Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1800m):
The maidens over a longer trip get us rolling, and in a race where punters are likely to support a few runners, lightly raced filly 9. Ana Carolina can strike second-up off a six week break. Came off two fair provincial runs in and around this distance to run home well at this track behind that break in deeper CL1 company despite being unwanted in betting. That run augurs well coming back to maiden class, and leading jockey sticks.
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with honest 4. Balmierro who has been only fair to the line in three runs this prep, but finally drops back from metro opposition and couldn't be fitter. After two runs back from a spell, 3. Akkadian Emperor also looks primed to peak from a better draw with gear changes. Keep safe 10. Khant Fail who was well beaten as a heavily backed favourite at Wyong second-up, but coming back in distance on a much firmer track are big pluses; while improving 7. Rhinestone Lad is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Ana Carolina to win
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1600m):
Progressive three-year-old 1. I Am Breathing is bursting to break through third-up in his first full prep. Only missed by a long neck as an easing favourite when fresh before tracking the speed and again missing narrowly. A little extra ground, and back on a drying surface hold the key in a fairly modest lineup, especially with the well-touted stablemate coming out early.
Dangers: Improving filly 4. Ladyking sits clearly on the next line, back in trip fifth-up in her first proper prep; while including both 5. Fifth Force third-up; and 6. Bertie who has beaten all bar the winner in his last two; in all exotic plays.
How to play it: I Am Breathing to win
Race 3 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN HCP (1300m):
A stack of chances in this, but heading the value is emerging Kembla filly 8. Montigo Bay who finds an ideal peak race at her third start over 1000m further. Did her best work late when debuting in a more than handy Midway maiden before working home late into a place at Newcastle, although beaten a fair way. Gets back on firmer ground now, and any extra ground will be appreciated, with a superior jockey taking over.
Dangers: Progressive filly 4. Rubilace has to overcome a wide draw, but she's knocking on the door at her third start after a couple of handy closing runs, the latest beaten a long head in heavy going against metro opposition. Watch the betting closely on Shamus Award three-year-old 2. Odegaard who makes his debut for Godolphin at generous odds behind two trials. Well bred 10. Royalify has been very disappointing across four runs this prep, the latest laying in and folding up after leading at Newcastle as a rock solid favourite. Will need to find a bit, but draws to do less work early, and importantly blinkers are back on. Home tracker 6. Shadow Express; resuming provincial mare 7. Miss Cartel who has ability and trialled quietly; and 15. Reiby Princess if she gets a run; can all add plenty of value into trifecta and first four returns.
How to play it: Montigo Bay each way
Race 4 SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):
Randwick-based 4. Choice Legend is very lightly raced coming off an eight month spell, but this looks a nice starting point for a mare with enough natural ability. Was placed in a one-off metro Super Maiden run last spring before being turned out, but signalled a big return with two progressive trials, the latest strong through the line into a place over 1050m.
Dangers: Similarly, Godolphin filly 5. Equipage also has plenty of ability returning off two trials, and was only out of a place once in five runs last prep. Big watch on two-year-old I Am Invincible colt 10. Braveheart on debut for the Snowden stable off two recent trials, winning the latest, and drawn to get a handy run. Was scratched from Warwick Farm on Wednesday to be saved for this. Market watch too on Brazen Beau two-year-old 11. Dark Gleam on debut for the Ryan-Alexiou yard off two improving trials; while another two-year-old first starter 12. True Amor from the John O'Shea yard won the second of two trials, and draws to get a good run
How to play it: Choice Legend each way
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):
Same journey here for the lower class improvers, and with little separating the leading contenders, it shapes best for likely leader 1. Eye Of The Fire from the inside draw. Careered away to win on debut at the Beaumont track before twice being swamped in the final strides as a heavily backed favourite. Prepared to forgive, crucially coming back a furlong in distance, and draws to control the race again.
Dangers: Honest mare 5. Betsy's Flag is clear next best back on firmer ground fourth-up; while 4. Zambezi River is over the odds despite tackling a much stronger field after a smart country maiden win third-up. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Eye Of The Fire to win
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1300m):
No reason progressive colt 2. Snatchreilly can't make it consecutive wins up in class 19 days between runs. Was $3.80 into $2.70 when beaten only a half length at this track resuming before a dominant maiden win from barrier to box at Newcastle. Boasts good sectional speed, and even fitter now, he can roll forward and control proceedings again.
Dangers: Respect for 1. Tannenburg second-up off a strong closing return in tougher grade at Newcastle, and another who was preferred here to Wednesday's Warwick Farm meeting. Gap to the rest headed by 5. Das Capital who ran way above himself when beaten only a long neck in a provincial BM 68 coming off a seven week break; while both metro filly 8. Inquisitive Legend third-up; and strong finisher 9. Monte Maximus who is drawn to get cover with winkers replacing blinkers; can figure in the money.
How to play it: Snatchreilly to win
Race 7 MIDWAY CLASS 1 HCP (1600m):
A significant rise in distance to the mile third-up is the catalyst for talented and still improving filly 2. Watch My Girl to grab a second career win at her seventh start. Wasn't far away in a BM 64 at Gosford before relishing the bigger track at Kembla when charging late to unluckily miss by a nose. Bred to get much further, and this shapes as peaking time for a galloper that will continue to improve over longer trips.
Dangers: Tough 1. Tenderize was close-up in a much deeper metro BM 72 run in very heavy ground, and must be a serious threat back in this class on firmer footing, although still a shade under the odds from a tricky draw. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Twin Turbo who has been freshened up via a handy trial; while include 5. Sizzler who draws the fence; and 7. Outcast Girl reloading third-up off a dominant and fast-finishing fillies & mares maiden win; in trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Watch My Girl to win
Race 8 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (2100m):
Tricky staying battle to finish. Progressive and underrated 10. Three Wise Men is trained on the track and yearning for this longer trip after charging home from the back on the Kensington track just eight days ago. Very well placed now with the early favourite being preferred at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.
Dangers: Keep safe improving 5. Imezaaki third-up over more ground; while 1. Just Go Bang who is hard fit and shooting for three straight; and 4. Vadamos Queen deep into her prep; head the rest.
How to play it: Three Wise Men to win
BEST BETS:
R2 1. I AM BREATHING
R5 1. EYE OF THE FIRE
BEST VALUE:
R4 4. CHOICE LEGEND
