The rail is in the +11m 1200m-W/Post; +6m Remainder position and the track was posted as a soft 6 on Tuesday morning.
R1 Neil Herbert Maiden, 1120m
Difficult betting race to kick off the night. I'm very interested in the toppy here from the Siggy Carr stable – Balcaskie (1). Only had the one trial and that was over three months ago but I quite liked the way he acquitted himself and I note he has had the ultimate gear change and been gelded. Not ideally drawn for a debutant however has the services of Liam Riordan and was hunted out of the gates to sit outside the leader in his trial.
Her Thoughts (6) has had plenty of chances but this is not a strong field and she has decent second-up form placing twice out of two starts. Finished seventh of 13 on Derby Day but wasn't beaten that far and important to note that both the winner and second horse have since won.
The Cameron Thompson trained mare Kissless (7) has been given plenty of time to mature and comes into this having four trials since late 2020 without a race start yet. In her last trial at Longford, she was slightly tardy out of the machines but put herself up into the 'race' and wasn't asked for a great deal at the finish. One to watch.
Ding Ding (9) gets every possible chance to break her maiden tonight. Drawn tricky, however, has a decent jockey on her back in Codi Jordan. She has been known to go forward so if Codi can ping the lids and put herself in a position a win from this filly wouldn't surprise. Placed twice out of only 6 starts certainly has more runs on the board than some of her competition here.
Staking Strategy: The more I look at this race the more I like Balcaskie (1). My only concern was the time between his first and only trial and tonight when he takes the track for the first time. Not unusual for Siggy to put them in a race without a trial so I trust her judgement, especially in a fairly average race. 1 unit to win on Balcaskie (1)
R2 R M Bertram Maiden, 1620m
If it wasn't for an outstanding performance by Charlie Bucket last start, Blonde Suspect (2) might not be a maiden and eligible for this race. The John Blacker-trained gelding gets his chance tonight, he's always around the money, drawn the inside and I imagine he starts favourite.
At face value, Bellanive (10) may have looked a bit disappointing last start however I think she is ready for the mile now and gets her chance to redeem herself tonight.
The Sarah Cotton-trained Conumdrum (3) has been given plenty of time to mature and at five years old is only having his fourth start. Has been ultra-consistent in his short career and perhaps should have finished closer last time out if not for getting stuck wide from an outside gate. Gets the services of Sarah's newly appointed apprentice Lizzie Annells who has made a splash in the short time she has been riding in Tasmania. Each-way all day.
Almighty Virtue (1) caught the eye last start rattling home for fourth after getting severely checked in the early stages of his race. Drawn a tricky gate for the King of King Island Tommy Doyle but is a versatile galloper and the extra 200m suits him down to the ground.
Staking Strategy: On paper, Blonde Suspect does look the one but it's hard to get too excited over a horse that is still a maiden after 17 starts. I'm keen to stick with Bellanive (10) I really think the 1600m will suit her and I like how she finished off over the seven last time. 1 unit to win Bellanive (10)
R3 Margot Smart Class 1 Hcp, 1620m
Quite possibly the worst race of the night and not one I'm keen to get heavily involved with.
I think you can forgive La Louve (4) last start, he drew wide over the 1400m which is almost impossible. Tonight, he has to step up to the mile which is a distance he has tried three times and yet to run a place however he is fitter and going better now. Drawn well and could run a race at decent odds.
I'm not a fan of tipping horses in a Class 1 straight after they have won their maiden, however, this is a very weak race and you have to give Geegees Hisword (1) credit. David Pires sticks with the colt which is a positive and the Stu Gandy stable is flying. First try at the trip however hard to knock in this.
Would prefer Belmista (2) back over 1400m and am not convinced he really stays a mile, however, is rock hard fit and will roll forward from the draw, might be enough in the tank to hold onto a place even if he doesn't quite get the trip.
I've thrown Launnie Nights (5) into the mix as a place chance, I don't get as excited by him as some but he always attracts interest. In saying that I'm not a big fan of horses dropping back in distance and the fact he took a tumble last start tripping over Captain Morgan at the winning post, concerns me. If you like him, I won't talk you out of an investment but no more than a place chance for mine.
Staking Strategy: I don't like the race at all but 1 unit each way La Louve (4) if forced. I believe he is one of only a few horses Rodney Seymour has in his care and we might get a price due to that. 1 unit each-way La Louve (4)
R4 Rod Thirkell-johnston Bm68 Hcp, 1620m
Did You Decide (6) ticks all the boxes in this and you really can't fault his form – five starts for two wins and three placings. Draws 1 tonight which will allow him to settle closer to the speed and gets in well at the weights. Hard to beat and one of the better bets of the program.
Many punters were left disappointed after Imagine Howe (4) went around favourite on Launceston Cup Day and finished outside the placings. The 2100m may not have been to his liking and Adam has dropped him back to his pet distance today, if that run didn't take the stuffing out of him, he won't be far away.
Romary (2) looks back to her best after a narrow but impressive victory last start over this trip. She jumps in weight but gets the 3kg claim for apprentice Chloe Wells, I'm just not convinced she is an apprentice's horse and I would prefer to be on the others mentioned above with that concern.
