The rail moves to the +12m position after being +8m for the meeting last Sunday. Fine weather is forecast so a good rated surface is expected.
R1 Aviso Tas Pink Cup – May 28 Class 1 Hcp, 1100m
I don't think Eyes For Ash (2) really stays the 1200m so happy to draw a line through his last start performance and focus on the one before where he narrowly missed a photo over this shorter trip. Drawn well to either lead or sit off them and with the rail out 12 metres that's bound to be an advantage.
Geegees Gemstone (3) was the subject of a betting plunge when first up and despite doing everything wrong still managed to win by nearly three lengths. Failed the next start when up in trip and then thrown in the deep end contesting the Listed Tasmanian Guineas. He has had a decent letup since and goes into this fresh and more experienced. On ability can give this a real shake.
Scratched from last week's apprentice race, Far Away Hit (5) lines up today instead. Barrier 1 is probably not ideal for this mare as she will get back but comes into this fresh and fit from two trials. Sole win was on this track and I note she has a few little gear changes. The market will be the best guide, but a win would not surprise.
Devil Sun (1) did everything right when saluting first up earlier in the month. Given time to recover from that run and naturally goes into a Class 1 today. Top jockey Brendon McCoull retains the ride, drawn the widest in gate 6 but it's a small field and he should settle in the first half of the field.
Staking Strategy: I think the market will be your best guide in this but I have Eyes For Ash (2) on top. Did everything bar win two starts back and back to a more suitable distance I think he can win again. If the money comes for Geegees Gemstone it would be hard to ignore. 1 unit to win on both Eyes For Ash (2) and Geegees Gemstone (3)
R2 Winning Edge Presentations Maiden, 1100m
Tough maiden to assess with a few chances. Her Thoughts (6) looks the obvious boasting eight places from 16 starts and gets her chance to break the maiden here. Drawn badly in gate 11 but is a versatile galloper who can adapt. Last start was promising and this is no harder.
Squazeemoto (3) hasn't ventured down south before but has found an easy enough race to get his first win. Rowan Hamer's team is going very well and the six-year-old wasn't beaten far last start.
Back to the 1100m certainly suits Elmajay (9) and she gets yet another chance to break through in this. I think the 1100m is as far as this filly wants it and if things go her way a win wouldn't surprise.
The interesting runner here is Not Rich Enuff (2). Boasts only one trial and despite it being a winning trial we haven't seen the four-year-old in nearly two years. Drawn well and gets top jockey Anthony Darmanin in the saddle, would have preferred to see him at the trials more recently before investing race day.
Staking Strategy: Very difficult punting race. Given that we are back to the 1100m and she gets the home track advantage I will give Elmajay another chance. 1 unit to win and 3 units to place on Elmajay (9)
R3 Kevin Sharkie Mdn/cl1, 1600m
Not only did he run in the Listed Tasmanian Derby last start but Happy Clan (2) was only beaten 0.7L. Given time to freshen up he drops back to the mile today, drawn nicely in barrier 5 which will give him the chance to either roll to the front or sit just off the pace. A big chance on his Derby performance.
Buel (8) backs up from last week and steps up to the mile for the first time. Super close finish over the 1400m last start and he gives the impression off that run that the extra 200m won't be an issue. Drawn nicely in 3, Hayley McCarthy takes the sit again and in a similar race to last week gets another chance to break the duck.
I was looking forward to seeing Aussie Warrior (3) over the 2100m last time but he was scratched from his event and lines up over the mile today instead. His form doesn't read overly well but I think he's a genuine stayer and once he gets the win on the board, he might go on with it. A roughie at odds.
Monte Bianco (6) has been a little hard to follow in recent times but certainly has the ability. Her run on Launceston Cup Day was excellent and then not beaten far the following start. Top rider Brendon McCoull in the saddle will give her every possible and one of the main chances for mine.
Staking Strategy: I really like Happy Clan, if he can take his derby performance into this, I think he can win but the shorter trip is a slight concern. Aussie Warrior is a horse I've been following so will have a couple of coins on him each-way as well. 1 unit to win on Happy Clan (2) and 1 unit each-way Aussie Warrior (3)
R4 Ladbroke It! Bm68 Hcp, 2100m
Barry Campbell's mare Zeva Royale (4) was going very well when racing up to the 2100m, she then dropped back to the mile and finished midfield. Back to 2100m today and on a track she has previously won at I think she is the one to beat. Drawn well, weighted well. Ticks a lot of boxes.
