After Round 24 threw up a host of upsets, a little bit of normality in the last seven days.
The bottom three from two weeks ago are back in the basement after flutters of hope, Arsenal's five-point lead has been restored, and the race for European spots remains hot. Chelsea and Villa look to be the only sides with little to play for in the next 12 weeks, with forlorn hopes of European football and no threat of relegation.
It will be interesting to see how the likes of Southampton and Spurs respond to shock FA Cup exits midweek to lower league sides. Also on the horizon for many clubs is the three tiers of European football to be played next week – conceivably all four English clubs left in the Champions League could be out the door come Thursday morning; Man City is still favoured to get through but Chelsea, Tottenham, and Liverpool are backs-to-the-wall.
A very interesting set of matches to dissect – some look straight-forward but others look a bit tricky.
MANCHESTER CITY v NEWCASTLE: Saturday 4 March 11.30pm.
After throwing away two points at Forest, Man City made sure of a maximum return at Bournemouth last weekend, putting the result beyond doubt before half-time. A soft midweek win over Bristol City in the FA Cup ends a fortnight of games in all competitions that they have been expected to win comfortably, without always achieving that result.
Newcastle will be a sterner test, but their season has well and truly come off the rails, losing the Carabao Cup final last Sunday and winning just once in seven outings since Boxing Day in the EPL. With only three goals scored in those seven fixtures, it is easy to see where the problem lies. Guimaraes' absence has been felt, although he did return at Wembley.
The Magpies have not defeated Man City away from home since 2000, losing the last 13 straight at the Etihad. The downward spiral of what looked a magnificent season for Howe's men will probably continue here, and the top-four spot is looking more tenuous by the week.
Prediction: Manchester City win (1.45)
ARSENAL v BOURNEMOUTH: Sunday 5 March 2.00am.
Since their loss to City, the Gunners have responded like true title contenders with a hat-trick of wins and nine goals along the way. Partey is back and Jesus on the training ground so things look a lot brighter in north London than they did in mid-February. The 4-0 midweek win over Everton was clinical, although for the first 40 minutes they looked a little lethargic in attack until Saka produced a beauty to break the deadlock.
Poor Bournemouth clawed their way out of the bottom three a couple of weeks back, only to look at the fixture list and see Man City and Arsenal coming up back-to-back. A 4-1 loss last weekend just about summed up the game, and a similar result here looks on the cards, adding to a miserable season on the road.
Prediction: Arsenal win (1.25)
ASTON VILLA v CRYSTAL PALACE: Sunday 5 March 2.00am.
Villa ended a poor run of three losses and 11 goals conceded with a gritty away win at Everton last time around. Although second-best for good parts of the first half, they were far more progressive with the ball in the second stanza and were clearly superior. A clean sheet was a nice turnaround, albeit against one of the meekest attacking outfits in the league. Home fans have cheered just one win in their last five games at Villa Park, so Emery's talented squad will be keen to keep the ball rolling.
Palace hasn't won a game in 2023 but five draws against sides in the top half of the competition has kept them just out of danger. The possible return of talisman striker Zaha will be a big shot in the arm for the Eagles, who play attractive football but have scored just four times in their last eight games.
Villa Park hasn't been kind to Palace of late, with three losses and two draws since their last win at the old ground in 2013. However, this mid-table clash gives them a great opportunity to put relegation firmly in the rear-view mirror. It should be an absorbing clash; a sixth draw from their last seven games is a real possibility.
Prediction: Draw (3.20)
BRIGHTON v WEST HAM: Sunday 5 March 2.00am.
Brighton had last weekend off then came out midweek and progressed to the sixth round of the FA Cup with a win at Stoke. Their luckless defeat against Fulham on 18 February was their third home defeat in the last five, and followed a run of solid form that had amassed 14 points from seven games. The Seagulls have only lost two in a row once in the league all year and are unlikely to add to that record with the visit of West Ham, who haven't won in the last five clashes on the south coast despite superiority on the ladder during that time.
The Hammers climbed out of the bottom three with a 4-0 home win against Forest in round 25, but it took them 71 minutes to break the dead-lock in what was a pretty ordinary affair until that point. Some sort of revival looked to be gaining momentum in their Cup tie at Old Trafford on Wednesday night, but three late goals from Man U doused the celebrations.
West Ham has won once on the road this season. Against one of their jinx teams it is hard to tip them with any confidence; Brighton's speed and sharpness will be too much.
Prediction: Brighton win (1.75)
CHELSEA v LEEDS: Sunday 5 March 2.00am.
The train-wreck of a season for Chelsea reaches new lows every week. Another dry run at Tottenham last week and two conceded, with sloppy defending largely to blame. Although he is past his best, Thiago Silva's injury will not help the cause.
Potter continues to try new combinations, as he often did at Brighton, and the lack of stability is clearly a problem. Just pick your best 11 Graham; there's not a bad pool of talent to call on, and give them three or four weeks together – maybe they will click.
Leeds brought a long win drought to an end against Southampton last weekend for new manager Javi Gracia to again put their heads above the relegation tide. It wasn't the most convincing display against struggling opposition, but the Elland Road crowd lifted them sufficiently. Away from home they have picked up just two points from their last six games.
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result – my insanity is to pick Chelsea at home to finally bring some joy after two wins from their last 15.
Prediction: Chelsea win (1.65)
WOLVES v TOTTENHAM: Sunday 5 March 2.00am.
