Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1100m):
We start a big and wide meeting with the maiden sprinters on a track expected to stay in heavy range with rain sticking around. Plenty of chances in the opener headed by Snitzel filly 10. Kai Tak who resumes for a second prep behind a couple of eye-catching winning trials. Took on some handy metro fields back in autumn when well beaten, but looks to have strengthened and matured significantly. Will likely settle well off the speed from a wide barrier, and should get the necessary speed and pressure up front to allow her to get home.
Dangers: Big watch on debutant Exceed And Excel colt 1. Exsensible who draws off the track, but has been strongly fitted with several trials over the last few months, winning the majority of them. Sooboog colt 2. Chain Of Gold resumes for a new metro stable off two handy trials, and has natural speed. Keep a close watch on 6. Where's The Fire who went back to the trials after a fair debut at the provincials. Include Demerit three-year-old 5. Rippin' Ruis on debut; and 7. Vancouver's Crown resuming; in wider exotics.
How to play it: Kai Tak to win and first four 1,2,10/1,2,5,6,7,10/1,2,5,6,7,10/1,2,5,6,7,10
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1100m):
Staying at the distance, and in a very tough race, keen at the value around Savabeel filly 11. Samurai Dream on debut for a leading metro yard behind two strong & progressive trials. Showed good speed in the latest one before holding on nicely to finish right behind her stablemate who enjoyed the softer run, with a big gap back to third.
Dangers: After two runs into his first proper prep, Godolphin colt 1. Silvanito can strike third-up with blinkers added, although the drop back in trip in these conditions is a little concern. Like the way 4. Take The Kitty closed off at big odds here when fresh behind a smart winner, and blinkers have also been applied. Watch the betting on 10. Kobenhavn resuming off a nine month spell for a strong stable behind two progressive trials.
How to play it: Samurai Dream each way
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 3 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):
Intriguing battle for the older maidens, and a real arm-wrestle for favouritism looms between two early fancies. Very much with Nicconi four-year-old 5. Nickelback who hit the line impressively from well back at this track behind a winner who is destined for bigger targets. That was his first run for 11 weeks, and with natural fitness improvement and more ground, he's the one to beat. Has only missed a place in five runs since debuting more than nine months ago.
Dangers: Naturally, home track five-year-old 6. Phearson is a big threat after sticking on strong here in his first run for six months. Stays at the distance, and being by Exosphere right at home on rain-affected ground. Likely gap to the rest headed by Denman four-year-old 4. Master Right who debuts behind two quiet trials; and 10. Edna who is hard fit and can run into a place from a sound draw.
How to play it: Nickelback to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):
Lightly raced metro filly 11. Cabaca was very strong late from the back second-up in a provincial maiden after doing plenty of early work. Shapes well here over 100m further carrying 1kg less, especially with a couple of the early rivals very unlikely to run.
Dangers: Gap to the rest headed by improving five-year-old 4. Zedly fourth-up; and three-year-old 9. Reisinger who improves third-up back to provincial level.
How to play it: Cabaca to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):
If ever an improving provincial galloper is ready to break through, it's Wandjina four-year-old 6. El Bravo supremely placed fourth-up in suitable going. Has attacked the line late in his last couple at Kembla, and gets a nice weight pull over his main rival.
Dangers: Tough and consistent 1. Noble Attack has tactical speed, and has beaten all bar the winner in four runs this prep, the last couple by a whisker. Still has to carry 59kg up a further 200m in trip. Keep safe 11. Mehajir who will drift back from the inside gate third-up, but has a powerful finish given room; while both improving 10. Kirameki fourth-up; and lightly raced mare 14. World Atlas third-up; can add big value to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: El Bravo to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1500m):
Good depth in this. Progressive six-year-old 3. Diamond Diesel has made great progress in his first Australian prep, and draws to strike again. Surged home for consecutive wins at the provincials before tackling tougher Saturday BM 72 Midway grade, finishing well into a place only 12 days ago, and boasts superior wet track credentials.
Dangers: Tough provincial six-year-old 1. Dimaggio has never raced better stepping up in distance. Charged home from the back for a dominant fresh win at Kembla before being ridden much closer here only a week ago, sticking on strong to miss by a nose. Weighted to his best now. Well travelled mare 2. Glamour Fox needs to improve, but will find this a little easier than a metro BM 72 where she did it tough from the wide gate. Consistent four-year-old 5. Oakfield Storm resumes behind two trials, and heads the rest.
How to play it: Diamond Diesel to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):
Not much separates the top few in this competitive dash, although hard to go past exciting four-year-old 2. Shines resuming for only his third start and first in NSW. Cruised home on debut back in autumn as an odds-on fancy at Geelong, and his open class trial win 23 days ago when he came home in one of the quicker last 600m times of the morning, smacked of one ready to go. Bred to relish rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Honest metro filly 4. Acappella Sun is on the quick back-up after fighting hard into a close placing here in BM 64 grade; while both 1. Oxford Vision behind a tough first-up provincial win when backed into a short-priced favourite; and 8. Sinaloa returning behind two smart trial wins; are well in the mix.
How to play it: Shines to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 8 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):
Some talented ones here. Exciting three-year-old 10. Estilette bolted in a country maiden from the front at her second start, and can measure right up to this level.
Dangers: Capable four-year-old 3. Camino Real is a threat returning off two controlled trials. Progressed nicely through last pep, and should enjoy a charmed run around midfield with cover from this draw. Include underrated 2. Yumi first-up in wider exotics having been scratched from Rosehill on Wednesday to be saved for this.
How to play it: Estilette to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 9 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):
The boys' edition caps off a big meeting, and again there's very little between the leading contenders. Like improving stallion 3. Garmish at the value third-up and back in grade from a handy closing run in deeper metro class. Naturally back up in weight, but ridden quietly from the wide draw, he can thunder over the top of these.
Dangers: Keep safe lightly raced 6. Persevere who jumped to the front and gave nothing else a chance in a country maiden 20 days ago, and bred to relish the wet. Lightly raced four-year-old 5. Fuller is a big watch second-up returning for her first outing in NSW. Disappointed in a metro BM 70 in Victoria, and climbs sharply in weight for this weaker grade. Both US-bred colt 7. Cool Kaap first-up from the inside draw; and 9. Union Army who stormed home for a dominant third-up maiden win; must go through trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Garmish each way and trifecta 3,5,6/3,5,6,7,9/3,5,6,7,9
Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS:
R3 5. NICKELBACK
R4 11 CABACA
BEST VALUE
R5 6. EL BRAVO