Miss Charlie Brown (1) was heavily backed and started favourite in the recent St Leger over 2400m, despite finishing third I think you could say she was disappointing and considering she has not won since the Strutt Stakes in 2022, she is proving to be costly. The best horse in the race and you can't leave her out of the multiples but need to see her back winning before I can be confident enough to have a straight-out bet on her.
Flying before the St Leger, Sunset Gun (2) will appreciate being back in a BM68. Ran well last time over the longer journey but may have found it a bridge too far. Much more suited here and if that run hasn't taken the stuffing out of her, could easily win again.
He's always in the market is Launnie Nights (7). Gets in on the minimum and with Chelsea's 1.5kg he won't know himself lugging the postage stamp. He does stay and with the lightweight, he gets his chance today.
Staking Strategy: Zeva Royale has been racing very well without winning and back up the 2100m today, and on a track she has previously been successful, I think she is a winning hope. Sunset Gun ran well last time over the longer journey but may have found it a bridge too far, much more suited here. 1 unit to win on both Zeva Royale (4) and Sunset Gun (2)
R5 Ladbrokes Mates Mode Class 3 Hcp, 1200m
Connections thought enough of Thelma (2) to have a crack at the Group 3 Vamos Stakes on Launceston Cup Day and despite being out of her grade she was beaten less than 5L. Back to a more suitable Class 3 today she has a good chance to record her fourth victory. From barrier 3 she should be able to get into a nice position either in front or just outside the leader and be able to dictate. Big chance today.
Verbano (3) showed a lot of promise as a two-year-old but her form tapered off as her career went on. Tried as a stayer early days but kept to the shorter trips later on. Gets her chance to re-find her winning form in this.
Under His Eye (6) has found one better in his last two tries but is an honest gelding who is never far away. Maps nicely to get a sit outside the speed and with a bit of luck can turn the tables and be the bride for once.
Despite a sixth out of eight on his form last start, Pristine Image (1) was beaten less than two lengths in a stronger race than this. Gets in well at the weights after the claim for the stable apprentice and in a small field is one for the multiples.
Staking Strategy: I really like Thelma. I thought she went very well in the Vamos after drawing wide and pushing forward to then not be beaten overly far. Much easier in this grade and maps well from the draw. 4 units to win on Thelma (2)
R6 Kevin Sharkie Bm68 Hcp, 1430m
As I said last week, you can't fault Gee Gee Miss Quita's (5) recent form and she won again last Sunday this track and distance. She goes up to a BM68 but only rises half a kilo from her last start victory, the one to beat again.
Ring Of Honour (3) has enjoyed his time back grass racing with a win and two seconds despite being trained on the carpet. Does have to travel south for the first time and contest barrier 10 but a chance on his recent form. Goes well this distance and an each-way chance for mine.
Ravage (8) hadn't won a race in a year before breaking through again last start. Goes up in grade from that win but has the form back on the board now and this isn't any harder.
Another horse that has lost her form a bit is Summer Fire (1). Certainly, has the ability but hasn't been showing us much this time in. Drawn a tricky gate but does need to improve. On her best wins this.
Staking Strategy: Hard to knock mares in form and on that I'm sticking with Gee Gee Miss Quita again. She was very good last week and this is no harder. 3 units to win on Gee Gee Miss Quita (5)
R7 Salters Hire Bm62 Hcp, 1000m
Open race for the final leg of the quaddie. Gee Gee Goldenlass (6) has twice won over the 1000m sprint and has won three out of her four starts on the Hobart track. Stu Gandy's team is going very well and I have her on top.
Champagne Cinders (4) won two starts back in Hobart giving Hayley McCarthy her comeback winner. She went on with it finishing midfield in a fillies and mares race in Launceston not being beaten far on that occasion. The 1000m may be slightly too short for her but that is the case for many of her opponents too. Maps well and is one of the main fancies.
The John Luttrell-trained Move On Over (2) is unbeaten since moving to the state. Both wins however have come on the Launceston track and this is her first start on the Hobart surface which can be a difficult track for some with the hill around the back. Hasn't done anything wrong and a win wouldn't surprise but dropping back 200m on an unknown track is a concern.
Quicken Up (5) resumes today and is fresh from two trial wins. Both her wins have come on the Tapeta so that is a question mark for this but she has decent enough form to have her in my top four. Would be much more confident if this was on the carpet and is bound to improve when she does get back onto it later this preparation.
Staking Strategy: Gee Gee Goldenlass has twice won over the 1000m sprint and has won three out of her four starts in Hobart. Looks to be hard to beat. 2 units to win on Gee Gee Goldenlass (6)
