a single goal in the Goodison clash in September.
Prediction: Arsenal win ($1.18 with bet365*)
BRENTFORD v NEWCASTLE
BRENTFORD FORM: The return of key players has seen a steady end to the 23/24 campaign, with just one loss in the last eight games. Scored twice, and conceded once, after the 85th minute to register a thrilling win against an in-form Bournemouth away last weekend. Unbeaten in their last five games at the Gtech, although four of those were draws.
NEWCASTLE FORM: Suffered a huge set-back in their European qualification quest when beaten at Old Trafford on Wednesday evening. After a poor first half the Magpies fired up after the break but eventually succumbed to a couple of classy finishes by Amad and Hojlund. Only three clean sheets in their last 20 matches is not good enough, and neither is 17 points from 18 away matches.
Best case scenario: win this, Chelsea lose, and Man City win the FA Cup final = Europa League.
Worst case scenario: lose this, and Man U either earn a point at Brighton or win the FA Cup = no European qualification.
HISTORY: Brentford last defeated Newcastle in a league fixture in January 1948! Since the Bees' arrival in the Premier League, they have lost four of five to today's visitors, including the reverse fixture in September when a Callum Wilson penalty separated the sides.
Prediction: Draw ($3.60 with bet365*)
BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER UTD
BRIGHTON FORM: De Zerbi will be glad to see the back of this season. A poor ending to the Europa campaign, and just four wins in the league this calendar year. The Seagulls sit in 10th, and they could go as low as 13th if things go against them this weekend. Chelsea proved a little too good on Wednesday evening, perhaps due to having more to play for, and so it is the case in this one. Incredibly, Brighton last scored more than one goal in a game on 18 February, a run of 12 matches.
MANCHESTER UTD FORM: Improved marginally against Arsenal last weekend in a dour affair, then raised an effort for their last home game midweek and deservedly took out an entertaining encounter against Newcastle 3-2. That was just the third win in 13 in the league, and a welcomed return to form with two crucial games in the next seven days – this one then a Cup Final against Man City next weekend.
Best case scenario: Cannot finish higher than seventh due to goal difference, so the only way to the Europa League is a win at Wembley.
Worst case scenario: Earn less points than or the same amount of points as Newcastle this weekend and lose the Cup final = no European qualification.
HISTORY: Brighton has won the last four EPL meetings including a comprehensive 3-1 victory at Old Trafford earlier this season.
Prediction: Draw ($4.00 with bet365*)
BURNLEY v NOTTINGHAM FOREST
BURNLEY FORM: Back-to-back losses to Newcastle and Spurs ended a belated bid for survival. Never got out of the bottom three from the word go and were a disappointment after a stellar Championship campaign in 22/23. Those who took $1.57 about the Clarets being the highest finishers of the promoted teams will be praying for a win here and a Luton loss, lifting Burnley to 18th.
FOREST FORM: Looked like surviving in style when Hudson-Odoi curled in a beauty at the City Ground last weekend. Alas, a couple of late replies by Chelsea means Forest stay just three ahead of Luton. However, a vastly superior goal difference makes this and Luton's clash with Fulham academic. Forest have been good in their last three to be fair, giving Man City and Chelsea decent frights, so it puts them in a good frame of mind for the off-season unless things go pear-shaped here.
HISTORY: This ended 1-1 at the City Ground in September in the first meeting between these sides in the top-flight since 1971.
Prediction: Burnley win ($2.90 with bet365*)
CHELSEA v BOURNEMOUTH
CHELSEA FORM: Only one defeat in the last 14 games, and four straight wins in 13 days in May, has catapulted the Blues from mid-table obscurity to the brink of European qualification. The goals keep flowing, with player-of-the-year Cole Palmer and the sorely missed Christopher Nkunku finding the net at Brighton midweek to get the points. The 5-0 loss at Arsenal in late April shows Pochettino has a lot of work to do to get his side in contention next year, but things are certainly brighter than they were at Christmas.
Best case scenario: Win this, and Tottenham lose = Europa League. Alternatively, earn at least a point here and Man City win the FA Cup = Europa League.
Worst case scenario: Lose this, Newcastle win, and Man U win the FA Cup = no European qualification.
BOURNEMOUTH FORM: A tremendous season regardless of what happens here. With three points in the first nine matches, the decision to axe Gary O'Neil and instate Andoni Iraola looked foolish. However, the big spending to assemble a talented attack-minded squad finally paid off and the Cherries experienced two golden runs this season, one in Nov/Dec and the other in March. Disappointed last weekend, conceding late in the final home game against Brentford.
HISTORY: Bournemouth has won three of the last eight league clashes, but none since December 2019. This ended 0-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season when neither team was firing.
Prediction: Chelsea win ($1.45 with bet365*)
CRYSTAL PALACE v ASTON VILLA
PALACE FORM: A remarkable turnaround in form continued last weekend when the three big guns up front each scored in a comfortable win over Wolves on the road. In this mood, it is fair to say the Arsenal and Man City are probably glad they are playing who they are this weekend, and not travelling to Selhurst Park.
