Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (900m):
We start over the short course, and home track three-year-old 3. Jo Jo Sun by Press Statement can go one better second-up. Was well supported from $3.60 into $2.60 before showing good speed until collared in the final strides here, and draws to do even less early work this time.
Dangers: Big watch on resuming Not A Single Doubt filly 9. Melissa who failed in a one-off debut run against stronger last spring, but tuned up for this with a smart trial win. Gap to the rest headed by 4. Keysborough fitter now second-up off a long break; and 8. Lazulite who worked home okay in that same race as the top selection, and draws the inside.
How to play it: Jo Jo Sun to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 2 MIDWAY MAIDEN HCP (1300m):
Keen to ride home here with emerging and lightly raced local three-year-old 1. Zoukeeper second-up and back a little in distance. Was very gallant on debut boxing on for a long way after stalking the speed from a middle gate, and with that extra fitness and a stronger rider hopping on, he shapes well.
Dangers: Provincial colt 10. Villa Tino is nearing a win after beating all bar the winner here 12 days ago, although hasn't exactly attacked the line in four runs this prep. Keep safe stablemate to the top selection 2. Ambassadors who stuck on strong second-up after working hard early, and drawn to get a softer run in transit. Improving 7. Mystic Diva is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Zoukeeper to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):
Progressive three-year-old 5. Crazy Russian has been knocking on the door in three starts, and was stiff not to win at Kembla third-up, losing his position badly on the turn, then striking traffic trouble before hitting the line late. Not surprisingly the regular rider has been replaced for his fourth start over 100m further, and winkers go on.
Dangers: Watch the betting on 3. Allhallowtide who can improve sharply at his second start from a much softer draw. Big watch too on resuming Fastnet Rock filly 9. An Charraig who has enough ability, and given two improving trials. Include 7. Yet He Moves improving into his second start; and 11. Kokoshnik up in distance; through exotic bets.
How to play it: Crazy Russian to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special
Race 4 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1200m):
Promising Pierro three-year-old 2. Cool Jakey can win again after an impressive debut performance. Sat behind the speed and finished off hard in heavy ground at Warwick Farm, easily accounting for a hot favourite and running one of the better final 600m splits of the day.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for 5. Strombus second-up, although likely to drift a long way back again from the draw. Last start provincial BM 68 winner 3. Pad Thai third-up; and 6. The Great Houdini who drew the fence fourth-up, with winkers replacing blinkers; head the rest in a race of only moderate depth.
How to play it: Cool Jakey to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1200m):
Another race lacking depth and quality for the grade, and that augurs well for talented and lightly raced filly 4. Secaution who can go back-to-back second-up. Tracked the speed before surging past to beat a handy metro maiden field, running a very good final 600m split for heavy ground. Naturally up in weight from a wider barrier, but plenty of time on this bigger circuit to balance up and finish over the top.
Dangers: Keep very safe provincial filly 11. Justina who draws to get a cosy run right behind the speed third-up. Gap to the rest headed by 10. Emerald Cut who won on debut at the provincials; while 9. So You Battle resuming; and 13. Viennoiserie second-up; go in trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Secaution to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 78 HCP (900m):
Underrated country mare 4. Miss Kono is suited coming back to this scamper distance deep into the prep. Gave nothing else a chance from the front in a handy CL3 two runs back before chasing well into a place in a BM 84 country feature.
Dangers: Speedy mare and hot favorite 2. Alicia Roma made light work stepping up to a BM 68 here over the same trip, jumping to the front and kept going. Shapes as the natural leader from this gate, but can be very weak over the last little bit. Keep safe 6. Markwell Dreamer who hasn't had a lot of luck beating all but the winner in his last four starts; while 3. Flora and 8. Jumping Power Two are both capable of running into the minor money.
How to play it: Miss Kono each way
Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Race 7 POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL-MIDWAY CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFIER (1400m):
Naturally a wide open feature with plenty of chances, although the leading home track stable of Kris Lees threatens to dominate the race. Keen on one of them, six-year-old and ex Irish-based 3. Kalapour first-up since late winter. Has looked strong winning both trials up to 1200m, and last autumn was a middle distance winner over 1800m in provincial BM 78 grade. Will settle back from a wide draw, but capable of sustaining a powerful 600m finishing run.
Dangers: Big watch on stablemate 2. Acquitted who comes to hand quickly and has had two soft trials; while the third of the Lees' runners, 4. Geo is also first-up off two progressive trials. Another one drawn out although he would prefer it wetter, 5. True Crime had been right in the money in three runs up to BM 78 metro level before a disqualification in a Midway BM 72 at Rosehill. Keep safe 10. Sebrenco second-up from a low draw and dropping sharply in weight; while 1. Contributingfactor third-up with blinkers coming off goes in exotic plays.
How to play it: Kalapour each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 PROVINCIAL BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1400m):
Wide open battle to finish. Progressive four-year-old 11. Bully For You looms as the biggest value in the race. Has shown sharp improvement in his last couple, both times charging home from the back to miss narrowly. Will have to follow a similar path here from the outside barrier, but he's rock hard fit, and well treated under 56.5kg over a 100m further.
Dangers: Lightly raced home tracker 6. Convincebility has won both starts this prep, but this is a decent step up from country CL1, and he looks poorly weighted under 58.5kg. Provincial mare 1. Buba has a tidy fresh record, and trialled strongly, but much prefers rain-affected ground and has to carry a big weight. Include 7. Rumpshaker and 10. Par Five in exotic bets.
How to play it: Bully For You each way
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R3 5. CRAZY RUSSIAN
R4 2. COOL JAKEY
BEST VALUE:
R2 1. ZOUKEEPER
