Neil Evans' tips for Kembla Grange (Tuesday)

Track Heavy 8 and rail out 6m from 1100m to WP & 2m the remainder:

Kembla Grange in Australia.
 Kembla Grange in Australia. Picture: Steve Hart

Race 1 PROVINCIAL 3YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

We open up with a set weight sprint on a track that is unlikely to get out of heavy range with more showers forecast. Not much between the top fancies here, although settled on local filly 8. Rare Beauty getting back onto a bigger track second-up. Chased home well enough when resuming at Gosford, and while she's yet to fire on rain-affected ground, the pedigree is there being by Headwater out of a Sebring mare.

Dangers: Another one by Headwater, mare 4. Breadcrumbs has beaten all bar the winner in two runs this prep, bred to handle the going, and any inside draw disadvantage early can be off-set by the rail being pushed out a fair way. Home track mare 6. She's Jessie is also on the improve after being placed in both runs back, and despite only six runs into her career has plenty of heavy track experience. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Rare Beauty to win
Odds and Evens: Evens a special

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Out to the mile for the maidens, and keen on improving three-year-old 2. Allhallowtide with the blinkers going on at third start. Missed by a whisker when ridden closer at Newcastle three weeks back, and while this is his first outing on rain-affected ground, the Savabeel stock normally lap it up, and he's suitably drawn to get to the outside.

Dangers: Big watch on 3. Genetic Freak who has the blinkers coming off at third start in his first full prep, and also bred to get through the ground. Improving 7. We've Gotta Deel presents over the odds after four handy runs up to the mile to open his career; while 5. Star Legacy up in distance; and 11. La Sagrada fourth-up; are both capable of figuring in the minor money.

How to play it: Allhallowtide to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HCP (2000m):

Test of strength and tactics over this journey, and there's a sense of timing with improving and underrated metro five-year-old 7. Reliable Dude who can strike fifth-up. Charged late to miss by a whisker last time at Hawkesbury, and he's clearly more effective on wet ground. Drawn to stay off the fence and get to the middle in the straight.

Dangers: Lightly raced So You Think colt 2. Cut On A Dime has been thrown into Group 1 and 2 company last two after surging home to win his maiden on the Kensington track first-up. Naturally beaten under five lengths in the Phar Lap behind Zougotcha reads well for this, but wouldn't be diving into too short a price first time in heavy going under 59.5kg, and may go to Warwick Farm on Wednesday instead. Include 5. Brynner fifth-up; 8. Dalgarno down in weight; and 10. Arts at third start with key gear changes; in all trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Reliable Dude to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Plenty of chances here in a good quality maiden, but there's supreme value around metro filly 12. Silent Raindrops who resumes for only her third start behind two measured trials. Found the line from well off the speed in two runs last spring, and while she's never seen anything like a heavy surface, the wet track breeding is a stand-out, by Sebring out of a Stratum mare.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by Fastnet Rock filly 11. Salaasel also first-up off two forward trials, and the stable has made a string of gear changes. The market will tell a story with Toronado three-year-old 4. Lipscani who reloads via a handy trial after a fair debut effort six weeks ago, although also accepted for Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Including I Am Invincible filly 10. I Am Jade (accepted for Warwick farm) third-up after hitting the line impressively here 18 days ago; while 2. Hedge Fund fourth-up and trained on the track heads the rest.

How to play it: Silent Raindrops each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m):

Sticking strong with talented Randwick three-year-old 3. Sports Legend who has been held back since breaking through second-up on the Kensington track three weeks ago. Had previously gone under at the provincials as a hot favorite, but now he's tasted success, can take the next step. Bred to thrive in the going, and bolted in a trial nine weeks back on a Soft 7.

Dangers: Another one three weeks between runs, 4. Boston City is a tough sprinter, and drops back from deeper metro company fifth-up with gear changes. Keep safe ex-Victorian four-year-old 8. Thalursian who resumes off a six month spell in his first run for the new Team Hawkes stable, and has trialled well; while 5. Euros also returns via a trial, and a tough front-running win in BM 72 fillies and mares grade on New Year's Day.

How to play it: Sports Legend to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):

Very competitive market here for a testing all-girls battle. Capable provincial four-year-old 2. The Halo was in the money in three straight runs in and around this grade before working home okay in a tougher Provincial Midway C'ship Qualifier. Shoots back up sharply to 60.5kg, but hard fit and comfortable in the going.

Dangers: Exciting Vancouver three-year-old 13. Vancouver Queen jumped to the front at Muswellbrook on debut and blew her opposition away in good time, but is threatening to go around under the odds up in grade and weight, and being drawn off the track. Improving three-year-old 9. Resistable gets the winkers back on second-up. Watch for any first-up money for 5. Savagal behind two quiet trials; while 10. Verzenay fifth-up; and first-up country maiden winner 12. Miss Faberge both go in wider exotics.

How to play it: The Halo each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):

The boys' edition to close the card is not much easier. Liked the way progressive metro three-year-old 2. Athletica hit the line from well back first-up at Gosford. Took on good company last year as a two-year-old, and stepping out a further furlong here on a bigger track with some weight relief augurs well.

Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 11. Warby who closed hard from a long way out to claim his maiden second-up. Stays at the trip, but drawn very wide. No doubt 4. Capital Asset is fit enough to win this having swept home to land a provincial BM 68 before failing to hit the line in the Listed Canberra Guineas. Won his maiden here, but the inside barrier late in the day may be a pattern disadvantage. Watch the betting on lightly raced four-year-old and last start maiden winner 15. Grand Crusader ; while 6. Sorgente resumes as a gelding off two progressive trials.

How to play it: Athletica to win
Odds and Evens: Split


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