Wolves were outclassed at Anfield on Wednesday night to make it three without a win, their worst run since the World Cup. Their designated #9, whoever that may be from week to week, has not scored this season, which is clearly a massive issue for the club. With just 24 points on the board, they are nine less than their previous worst season since promotion in 2018/19.
Tottenham will be out to do what they haven't managed all season; win three in a row. Chelsea created a few chances last week but, in the end, Spurs were hungrier and more clinical. Kane continues to be a regular source of important goals and, without him, it would be a different season for the north London club.
Wolves hasn't managed a win over Tottenham at Molineux since 2010, with four losses and two draws in that period. It was that man Kane who was the difference when the sides met in August. A shock FA Cup departure against Championship side Sheffield Utd midweek might have been a timely wake-up call if complacency was about to creep into the Tottenham squad. Despite having one eye on a crucial Champions League return leg against Milan on Wednesday evening, Spurs can get the prize and further stake their claim for a top-four spot.
Prediction: Tottenham win (2.20)
SOUTHAMPTON v LEICESTER: Sunday 5 March 4.30am.
The Saints' revival was fleeting, with defeat on the road against Leeds last week then the ignominy of a loss at St Mary's to League Two Grimsby Town in the FA Cup on Wednesday. An inexperienced caretaker manager at the wheel can't help in the circumstances – they should never have sacked Ralph. The side has still only won once at home this season, losing the last five there on the bounce.
Leicester's season can be put neatly into two categories: form against the top sides and form against the rest. Six of their seven wins have come against bottom-half sides. Having said that, they suffered a 2-1 loss in this reverse fixture in August, and as recently as Tuesday they were bundled out of the FA Cup at home by Championship side Blackburn Rovers. Without Maddison they are shaky conveyances.
The Foxes are undefeated at their last five trips to St Mary's, including that infamous 9-0 massacre in 2019. However, they are too unpredictable to tip with any confidence, even against this opposition.
Prediction: Draw (3.20)
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v EVERTON: Monday 6 March 1.00am.
A massive match in the relegation fight.
Averaging a point a game will usually ensure survival. Forest is just ahead of schedule, thanks largely to their form at home which becomes more of a fortress for them as the weeks tick by. They have collected 16 points at the City Ground in their last eight in an unbeaten run that includes facing off with four sides in the top half. Their effort at West Ham last weekend was pretty poor, and the capitulation once they went behind a little out of character.
Everton went toe-to-toe with Arsenal midweek but after Saka's strike it was one-way traffic. Similarly, they matched Villa at home last weekend but lacked the strike-power to give themselves a chance. Since Dyche's arrival they have won twice, and been beaten by Liverpool, Villa and Arsenal; it's not disastrous form.
I may be off the mark but perhaps in their current table position Forest may feel a little comfortable for the first time this season. Conversely, this is a must win for Everton. I expected the home side to be dominant favourites, but the bookies have it about line-ball.
Prediction: Everton win (2.80)
LIVERPOOL v MANCHESTER UTD: Monday 6 March 3.30am.
One of the great English football rivalries and, in the past six or seven years, it has been Liverpool who has been getting the results and have mostly held the loftier status. Man Utd's last win at Anfield was in 2015; since then it has been three draws and three wins to the home side.
Since the turn of 2023, the Reds only wins have come against Wolves, Everton, and an out-of-sorts Newcastle. Importantly, their best performances have been saved for Anfield (ignoring the Real Madrid rout). Slowly the injured players are returning and enjoying some game time. Nunez and Salah are back scoring goals, Jota is fit again, and Gakpo is starting to find his way. But, despite a run of four league games without conceding, they are questionable defensively against quality opposition (Alexander-Arnold and Matip exhibits A and B).
Man Utd absorbed the early punches then brutally put away Leicester at home last weekend. A similar effort saw off West Ham in the FA Cup midweek. There is a self-belief in the squad and the key players are all firing. An impressive 63% of their goals scored have been in the second-half, so they are never out of the contest.
The reverse fixture was a pivotal game for Ten Hag's men as they won 2-1 at home in round three, putting behind them a couple of bad losses to launch the campaign. Liverpool rarely lose at home, and, of late, Man Utd rarely lose anywhere. Only one way to go.
Prediction: Draw (3.50)
BRENTFORD v FULHAM: Tuesday 7 March 7.00am.
A great contest to end the round between the two London sides that few would have picked as European contenders at the start of the season.
The Bees are on an impressive run unparalleled in the league which sees them unbeaten since 23 October, and without defeat at home since 18 September. Unless Arsenal collapse, Arteta will be Manager of the Year, but Thomas Frank is a close second along with Marco Silva. The missing piece of the Brentford puzzle was solid defence, but that has been shored up. Since the World Cup break, they have conceded just five times. Incredibly, the last time their defence was breached in the first half was a 45th minute strike by Phil Foden on 12 November, nine matches ago. They have come from behind with late goals in their last two games, a sign of mental toughness.
Despite the above accolades, Fulham sit two spots and four points ahead of Brentford, although they have played two extra games. They were nowhere near their best against Wolves last weekend, with their latest go-to man Manor Solomon scoring a for the third straight game to save the Cottagers. With Mitrovic still out, he has become a key inclusion for Marco Silva.
As Brentford didn't play last weekend, it will be 15 days between matches for them. After a busy few weeks that might be a blessing. Initial reaction was to tip Brentford, but even-money surprised me a bit, so the draw is better value.
Prediction: Draw (3.40)