O'Reilly Mcluke (5) looks to be our likely leader and we will have more of an idea of how the track is playing come race 4 as to whether or not that is a big advantage. Good last time and drops in weight, maps well and an each-way chance. Zewinna (7) has been beaten at short odds her last three now and is becoming costly for punters. Steps up the mile which suits and certainly has the ability should she want to win. Zeva Royale (9) is in career-best form, a drop back to the mile isn't ideal but is going very well this prep.
Staking Strategy: Very keen on Did You Decide, everything seems to look in his favour and keen to play here. 4 units to win on Did You Decide (6)
R5 Ladbroke It! Bm62 Hcp, 1220m
Another hard race to decipher with many chances. I've settled on Upset (11) who despite finishing midfield last time out over this trip was only beaten less than a length. I think he will go forward tonight from the middle gate and that might be an advantage with the rail out.
Fast Thinker (7) is an interesting runner debuting for Kelvin Hamilton. He's very well bred by So You Think out of an Exceed And Excel mare, a winner of four races, however, hasn't been in the state very long only boasting one trial for his Tasmanian resume. In the trial he showed early speed and wasn't beaten far by some handy gallopers, Codi Jordan takes the reins after riding him in the trial, the market will be the best guide but he has shown in the past he goes ok fresh.
Perkins (12) is ultra-consistent of late but has only won the one race and that was over two years ago now. He gets back so the wide draw is not a great concern however it may not be the place to be should the track be playing towards the front which it can do with the rail out significantly.
Baria (10) showed some ability a few starts back but hasn't gone on with it. A weaker race tonight and will push forward from the draw which may prove an advantage should Lizzie get across easily enough.
Coeur De Lyon (1) resumes here but interestingly his only two wins have been on the Tapeta surface. Move On Over (9) comes off a maiden victory last time but has to step up an extra 100m when in the past, her only try at the trip was beaten well over 6L. Gee Gee Lanett (3) obviously the best horse in the race but it's clear her career-best days are behind her, the reason I note her tonight is the booking of D Pires. I wonder if the strong rider has been booked to see if she is still interested in racing or is ready to be a mum.
Staking Strategy: Another difficult race to assess with many question marks. I have Upset on top but won't let Fast Thinker run around without a financial interest. 1 unit to win on both Upset (11) and Fast Thinker (7)
R6 Alison Archer Bm64 Hcp F&m, 1220m
If you're having a quaddie and you are still alive I really hope you have hit the F button for this race.
Eight Margaritas (4) resumes here after six months off. She comes into this fresh from winning a trial late Feb. Goes well first up, drawn nicely, hard race but certainly has the ability to notch up her third win here tonight.
There are certainly no Rebel Factor's or Emily's competing in this BM64 tonight so Gee Gee Queen Bee (1) will certainly find this a lot easier. Gets the services of David Pires who will give her a gun ride, and I expect improvement.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Troy Baker send Hannah's Song (2) from the middle gate. I expect the track to be favouring those on speed by now and Hannah seems to go best when ridden that way. Could see her leading the whole race despite the heavy weight.
After a narrow defeat last start behind the promising Nicco The Greek, Magic Typhoon (6) comes into this race nicely. John Blacker opted for a Longford trial after her Derby Day defeat and a confidence booster winning her trial by over 3L is sure to put her right in this. Maps well and loves the six furlongs, hard to beat.
The interesting runner here is Klatten (8). Scored her soul Tassie W last time out when first up for new trainer John Blacker. This is no harder, gets in well at the weights with EBB sticking with the mare. No reason she can't win again.
Staking Strategy: Another difficult race to assess and not a race I really want to be involved in. Happy to side with both Eight Margaritas and Hannah's Song. 1 unit to win on both Eight Margaritas (4) and Hannah's Song (2)
R7 S B Freeland Bm62 Hcp, 1450m
Zulu Angel (5) put two wins together in short succession and then was far from disgraced when sixth in a $100k three-year-old race on Launceston Cup Day. Beaten less than 1.5L he acquitted himself very well when back to the shorter trip. Steps up to the 1450m again today and is one of the main fancies. My only concern here is he may get shuffled back on the fence and be hard to make up ground in the latter part. With that in mind, I wouldn't want to take any short price.
Last start when drawing the car park Malevolent (6) was actually very very good only getting beat 1.5L. He maps well from the draw and if he can get the luck in running, he can notch up another win for connections and punters alike.
I don't mind one at odds here in the John Luttrell-trained Renascence (9). He's a horse that will go forward and has no weight on his back after Chloe Wells's 3kg claim. Could pinch a winning break and despite not showing much at this venue before he could be a sneaky little chance.
Fanciful Flying (7) won well last start over this track/trip and Liam Riordan takes over from Winona Costin tonight, only goes up 1kg from that race and no reason he can't win again. Gee Gee Miss Quita (3) must be mentioned in the preview but I don't like horses drawn wide over the 1400m trip at Launceston. Going to make her assignment a little bit harder but will be in the market so cannot ignore.
Staking Strategy: Difficult race to round the evening out. Hard to separate Zulu Angel and Malevolent. I'll go with Malevolent due to the map, I think he will get an easier run-in transit than Zulu Angel and on that I trust he will come out on top. Love a horse that can go forward with no weight and attempt to pinch a race and I can see them being the tactics with Renascence. 2 units to win on Malevolent (6) and 1 unit each way Renascence (9).
