Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1290m):
The maidens kick off Showcase Cup day, and with superior barrier speed, hard to see progressive filly 10. Snippety Star getting rolled. Has narrowly missed out in all three runs this prep, twice as a red-hot fancy & the latest leading as the hottest of favourites when gunned down in the final strides. Carries 1kg less here, and this should be the starting point for paying back punters.
Dangers: Keep safe honest 7. Nasty Streak who is on a seven day back-up after hitting the line late in a handy maiden at Wellington; while locally-trained 2. Luskin Vain looks each-way value from a soft draw deep into the prep. Gap to the rest headed by 5. Bloomin' Ready resuming off a lengthy spell from the inside draw.
How to play it: Snippety Star to win and quinella 7 and 10
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1010m):
An ideal on-speed draw, and a track continuing to dry out, is the recipe for Warwick Farm three-year-old 1. Joey D'Or claiming a first-up win. Showed more than enough across his first prep, placed in three of four runs in deeper provincial fields, and looked up to the mark winning a soft track trial last month. Bypassed Hawkesbury on Thursday to run here.
Dangers: Naturally track the betting on two-year-old Zoustar filly 12. Zoubaby who debuts from a low draw for the Freedman yard at Rosehill behind two forward trials in soft going. Include both 3. Commando Jack back from metro company third-up with winkers being added; and two-year-old debutant gelding 8. Ningaloo Reef by Rubick; in trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Joey D'or to win
Race 3 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1610m):
Tough and open middle distance battle here, but there's good value around Canberra mare 9. All So Easy who can go back-to-back staying at the distance fourth-up in a deeper race. Tracked the speed before finishing best to win a CL1 at the Sapphire Coast nearly four weeks ago, and carries 2kg less here.
Dangers: Home tracker 1. D'oro Choice bolted in from the front two starts back in a weaker line-up before holding his own okay behind a smart winer at Dubbo 12 days ago. Drawn the fence. Include in all exotics, improving 2. Lawyer's Delight fourth-up; 3. Kalpana who is a reliable weight carrier, and hasn't finished further back than second in her last four against weaker opposition; and hard fit mare 4. Gypsy Romance who draws to get a soft run around midfield.
How to play it: All So Easy each way
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1410m):
Provincial filly 3. All Too Sneaky is ready to win again third-up from the inside gate. Hit the line late to only miss by a head when resuming before close-up again in a handy quality Class 1 field at Newcastle. That form reads well for this getting out over a bit more ground, and was also scratched from Hawkesbury to be saved for this.
Dangers: Big watch on likely favorite and talented Trapeze Artist filly 5. Piggyback from the Ciaron Maher stable returning for her first run since a smart provincial win on debut in early December. Has been given two trials, and any sort of decent release and position in the run, and she will be hard to hold out. Improving 1. Externus has been close-up in two deeper provincial races this prep, and drawn to park just behind the speed should be right in the finish. The market will be a solid indicator with ultra consistent home tracker 7. Eilhrac who has beaten all but the winner in his last three, and gets a little weight relief. Be shocked if the winner comes from anywhere else, but from a low draw, metropolitan filly 4. Kimono, who won her maiden at this track two starts back, is a worthy inclusion in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: All Too Sneaky to win
Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1010m):
Back to the sprint trip, and it augurs well for progressivo metro four-year-old 4. Nonshalaant who is a good weight carrier, and bursting to win again fourth-up. Has missed narrowly in his last two outings at this track, both times driving home from just off the speed, and the form out of those races has been strong.
Dangers: Progressive 5. Dagon is the clear threat third-up behind a strong finishing run in deeper company at Wyong. Honest 1. Destiny's Bounty led all the way in weaker company at Cowra when reloading off a seven week break, but this is tougher. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Titan Star fourth-up from a softer draw; and 9. Loving Angel who finished behind the top selection here four weeks back.
How to play it: Nonshalaant to win
Race 6 CUP DAY SPRINT (1010m):
Staying at the distance for the feature sprint, and it looks like the ticket for provincial-based six-year-old 3. Akaka Falls to go back to back now that he's finally returned to winning ways. Mixed his form last spring in and around BM 64 grade, although was never beaten far, before resuming with an emphatic BM 68 win at Newcastle roaring home from midfield. That reads well for this, drawn to do little or no work off the speed again, and he normally always holds his form into the next run in any prep.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by 7. Smokeshow who can improve sharply second-up after failing badly in a Federal at Canberra where it was very tough to make ground from well back. Has a near 30 percent win rate from 15 starts. An each way case can also be made for 1. Kattegat who ideally would like it wetter, but comes off a tough front-running win second-up under a similar big weight. Keep safe too 2. Mr Moppett who hasn't won for a long time, but drops back from much tougher BM 78 metro grade in Victoria. Down sharply in weight from a wide draw, tough provincial-based 10. Procrastinator can run into minor money; while home tracker 8. Brief Statement is the best of the rest on a significant weight drop.
How to play it: Akaka Falls to win
Race 7 ORANGE GOLD CUP (2010m):
The headline Cup gives more runners a chance to book a berth in the Big Dance at Randwick in spring, and that could well be progressive Dubbo-based 7. Blue Guitar aiming for consecutive wins on a seven day turnaround. Fought on okay after leading at Mudgee before being ridden quieter and zooming home to easily capture a BM 66 on the first day of the Wellington carnival. This isn't much harder and he's in very well at the weights dropping down to the 54kg limit.
Dangers: Naturally big watch on Rosehill raider 4. Piraeus who was in the money in three straight runs, including the Canberra Cup Preview and a metro BM 72 before a poor effort at Gosford. Draws to get a handy trail just off the speed, and is a serious threat over his pet distance. Progressive and in-form 1. Vincenzo has won his last two under big weights, and can be right there again, but has to give the top selection 7kg. Don't dismiss evergreen 3. Athena's Lad who backs up in five days from a solid finishing run in the Wellington Cup, and the stable is among the best at placing runners around the region. Also on the limit weight, 8. Our Orator ran on late last start to finish under three lengths from the top selection, and is an exotic player.
How to play it: Blue Guitar to win
Race 8 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1310m):
Good competitive closer for this grade, and it shapes clear best for another Maher-trained visitor in promising and unbeaten filly 7. Up To Mischief who can win again. Was spelled after a debut win in Canberra last spring before an emphatic return at Mudgee; powering home from well back to win a Class 1. Steps up a notch here over further, but still looks to have oodles in the tank, and carries only 1kg more from a soft trailing draw.
Dangers: Improving 5. De Forerunner has plenty of ability, and improves back in grade second up, and getting back on firmer footing. Watch the market aboard 8. Feirme Prince down in weight third-up after having a tough run at Dubbo; while metro mare 10. Successful is the best of the rest, resuming behind two trials.
How to play it: Up To Mischief to win
BEST BETS:
R2 1. JOEY D'OR
R8 7. UP TO MISCHIEF
BEST VALUE:
R6 3. AKAKA FALLS