VILLA FORM: Showed great fortitude to peg back a two-goal deficit late in the piece against Liverpool at Villa Park midweek in one of the better games of the season. The Villa Park crowd acted as a twelfth man, and the necessity to keep piling on points to stay clear of Spurs in the race for fourth hung over them. At the end of a long campaign, and with Man City beating Spurs and releasing that Champions League qualification pressure valve finally, there's a big chance Villa might be a bit off-pace in this one.
HISTORY: Palace has won four of the last five meetings at Selhurst Park.
Prediction: Crystal Palace win ($1.83 with bet365*)
LIVERPOOL v WOLVES
LIVERPOOL FORM: Looking a bit sharper in their last two although the late collapse at Villa was symptomatic of their recent problems. Nine goals conceded in the last four games, four of them against Everton and West Ham who aren't the greatest attacking machines in the premiership. Only two wins in the last seven has seen their title challenge go up in smoke. This is the Jurgen Klopp farewell match so his players and crowd will be pumped. Not all farewells go according to script though – Sir Alex left Man U after 27 years with a 5-5 draw against West Brom.
WOLVES FORM: Just one win, against Luton, in their last nine has been a disappointing end to an otherwise pleasing campaign for a side light on depth. Losing four of the last five at Molineaux is out of character, and a run of five without success on their travels is unlikely to improve in the Anfield cauldron.
HISTORY: Liverpool has won the last six league matches at home against Wolves. The Reds staged a second half comeback to win 3-1 in the reverse fixture.
Prediction: Liverpool win ($1.18 with bet365*)
LUTON v FULHAM
LUTON FORM: Winning just one game since the beginning of February has put the Hatters in an impossible position to stay up – they need about a dozen goals and hope Forest lose. After a good first half against West Ham last weekend, they were outclassed in the second stanza which effectively consigned the minnows back to the Championship. A brave effort, but in the end a lack of quality was evident.
FULHAM FORM: Dragging their feet to the line with nothing to play for over the past few weeks. Never in the hunt once City scored early at Craven Cottage last weekend and failed to find the net for the second game in a row. Three wins on the road all season has stifled any chance this talented side has had of pressing for a European position.
HISTORY: Fulham scored the only goal in the September meeting.
Prediction: Fulham win ($2.30 with bet365*)
MANCHESTER CITY v WEST HAM
MANCHESTER CITY FORM: Eight wins in a row since the beginning of April, and undefeated in 2024 – it's a familiar tale. Spurs put up a good fight midweek and, but for a pretty easy miss by Son deep in the game, the title might have slid from City's grasp. It didn't, and they come to their fortress with steely resolve to make history and win for the fourth straight time, and six of the last seven.
WEST HAM FORM: Poor in the first half last weekend at home against Luton but dug deep for Moyes' last home game and looked sharp and hungry in the second half to record a soft win in the end. Three seasons of European football look to be taking their toll on an aging squad. If the Hammers don't defend like their lives depend on it, this title-deciding match might be all over after 20 minutes.
HISTORY: City has won the last eight encounters at the Etihad. Save for a win on penalties in the 2021/22 League Cup, the Hammers have not beaten City in 18 meetings since 2015.
Prediction: Manchester City win ($1.08 with bet365*)
SHEFFIELD UTD v TOTTENHAM
SHEFFIELD UTD FORM: Fans get their last taste of Premier League football for a while. It's been one of the more turgid campaigns in EPL history – if the Blades come up empty here their 16 points is the equal third lowest after Derby's 11 in 07/08 and Sunderland's 15 in 05/06. The single goal conceded against Everton last weekend made it 101 for the season – an all-time high in the EPL era. They'd like to go out on a high, but don't have the quality to get the job done.
TOTTENHAM FORM: An awful end to the season although the run in, except for Burnley last Saturday, was torrid. A fifth placing would still be a decent achievement, given they broke in a rookie manager and lost one of the world's best strikers in the Summer. The effort at home to Man City midweek was brave. If Son converted the chance he would probably bury nine times out of ten, it would have been one of their great results in recent times.
Best case scenario: Earn at least a point = Europa League. Alternatively, if Man City wins the FA Cup, they qualify for the Europa League regardless.
Worst case scenario: Lose this, Chelsea win and Man U win the FA Cup = Conference League.
HISTORY: Spurs waited until stoppage time to grab a couple of late goals, the second a winner, and avert a huge boil-over in London earlier in the campaign.
Prediction: Tottenham win ($1.33 with bet365*)
SUGGESTED WAGERS:
Crystal Palace to lead at halftime and fulltime at $2.87* with bet365.
Chelsea to win and both teams to score at $2.25* with bet365.
Manchester City to win and West Ham not to score at $1.90* with bet365.
*Odds correct at 4.00pm 16 May 2024.
